A shattered Syria contested by strategic forces
Saleh N. has been living as a refugee in Seville for ten years, fleeing an internecine civil war in which Bashar al-Assad, supported by the Kremlin, hunted down all opponents of the regime. ‘Now I just want to get back to my country as soon as possible,’ he says.
No one supported the satrap any more, neither Iran nor Putin, with their economic and military support provided. This time, a new uprising by opposition rebel groups found an echo for their offensive that began on 27 November in Idlib, northwest Syria. The leader of the insurgency, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, vowed to reach Damascus and kill the al-Assad family.
From Idlib they moved south, to capture Deraa, the very city where the uprising against the ruling dictatorship began in 2011; one that passed from father to son: after the death of the dictator, Hafez al-Assad in June 2000, Bashar assumed the presidency in July of that year.
As the rebels advanced, they gained support from both the north and the south until they reached Damascus in the early hours of Sunday morning, 8 December. It took them twelve days to reach the capital and they met almost no resistance.
Al-Assad and his family fled in their private plane to Moscow at the invitation of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who offered them asylum. Putin for more than a decade provided economic, logistical and military aid to prevent the fall of the regime fearful of losing a very important strategic enclave.
Why does Syria have an envied geopolitical and geo-economic position?
Analyst Siyed Raiyan Amir explains in Euroasia Review that the country is located at the intersection of Asia, Europe and Africa, making it a vital hub for trade, military strategy and cultural exchange.
‘Syria's western border touches the Mediterranean Sea, providing access to vital sea routes. The port city of Latakia, one of the country's main coastal assets, offers potential control over eastern Mediterranean sea routes and this access is particularly critical for trade in energy products; the Mediterranean serves as a conduit for oil and gas exports from the Middle East to Europe and beyond,’ according to Raiyan Amir.
Indeed, Russia has two military bases in Syria: at the Tartous naval base on the Mediterranean coast and at the Khmeimim air base near the port city of Latakia.
For the Kremlin, these are two very important military bases, especially the one in Tartous, as it provides Russia with its only direct access to the Mediterranean and a base for naval exercises, stationing warships and even housing nuclear submarines.
According to the Russian news agency TASS, Syrian rebel fighters have already taken full control of Latakia province, the site of both Russian military bases.
In this regard, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that they are taking measures to ensure the security of their military bases.
However, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) released several satellite images showing Russia withdrawing its troops and military equipment from Latakia.
Also, Reuters reports that satellite images of the Russian base in Tartous suggest that at least three warships have left the port and anchored in the sea some thirteen kilometres off the coast.
The same is true of the frigate Admiral Grigorovich, the submarine Novorossiysk and the tanker Kaliningradneft Vyazma, which are reportedly several kilometres from the port.
Syria, although it does not have large oil fields, is a critical transit point on the so-called potential routes for transporting oil and gas from the resource-rich regions of the Persian Gulf and Caspian to Europe. These transit routes have long been the subject of geopolitical competition, involving regional and international actors.
Of course, the strategic geographic location of this country of 23 million people cannot be ignored: it shares borders with Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south and Israel and Lebanon to the southwest.
‘This positioning places Syria as a gateway between the Arab world and Eurasia. Historically, its location has allowed it to influence regional politics and act as a buffer zone in conflicts involving these neighbours', according to Rayin Amir.
Syria is part of the Levant, a historically contested region rich in resources, culture and strategic value. The Levant connects the Mediterranean with the Arabian hinterland, providing routes for trade and military campaigns. Control of this region has been a recurring goal for empires throughout history, from the Assyrians to the Ottomans.
A fragmented Syria
Here in Spain, Saleh, like nearly seven million Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, Germany, Jordan and Iraq, woke up on Sunday 8 December to the overthrow of the al-Assad dynasty government that for the past fifty-four years has ruled the Sunni-majority nation with a very heavy hand (and with the help of Alawis and Shiites).
Syrians abroad, who for years have fled the repression and civil war and its consequences, will begin to return home with the desire to contribute to reconstruction and the hope of living in peace.
But it will not be easy. The country is highly fragmented with forces controlling various geographical areas such as the Kurds, the Turks, various rebel groups and the Islamic State.
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, highlighted its geostrategic value. The conflict attracted regional powers such as Turkey, Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as global actors such as the US and Russia. Each sought to influence the outcome of the war to align it with their strategic interests.
Russia established a military foothold in Syria, with its naval base in Tartous and air base in Khmeimim, a move that allowed it for more than a decade to project its power in the eastern Mediterranean.
In turn, Iran used Syria as its land corridor to supply weaponry and military equipment to the Hezbollah group in Lebanon and Turkey; in its war against the Kurds, it tried to prevent them from establishing autonomous regions on the Syrian border with Turkey.
Then there is the more worrying side: Syria has been a hotbed of extremist activity, with groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda feeding off the instability to sow chaos and terror among the population.
From Syria, many of the terrorist attacks in recent years in Europe and the Middle East have been prepared by ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria. Stabilising Syria should be a priority, as should eradicating terrorism.
Nor can its deteriorating economic situation be ignored. The World Bank in its ‘Syria Economic Monitor Spring 2024: Conflict, Crisis and the Collapse of Household Welfare’ examines the key features of Syria's macroeconomic policy and places them in the context of the ongoing conflict in the country and the wider region.
Real GDP is projected to contract by 1.5% in 2024. As of 2022, poverty affects 69% of the population and extreme poverty affects 27%, although some areas are much more affected.
‘More than a decade of conflict, compounded by external shocks, has further worsened Syria's dire economic situation in 2023 and led to a dramatic deterioration in the well-being of Syrian households,’ according to the international agency.
Despite a rebound in agricultural production due to improved weather conditions in 2023, the conflict has severely affected the agricultural sector, with massive displacement of farmers and extensive damage to infrastructure and irrigation systems, leading to a decline in crop yields.
‘Conflict-related disruptions have also severely affected foreign trade. The collapse of domestic industrial and agricultural production increased Syria's dependence on imports,’ says the World Bank.
Moreover, problems run deep in other areas: last year, the Syrian pound depreciated 141% against the dollar while inflation rose 93%.
According to the report, poverty in Syria has a strong spatial connotation. More than 50% of people living in extreme poverty live in just three governorates (Aleppo, Hama and Deir-ez-Zor), with populations in the north-east of the country showing the highest incidence of poverty. Female-headed households and IDPs are most at risk of falling into poverty.
The tyrant is gone, but long months lie ahead for beautiful Syria, full of challenges, not only political but also economic. People will want to see quick results in their pockets. There is also the resistance to change: the ideological-theocratic struggle between Alawi and Shia versus Sunni influence could bring new bloodshed in a nation fragmented by the various groups of regional but also global power and influence.