Netanyahu ignores international pressure for a ceasefire

The death toll in Lebanon is already approaching 1,000; a few days ago a bomb fell on the Nabatiyeh town hall, killing its mayor Ahmed Kaheel and the civil servants who were there. 

United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) positions at a base near the village of Kafer Kela, a few kilometres from the Israeli town of Metula, have also come under fire (several times). 

‘Once again we see direct and apparently deliberate fire on a UNIFIL position and it is the duty of all actors to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property and to respect the inviolability of UN facilities,’ according to a statement issued by the UN condemning the attacks. 

The governments of France, Italy and Spain have expressed their indignation at the attacks; these countries provide troops to the UN peacekeepers. 

From the White House, President Joe Biden said he was asking the Israeli government not to attack the peacekeepers and to use caution in its offensive. 

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of a ‘deliberate attack’ that left several peacekeepers wounded and expressed his displeasure at the military manoeuvres ordered by Netanyahu: ‘We condemn it, we do not tolerate it and we do not tolerate it happening again’. 

The Italian Defence Ministry summoned the Israeli ambassador in protest, and Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said he was deeply concerned about the Irish defence forces deployed on behalf of the UN in the region. 

UN Secretary General António Guterres, vetoed by the Israeli government and branded a ‘persona non grata’, again called for a cessation of hostilities and respect for international agreements: ‘This is a violation of humanitarian law, as it attacks peacekeepers’. 

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) demanded that peacekeepers move away from the ‘blue line’, a dividing line between Lebanon and Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, where peacekeepers are tasked by a UN resolution to reduce tensions. 

Following the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, UN Resolution 1701 was designed to allow peacekeepers to help the Lebanese army keep southern Lebanon free of weapons, 

What Israel is doing with the blue helmets is a complete disregard for the international community, stresses Javier Jiménez Olmos, a member of the Observatory for Peace in Zaragoza, indignantly. 

For the Spanish ex-military officer, Israel is ignoring and violating international agreements and ignoring the constant requests for a ceasefire with both the Palestinians and the Lebanese, because it is backed by the United States. ‘The Netanyahu government feels it can do whatever it wants and is proving it by attacking the blue helmets themselves,’ he said. 

‘I am very pessimistic because the policy that Netanyahu is pursuing is totally destructive; it aims not only to wipe out Hamas and Hezbollah, but to expand its territory by claiming it is in self-defence,’ he reiterated. 

Netanyahu named UN chief António Guterres himself as ‘persona non grata’, what do you think about this? 

And he has many clashes with the Spanish government and also attacks Joseph Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Article 6 of the UN Charter states that any member that has repeatedly violated the principles of the Charter can be expelled from the UN by the General Assembly on the recommendation of the Security Council. Israel has a string of resolutions that it has not complied with, it has continually violated them, demonstrating that it is above international law. It is protected by the United States. 

The United States is in the trap of the elections, does this work against Kamala? 

I don't know, I see both Republicans and Democrats with little incentive for real change in their Middle East policy. President Joe Biden himself is a Democrat who continues to sell weapons to Israel... just a few days ago the Pentagon announced that it will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery along with troops to Israel. 

Following Iran's threats, US Major General Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, confirmed that Israeli air defences will be reinforced on the orders of President Biden, following Iran's missile attacks in April and this month. 

‘This action underscores America's unwavering commitment to the defence of Israel and the defence of Americans in Israel against any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran,’ according to Ryder. 

How far does Israel intend to go? 

We have to look at a number of factors. There is the conjunction of fanaticism on all sides: firstly, we have Jewish fanaticism represented by the more right-wing Likud and Netanyahu-supporting parties; but let's not forget that in Iran there is also theocratic fundamentalism and the reasoning is not the same as that of people who are based on compassion and dialogue.  We are faced with these factors that lead us to think that they do not contribute to peace; the world powers should have the obligation to bring peace and to mediate in the conflict but they do not do so, least of all with one of the parties totally aligned with Israel... read the United States. 

We forget the destabilising factor of the Islamic State in the region... 

Jihadist-style terrorism has not been extinguished and it is very worrying because with all the events that are happening it is going to spread further. What can come out of those children in Gaza or Lebanon who have lost everything and are just living in the middle of a big disaster? This is the breeding ground for terrorism, don't forget that Syria and Iraq have very large jihadist groups. 

Fear of an internecine war between Israel and Iran 

Here in Spain, several experts on military conflicts question Israel's economic capacity to resist a missile war with Iran: ‘It is cheaper for Iran to attack than for Israel to shoot them down and then defend and counterattack’. 

A few days ago, the Jerusalem Post addressed this in an interesting article, ‘The Missile Economy’, pointing out the economic hole that sustaining longer bombing raids in Gaza, Lebanon and, above all, if missile exchanges with Iran become continuous, will put in Israel's accounts: ‘The unwritten rule is that the interceptor missile always costs more than the intercepted missile. Defence is more expensive than attack’. 

The Jerusalem Post notes that this situation was experienced with the Patriot system against Scud missiles in the 1991 Gulf War and has been the case with Iron Dome interceptors against Hamas and Hezbollah rockets since 2011. 

The Israeli army is working against the clock to have a new protection mechanism in place by 2025 that is cheaper than Iron Dome to intercept missiles: the ‘Iron Beam’, a laser interception system. 

‘According to Israeli army reports, Iran launched 181 ballistic missiles at Israel in early October and its air defence system intercepted most of them; and the US, through its missile destroyers, intercepted 12 missiles. Estimates suggest that it costs the Iranians at least 1 million dollars to manufacture each missile and Israel roughly 2 to 3 million dollars to shoot each one down, depending on whether it uses Arrow-2 or Arrow-3 missiles,’ according to the newspaper. 

The White House and Congress approved a 14 billion dollar aid budget for Israel, and if the intensity of the war with Iran intensifies, a new aid package and more weapons and support from the US military will be necessary. 

In Jiménez Olmos' opinion, it is not in Iran's interest to go to war with Israel, which has a far superior army and better military technology, as well as the support of the United States and Germany. ‘Iran is very much alone and it knows it,’ he says. 

Let's talk about the countries that are observing events, such as China, Russia and North Korea, could they intervene on Iran's behalf? 

Iran is strategically alone: it is isolated. Russia could give it some weaponry, but Russia is showing us that it does not have the capacity to sustain the war with Ukraine and has many difficulties; and China has a low profile and among other things Iran sells it a lot of oil... but its president Xi Jinping is more interested in soft power and in taking care of its economy. 

China's interests are Taiwan and the South China Sea. The regime of the ayatollahs in Iran delays a lot the response against Israel, let's say they are symbolic attacks... the regime knows that Israel can do a lot of damage; its aviation is more powerful and it has better missiles and missile interception systems. At the moment, I don't see Russia intervening, will nuclear weapons be used? I don't even want to think about it.