A multifaceted problem

Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and has a strategic location in the eastern part of the country because it links Europe with Asia and has important outlets to the sea, such as the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. 

This geographical position is at the same time conflictive: it borders Russia to the east through a border of 1,576 kilometres; Belarus to the north; Poland, Slovakia and Hungary to the west; Romania and Moldova to the southwest; and the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the south. 

Since 2014, with Russia's annexation of Crimea under the pretext of the separatist referendum, a border dispute has persisted between the two countries, and with pro-Russian separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk there are more than 409.3 kilometres of state border that Ukraine does not administer. 

But this goes beyond the security issue because this conflict can be evaluated from various points of view, be it economic, military, political or even geographical. Russia wants above all to reorganise its zone of influence. 

A new zone of influence would allow Russia to dominate a crucial part of international trade by controlling the exit to several important ports, not only with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

In the event of armed conflict with Ukraine, Putin already knows in advance that both NATO and the United States will impose severe trade and financial sanctions and a series of vetoes such as excluding the country from the SWIFT payment system; the way in which Russia could counterattack would be by raising the price of gas and cutting off its supply to Europe, which would consequently make the price of various raw materials even more expensive and end up translating into more inflation. 

On the subject

There are already those who see a certain familiar ring to the current situation. For Lithuania's Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, this is a "1938 moment for our generation" and we know that neutrality helps the oppressor, but never the victim. 

And then there is the Russian gas that reaches most homes, businesses and industries not only in Germany but also in other European countries. Spain is if anything one of the few exceptions not to be almost totally dependent on Russian gas because it has a more diversified energy basket with Algeria, Qatar, the United States, Trinidad and Tobago and Russia. 

The Nord Stream pipelines also known as the Russian-German Gas Pipeline has an annual supply capacity of 55 billion cubic metres of gas; the first branch has been operating since November 2011. For Europe it means cheap gas. 

At the same time, Nord Stream 2 is at a standstill, without a licence. Biden tried to sanction all the companies involved in its construction, but gave up after meeting last year with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, the tables may be turning.

And while Macron was talking to Putin in Moscow, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was talking to Biden in Washington; they met to discuss sanctions against Russia.

Biden threatened to shut down Nord Stream 2 even though the pipeline passes through German sovereignty. In fact, Zelensky himself wants to impose tough new sanctions on Russia and to cancel the certification of the new pipeline, which the German authorities have stopped for the time being. 

There are also strategic monetary interests at play here: Biden wants his European allies to show their loyalty by stopping buying Russian gas and opting for North American gas, which is more expensive and takes longer to arrive because it has to be transported; and Ukraine also wants to abort Nord Stream 2 because it will not bring it any benefits: around 4% of Ukraine's GDP is provided by transit quotas.

Unlike the other Russian pipelines that pass through Belarus and Ukraine and leave money in those territories from transit fees, the new 1,230-kilometre pipeline runs from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany and does not have to pass through Ukraine.

With an attack on Ukraine, Putin knows that the Nord Stream 2 licence would not be granted and Russia needs that annual revenue: 37 per cent of the gas imported by the EU is Russian and Russia exports 85 per cent of its gas reserves to the EU. It is the world's largest holder of gas reserves, so a war is the worst strategy for Putin.