Ukraine, after three years of invasion, is living through its most decisive hours
The bilateral negotiations between the United States and Russia to end a war that has just turned three years old are not only seen as isolationist and unrealistic, but also as outrageous and dangerous: Trump intends to divide up Ukraine, as spoils of war, with the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin.
The only point on which there is consensus between Europe and Washington is that they all want a ceasefire; then there is the thornier issue: how to achieve a peace agreement that prevents new military moves by Putin to take over the rest of Ukraine or to prevent him from invading other countries?
The ceasefire negotiations brokered by the White House have already been met with Putin's first imposition: that they be held in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.
Since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian dictator, Putin's travels have been very limited and he has only travelled to Iran, China, various former Soviet republics and, at the end of 2023, he visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In particular, he has always prided himself on getting on well with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
On 18 February, a first contact team from both delegations, the US and the Russian, met in Riyadh, with Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, and Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, at the head of both teams.
A preparatory event for Trump's next meeting with Putin, in which each will finish fine-tuning the hot spots, which, on both sides, were put on the table in Riyadh regarding the ceasefire in Ukraine.
Putin is not asking for little: 1) the lifting of all sanctions against Russia; 2) the re-establishment of Russia in the international payment system; 3) the return of Russia as a major player in the G7 under the G7 plus Russia format that was already in operation before Russia took over Crimea in 2014 (and which, of course, belongs to Ukraine); 4) Zelensky's departure from the government and to this end it is demanding that elections be held in less than six months; 5) Russia will not give up or exchange even an inch of the 30% of Ukrainian territory that Putin already considers to be Russian territory enshrined in the Russian Constitution; 6) it does not want to negotiate with Zelensky or with the representatives of the European Union at the same table as him and Trump; nor does he accept European or NATO troops, either as a deterrent or as a guarantee of peace, on Ukrainian territory; and, 7) as if that were not enough, he is demanding the capitulation of Kiev which, in addition to declaring itself defeated, will have to pay Russia an as yet unestimated sum for the war expenses incurred as a result of the invasion.
These are some of Putin's demands, among which he certainly reiterates that what remains of Ukraine will be neutral, without an army and without joining the ranks of the EU, much less NATO. The new Ukrainian border and its border controls have yet to be defined and, taking into account that Kiev would lose its exit to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, practically its market for exports and imports by sea will be in the hands of the Russian Administration, which precisely controls Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
As if that were not enough, there are also Trump's ambitions regarding the already broken Ukrainian economy, which has spent three years repelling the invader and watching as bombs kill civilians and destroy its civilian, energy and military infrastructure.
The bill to be paid that the White House has foisted on Zelenski is 500 billion dollars, which the US president wants to collect by exploiting and appropriating the rare earths and other minerals that the Ukrainian part would not remain in Russian hands.
Trump wants to exploit Ukraine
A few days ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kiev and presented a draft agreement requesting the transfer of 50% ownership of rare earth minerals.
‘I did not allow the ministers to sign a relevant agreement because, in my opinion, the United States is not ready to protect us or our interests. I have never said that I am closed to a strategic agreement on the matter, but it must be above all in exchange for security guarantees for Ukraine,’ Zelenski remarked.
Regarding the $500 billion that Trump is claiming as compensation for the economic and military aid granted by the United States to Ukraine, Zelenski described this information as erroneous.
‘We have substantially different figures. Everything is very clear. The war has cost us 320 billion dollars: Ukrainian taxpayers have paid 120 billion dollars; and the United States and its European allies have contributed 200 billion dollars in arms packages. The United States has provided us with 67 billion dollars in weapons and 31.5 billion dollars in direct financial aid to the budget,’ Zelenski pointed out.
Entangled, Trump and Zelensky in this economic point, the tycoon's anger has led to him being labelled a ‘Ukrainian dictator’, further heating up the atmosphere between the two which was already heated because Trump ignored Zelensky and the EU leaders for his ceasefire table with Putin in Riyadh.
These have been days of great upheaval in Europe and too much concern because Europeans fearfully watch the long shadow of Putin grow over them; the dictator has only had to be patient and wait for the political winds in the United States to be favourable to him.
It is no longer even his own people in the Kremlin who are attacking Zelensky and the European leaders, that is now being done by the US president alone in a perverse game in which Ukraine is the morsel to be shared between two tyrannosaurs.
In Spain, an article by Alberto Tejedor for La Razón refers to a leak of the US draft to the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph: ‘The conditions imposed have set off alarm bells in Kiev, there is consternation and panic. This is due to a series of one-sided conditions that the US wants to impose on the invaded country, ranging from the exploitation of its ports and infrastructure to access to its oil, gas and other natural resources’.
In other words, Trump wants to take more than just Ukraine's rare earths; and, in fact, he is proposing to set up a joint investment fund to ensure that parties hostile to the conflict do not benefit from Ukraine's reconstruction. In the leak, The Daily Telegraph emphasises that the United States would receive 50% of Ukraine's recurring income from resource extraction as well as 50% of the financial value of all new licences granted to third parties; and it grants the United States the right of retention over such income, i.e. Washington would have priority in collection even before Ukraine can use those funds for its own development.
And finally, all future resource exploitation licences would be subject to US pre-emption, which would guarantee priority access over any buyer.
The British newspaper pointed out that Washington intends to impose conditions on Ukraine similar to those applied to the defeated states in the war; they are even more severe than the financial sanctions imposed on Germany and Japan after their defeat in 1945. ‘If this agreement is accepted, Trump's demands would represent a greater proportion of Ukraine's GDP than the reparations imposed on Germany in the 1919 Treaty of Versailles’.
What does Trump really want with the famous ceasefire in Ukraine that he calls peace? Why is he so interested in ending the war? He is motivated only by ambition and supremacist interests. He doesn't want to send troops to Ukraine, but he does want to send his multinationals there after negotiating the partition of Ukraine with Putin: 30% for Russia plus Crimea and the rest for US multinationals. In fact, Marco Rubio, in his meeting with Lavrov in Riyadh, preparing for the imminent meeting between Trump and Putin, proposed that Russia be exempted from any financial responsibility for the destruction caused in Ukraine.
Trump not only wants to colonise Gaza with US multinationals building luxury resorts in what he has called the ‘Riviera of Gaza’, he also intends that his multinationals, following an agreement signed with Zelenski with all the economic conditions described above, will be in charge of the reconstruction.