A peace deal that nobody believes Putin's words

Day 34 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and civilian deaths are in the thousands. In Istanbul, Prime Minister Recep Tayipp Erdogan hosts a meeting between a Russian and a Ukrainian delegation in search of a peace deal; this is the second time they have met on Turkish soil, after other failed attempts on Ukraine's border with Belarus. There is a faint window of hope.

Volodymir Zelensky is willing to compromise on several of the Kremlin's red points, although the Ukrainian president refuses to lose territorial unity. Negotiations could be long and get bogged down in the mud again.

The cessation of shelling and the provision of humanitarian corridors has been on the table since minute one and since the first time the two delegations met: on 28 February, just four days after the Russian army crossed the borders into the Donbas region and began its military escalation of death and destruction across almost the entire territory.

Zelenski has been calling for a halt to the shelling for hours and days, crying out to the world for help to stop the artillery fire that is leaving ruined cities like Mariupol, which has become a symbol of pain and devastation.

At last week's talks, the Kremlin announced that it will scale back its military operations in Ukraine. The West does not believe it. Tom Bateman, speaking from Istanbul for the BBC, reports that "many are sceptical" of Russia's announcement of reduced military operations.

"Whether it is a promise to withdraw or simply an acceptance, it has already failed in those areas and will instead direct its full force eastwards. Western countries will therefore judge Russia by its actions, not its words," he says.

In these latest negotiations, the Ukrainian delegation proposed to its Russian counterparts the possibility of adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees with a number of guarantor countries that would act to protect Ukraine through an international mechanism that includes Turkey.

It also accepts that it will not be part of NATO, one of the points raised by dictator Vladimir Putin in letters he sent in late December to both NATO and the United States and which, among other things, has served as a pretext to justify his military incursion. Ukraine would have to amend its constitution to reflect both its neutrality and its renunciation of NATO membership.

Neither the United States, nor the United Kingdom, nor Ukraine's own military intelligence are buying into the conflict de-escalation argument, because the Kremlin continues to play a game of misdirection. It talks of concentrating its special operations in the Donbas region but continues to shell both Kiev and other cities while it finishes completely destroying Mariupol; it has practically wiped out everything from hospitals, schools, theatres; most recently, the city's Red Cross.

A few days ago, the last survivors of the heavy shelling emerged from the cellars of houses, mainly a contingent of elderly, disabled and infirm disabled people. They have been mobilised in transports that are evacuating the last remaining inhabitants, estimated, according to Kiev, to be around 170,000 people from a city that had a census of 446,103 inhabitants.

Most have fled to the interior of the country: to Zaporiyia and other cities and to neighbouring countries. Although Vadim Boychenko, the mayor of Mariupol, has been denouncing that Russian troops forcibly evicted - to Russia - between 20,000 and 30,000 people, taking away their mobile phones and documents.

The Kremlin has repeatedly called for the surrender of Mariupol, but Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is prolonging the agony.

The withdrawal of Russian forces in recent days, with some moving away from Kiev, other battalions moving towards Belarus and some more concentrating in eastern Ukraine is interpreted not as a sign of an early peace but as a logistical move to allow Russian troops to resupply.

Putin is letting Chechen forces (newly added to the invasion) commanded by Ramzan Kadyrov known as "the warlord" take control of Mariupol at any cost. A few days ago they seized the City Hall, Putin in correspondence to Kadyrov granted him the rank of lieutenant general.

Basically, the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations have addressed the following points: 1) Ukraine's neutrality, free of military bases and military contingents of other nations on its territory; 2) refusal to enter into any political-military alliance; 3) carrying out military exercises on its territory only with the approval of the guarantor countries; 4) the Kiev government could join the European Union without the guarantor countries hindering its intention; 5) the Zelenski Presidency proposes that the guarantor countries be: the United Kingdom, China, the United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Israel, Italy and Poland; 6) President Zelenski reiterates that he is willing to meet with Putin in person; 7) the Russian Foreign Ministry points out that he is willing to meet with Putin: United Kingdom, China, United States, Turkey, France, Canada, Israel, Italy and Poland; 6) President Zelenski reiterates that he is ready for a face-to-face meeting with Putin; the Russian Foreign Ministry points out that a framework agreement must first be reached.

From Berlin, government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit took up the baton and stated that Germany would be ready to take the step of being Ukraine's security guarantor.

When can a significant step towards peace be taken? The Kremlin continues to dampen expectations in a Ukraine desperate to return to normality as soon as possible, to rebuild and heal the wounds. In Mariupol alone there are more than 5,000 dead, but added to those in the rest of the country the figure could double. Moreover, the economy is in shambles: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a 13.5% drop in GDP and has already granted Zelenski a loan of 1.4 billion dollars.

In general, the West's position is one of incredulity towards Putin's words, who has been talking for days about allowing safe humanitarian corridors and lowering the intensity of the siege.

The White House also insists that a meeting between President Biden and Putin would only be possible "if there is a tangible reduction in the intensity of the military offensive".

Biden has raised the tone of his adjectives against the autocrat whom he has branded a war criminal, and on his visit to Poland to see Ukrainian refugees he called him a "butcher".

"I don't interpret anything until I see if they follow through on their actions - with respect to the Kremlin's announcement to reduce its military operations in the Ukrainian capital and Chernihiv - first we'll see if they follow through on what they're suggesting," he said.

Zelenski reiterated that there must be a show of will on Russia's part, deeds rather than words, as artillery continues to destroy cities and kill civilians.

"There must be real security for us, for our state, for our sovereignty. For our people... Russian troops must leave the occupied territories. Sovereignty and territorial integrity are fundamental for us," the Ukrainian leader reiterated.

To mediate in the conflict, UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Martin Griffiths as a peace mediator to stop the shelling.

"Today I announce that in the exercise of my good offices I have asked our global humanitarian coordinator to explore immediately with the parties concerned a possible agreement on a humanitarian ceasefire in Ukraine," said Guterres, who has so far been ignored by Russia.

Griffiths is tasked with going in person to both Kiev and Moscow to negotiate a humanitarian ceasefire. According to the UN and UNHCR there are already more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe and ten million internally displaced.

It remains to be seen whether this peace mediator will be able to join the talks in Turkey. On the Russian side, the participation of oligarch Roman Abramovich (owner of Chelsea), one of Putin's mentors, stands out; the businessman was close to Putin years ago when he came to power.

Abramovich is said to serve as the Russian dictator's 'trusted listener' and 'courier'; his involvement is well regarded and he has been openly flattered by Mikhail Podoliak, Ukraine's chief negotiator in the peace talks.

A few days ago The Washington Post reported that Abramovich and other participants in the Ukrainian delegation were allegedly poisoned with chocolates on 3 March in Kiev after meeting with a Russian businessman.

However, no one has confirmed the allegation: neither the White House, nor Turkey, nor British or French intelligence, and the Kremlin's own spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, doubts its veracity.

From Kiev, voices are growing in warning of Putin's true intentions: to split Ukraine in two. Just as happened with Korea (1953), which gave rise to North and South Korea after the war clashes and the intervention of the two hegemonic powers of the time, with the US and Russia involved in the dispute. NATO was newly created on 4 April 1949.

Kiev also agrees with reports shared by US and UK military intelligence that Russian troops intend to form an encirclement of Ukrainian soldiers in the separatist areas.

"There is reason to believe that Putin is contemplating a Korean-style scenario of a dividing line between the occupied and unoccupied regions," Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, wrote on his Facebook account.

In the negotiations, the biggest thorny issue is related to Ukraine's territorial integrity. Zelensky is not giving any concessions and proposes a 15-year deadline for Crimea to negotiate its status.

However, Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinski stressed that annexations of both the Crimean peninsula and the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics with independence recognised by Putin himself are not on the agenda - "there will be no change in the Kremlin's position" on these areas. In fact, pro-Russian separatists in Lugansk want to hold a referendum now.

The Kremlin talks of withdrawal from certain areas but satellite images show a regrouping of troops; in the US and Europe, fears persist of a stronger and more violent offensive.

Wesley Clark, a former NATO commander, told CNN that a frustrated Putin "could launch a limited nuclear strike in Poland" and Ukraine itself using a low-yield nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, NATO's top commander and head of the US European Command, Tod Wolters, told the US Senate that Russia has deployed 70-75 per cent of its military capability in the invasion and is suffering from a visible loss of momentum.

"I can say that the momentum to the north of the Russians and to the south in the direction of Kiev remains at a standstill. They have not made, according to our best estimates, any appreciable progress geographically," he said.

Questioned about Putin's (69 years old and more than two decades in power in Russia) motivations for invading Ukraine in 2022, without the presence of Angela Merkel at the helm of Germany or Donald Trump in the White House, Walters believes it has to do with his age and his effectiveness.

"I think he feels he has the popular support of the citizens of Russia and I feel he was trying to take advantage of the fissures that might have appeared in NATO as a result of the post-Afghanistan environment," he revealed before the US Senate Armed Services Committee.

A nuclear strike? In 2020, at the height of the pandemic, the Russian dictator signed a new decree on Basic Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence that allows for the "tactical" use of atomic force.

Putin and his advisers, in their futures about the course of the invasion, its timing and the number of casualties to their troops as collateral damage, will have a time frame on their agenda. If after this time they do not take control of Ukraine, nor move forward with a negotiating agenda, the more likely it is that Ukraine will end violently in order to surrender the country and impose their conditions once and for all. In Europe, military experts believe that the Kremlin would have the nuclear option up its sleeve.

"For decades there has not been the threat of a nuclear attack like the one we have now, because Russian propagandists openly discuss the possibility of using nuclear weapons against those who do not want to submit to Russian command," Zelenski said in a telematic speech to the Australian parliament.