A self-interested conflict

While Russia is demanding explanations from the United States before the Security Council as to where they got the information about the 100,000 Russian soldiers deployed on the border with Ukraine, the involvement of Biden and also of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in this initial phase of the conflict is in itself of great interest not only in terms of elections, but also as a distraction for public opinion.

Beset by two investigations into the so-called 'partygate' affair that has kept the British prime minister's popularity at an all-time low, and at odds with several members of his own party who are calling for his resignation, a few days ago Johnson spoke by telephone with President Putin and they exchanged impressions and reproaches: the British politician said that NATO will not close its doors to Ukraine, and the Russian president reproached him for the fact that the Europeans are not taking Russia's security concerns into account.

It suits Johnson well to divert the focus of public attention in the British media to concentrate on the Ukraine-Russia conflict; in fact, he has made a whirlwind trip to Kiev to meet his counterpart Volodimir Zelensky.

Biden is on the same path, and his approval rating in the polls is at an all-time low: according to a Quinnipiac University poll, only 33% of the population approves of him in his first year in office; and next November there will be legislative elections, with the first polls predicting a landslide for the Democrats.

So the tension with Russia allows Biden to heat up the domestic atmosphere a little by diverting attention from the impact of inflation or the situation in the management of the pandemic. The war economy always lubricates a machine that many other US politicians have latched onto to win elections.

But how do Europeans look at Biden in the face of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine? I spoke to two leading experts on the subject: according to Juan Solaeche-Jaureguizar and Bielsa, they do so with concern.

"At the moment he is going through his worst political moment in the United States and Europe knows it, so it will not accept direct impositions from him. Let us remember the upcoming mid-term elections in which a defeat and loss of the Democratic majority in the Houses is expected. Europe is the Europe of the merchants", he confesses.

According to the rector of the Society for International Studies, the UN has had to be redefined for many years: "Alvin Toffler pointed this out in his work 'The Third Wave'. Neither in terms of GDP, nor in terms of capacity, nor in terms of representativeness are the real powers represented in the UN".

"North Korea was recently elected chairman of the Disarmament Commission... this gives an idea of the international situation of the countries in the UN. North Korea will chair the UN Conference on Disarmament, while it continues to test nuclear missiles," he says with surprise.

What could this conflict lead to - another war? Or a new great Cold War with two confrontational blocs: the West versus Russia, China, Iran and those who join in?

-This tension will serve as a way for Russia to concretise its map of influences supported by China; reorienting the talks and agreements of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. On 25 December 1991, the Soviet Union was officially dissolved and the circumstances are now similar for the United States, with a highly contested internal situation, as never seen before in the 20th century, and a loss of prestige for the US military on the different fronts. It reminds me of the former USSR... but with a little more money and debt.

In the same vein, Javier Jiménez Olmos, PhD in Peace, comments that Biden is acting as expected "which does not mean that it is the most prudent thing to do" and that he is doing so because he feels that the United States has control of NATO.

In the opinion of the writer and member of the Zaragoza Peace Research Seminar Foundation, the role of the UN is questionable, starting with those who form part of the Security Council.

"The Security Council is made up of the United States and Russia, among others who have the right of veto, so of course Russia is not interested in the Council talking about this issue; and the United States, with the internal problems it has had with Trump and then with the election of Biden, has not positioned itself... in any case, I have no confidence that the Security Council is going to resolve anything," he confesses.

In these conflicts, according to Jiménez Olmos, one has to look at the logic from both sides if one wants to reach an agreement and one could reach one, as he himself hopes.

This was seen at the time of the 1962 missile crisis...

-Of course, Russia doesn't want NATO in front of its house, but solutions usually come. In the Cuban missile crisis, a victorious Kennedy emerged in the West after the missiles were withdrawn, but what was not reported in the press was that, in return, the Americans withdrew their short-range missiles from Turkey.  So in the current conflict, concessions are perfectly possible.

For example, Ukraine not joining NATO?

-As an analyst, I think that Ukraine's entry into NATO does not add anything to European security. On the contrary, what it does is further unnerve the other side; Ukraine's non-entry could be achieved in exchange for Russia's recognition of Ukraine's full sovereignty. The Donbas area can be demilitarised with an autonomous regime and more can be added in the agreements such as economic issues, missiles, troops, gas and so on.

There is no shortage of international experts who believe that the current Russian threat will not lead to war, and Jiménez Olmos points in the same direction: "Neither side is rationally interested and Putin may be an autocrat who does not respect human rights, but he comes from the KGB intelligence services; he is very rational and knows that a war does not suit him, among other things, how he is going to invade a country like Ukraine that has more than 40 million inhabitants and an area larger than Spain... it is impossible, he does not have the means to do so".

The dreaded historic sanctions that Biden threatens could also affect the global village. Russia, in punishment, could shut off gas, which Jiménez Olmos foresees as very damaging because it would bring a series of dire consequences for economies.

The same warning issued by Solaeche-Jaureguizar and Bielsa, a pro-European expert: "Sanctions? Germany and the countries that have access to Russian gas will have to give their opinion... the only thing that would be particularly damaging for Russia would be the exit from the SWIFT system. That would lead to a war, as it would leave Russia out of the world market and the dollar, which would suffocate it financially".

While the negotiations seem to be entering muddy ground, the world is still on tenterhooks waiting to find out whether the tensions of the damned pandemic will now be compounded by an extremely dangerous and damaging war. There are many interests at stake here.