The EU is in a race against climate change
The intense scorching heat of the summer, which is getting longer, drier and more incendiary, has set off alarm bells: 2023 was the hottest year on record in the last 174 years.
National Geographic's Sergio Parra points out that what was remarkable about global temperatures in 2023 was not just that they broke previous records, but that they far surpassed them. "From June to November, each month set a new all-time high. Even in December, temperatures remained mostly above normal."
And, 2024 could be even hotter, according to Parra: "The Earth could experience an increase in global average temperature that momentarily exceeds the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. According to the UK Met Office, the average global temperature could range between 1.34 and 1.58 degrees Celsius this year, in line with a global warming trend of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.
In obvious circumstances, these facts only expose the failure of the 2015 Paris Agreement that aims to do everything possible to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to mitigate the rise in temperature.
"Models indicate that, if current trends continue, the world could face a temperature increase of between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius this century. The continued adjustment of greenhouse gas emissions and the presence of El Niño, which is intensifying due to the climate crisis, are key factors in this projection," according to Parra, who specialises in science and nature.
At the same time, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) warns of the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of a system that relies heavily on 20th century fuels.
This intergovernmental body, based in Abu Dhabi, is the first international organisation focused on renewable energies and its intention is to promote them and facilitate technology transfer in order to create clean cities and favour the so-called "smart cities". To date, 168 countries plus the European Union are members.
The end of fossil fuels?
There is a real effort that may not be noticed by ordinary citizens, but there is a strong global movement sponsored not only by various governments and organisations, but also by the private sector, which seeks to accelerate the energy transition and contribute to the sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy: from bioenergy to geothermal energy, as well as hydroelectric, ocean, solar and wind energy.
Precisely, it was Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 that was a turning point in accelerating the mechanisms of decarbonisation and the use of fossil fuels.
Here in Europe, this historic event is seen as the beginning of the end of fossil fuels after the war exposed Europeans' vulnerability to Russian oil and gas energy consumption. It may not happen immediately, but the fossil energy map will look very different by the end of this century.
It is not only the environmental impact and the mitigation of the harmful effects of climate change, the advisory panel of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) recalls that many aspects of everyday life suffer from the repercussions of the geopolitical and geo-economic sensitivity that characterises the global energy industry.
"In the absence of alternatives, high fossil fuel prices inflict energy poverty and loss of industrial competitiveness, while citizens around the world worry about their energy bills and climate impacts," according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
The intention is clear: to accelerate efficient and decentralised renewable technologies and create a system less prone to marketshocks and improve resilience and energy security through diversity of supply options.
Contributing to change to favour energy transitions will also have a positive effect on climate change, points out Arantza Hernanz Martín, Director of Education and Knowledge at Fundación Repsol.
Hernanz Martín took part in the forum "Challenges and opportunities of the energy transition for smart cities" and was accompanied by other executives from energy-related companies.
At the forum, which I attended, the expert recalled the current serious problem: "The carbon dioxide that is emitted accumulates and the planet is not capable of eliminating it, so there is a huge negative effect. At the end of last year, the United Nations warned of global warming and its consequences. We see it in Spain, in 2023, the average temperature was 1.48 degrees Celsius higher than the average of the pre-industrial era and there are many years left to reach 2100".
Hernanz Martín pointed out that emissions are not only not being reduced, but continue to rise: "We have to touch all the levers to advance in decarbonisation and the circular economy is going to be one of them. There is no industry that will not decarbonise without the circular economy.
The directive emphasised two factors that also act on climate change: population growth and economic growth. "We have unstoppable population growth: in the middle of the last century, in 1950, there were 2.5 billion people living on earth; in 2023, there will be 8.043 billion people. Population consumes energy in the face of population growth, we can do nothing about it," he said.
However, Hernanz Martín acknowledged that there are potential factors that can be influenced: "Energy efficiency reduces emissions; energy reduction can be achieved by changing the way we produce and sustainability can be enhanced to the extent that we have more decarbonised energies".
The intention is that these are three cardinal axes that will allow, in the medium-term future, to have secure, competitive, cheap, clean and affordable energy for all.
Energy transition underway
The International Renewable Energy Agency describes the energy transition as a path to transforming the global energy sector from a fossil fuel-based model to a zero-emission economy.
In order to accelerate the transition and reach a level of decarbonisation sufficient to limit global warming, sustainable energy transition initiatives must be adopted on a planetary scale. It estimates that, if properly implemented, these efforts could potentially achieve 90% of the required carbon reductions.
"The shift from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy sources across the global energy sector, together with the spread of electrification and improved energy storage solutions, will play a key role in the energy transition. Currently, globally, the power sector remains predominantly reliant on non-renewable energy sources, such as natural gas, coal and oil," the Agency notes.
Clean energy sources include renewable sources that come from a clean and inexhaustible supply and carbon neutral sources that may or may not be renewable, but produce zero carbon emissions.
However, in Europe, the transition to carbon-neutral energy sources is accelerating. In 2020, 66% of electricity used across the continent came from clean, renewable sources, such as wind, solar, hydro and nuclear. By 2030, these sources could cover up to 80% of the mix, and pumped hydro accounts for 94% of Europe's electricity storage capacity.
Sun, water and wind can be the new allies for this energy transition. While the need or not to increase nuclear power plants is being discussed, renewable energy projects have the potential to be new allies in the energy transition.
But renewable energy projects have benefits that go beyond decarbonisation. Eurelectric's Power Plant report shows how integrated renewable energy projects, such as agricultural applications through photovoltaic agriculture, can protect biodiversity and even restore degraded ecosystems.
In Europe, 70% of the EU's "Next Generation" funds, designed to provide support and financing to its 27 member countries, are earmarked for energy transition and digitisation.
The EU is committed to the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050, which means achieving an economy with net zero greenhouse gas emissions. This objective is central to the European Green Pact and is underpinned by the European Climate Law.
To achieve this ambitious goal, the EU is implementing a number of initiatives, including the Zero Net Emissions Industry Act.
What are its objectives? To expand clean technology manufacturing in the EU by increasing production capacity for technologies that support the clean energy transition and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The aim is for the overall strategic manufacturing capacity of net zero emission technologies in the EU to approach or reach at least 40% of annual deployment needs by 2030.
In 2024, how much clean energy does the EU produce? According to the European Commission, with data from last year, the EU was positioned as a world leader in renewable and low-carbon electricity production with 32% from renewables and nuclear. The 27 EU member states reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by 30% compared to 1990.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that largely due to its dependence on imported fuels, the EU stands out as one of the regions with the highest clean energy investment ratios: it spends more than $10 on clean energy for every $1 invested in fossil fuels.
In 2023, investment in renewable generation amounted to almost $110 billion, up 6% from the previous year. Denmark and Germany remain at the forefront of Europe's wind energy sector, despite continuing profitability challenges.
Spain, meanwhile, has led the way in increasing solar adoption and has seen wholesale electricity prices fall to historic lows during periods of high solar production, bringing some benefits to consumers.
The EU has some way to go to overcome its dependence on fossil fuels, mostly imported from other countries, but there is a willingness among governments to meet the deadlines for energy conversion to achieve not only zero emissions, but also sustainable self-sufficiency.