Ukraine: an improbable peace

Nor is there really much desire on either side to sit down and negotiate, and it may be a miscalculation for a Zelenski who has shown his bravery to the world. He did not flee with his family as the Kremlin believed.  

The last diplomatic meeting, at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, was attended by 80 leaders, including leaders and delegations from various parts of the world, who gathered for the so-called Summit for Peace in Ukraine on 15 and 16 June. 

Zelenski, who gained fame in his country as a successful television comedian, without any political experience, but catapulted by his enormous popularity, won the elections against Petro Poroshenko with 73.22% of the votes and has been president of Ukraine since 20 May 2019. He never imagined that in less than three years he would be fighting the most important battle of his life, in an arm wrestling match against Putin himself.  

If there is one thing he has shown in all these months, it is his leadership skills. Zelenski has become a respected leader who speaks in the parliaments of several countries, who is present at most international summits and who has won the backing of fractious Western countries and even the unimaginable: attacking Russia with weapons provided by the United States, for example, with its Himars missiles; and with other weapons from other NATO member countries. 

The big question is whether the Ukrainian leader, who has achieved almost everything he has set out to achieve, from more military funding, economic aid, arms, ammunition, military intelligence and direct access to world leaders, will get his way and end up either expelling the invader or imposing his so-called Ten-Point Plan for Peace on it. 

It is the same document he has repeatedly unveiled since July 2022 when Turkey offered to mediate between the two countries and broker a deal to export Ukrainian grain from ports controlled by Russian soldiers.  

Zelenski speaks of a just peace for Ukrainians and in his formula the following conditions are necessary: 1) that Ukraine controls radiological and nuclear safety throughout its territory and that Russian soldiers leave the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant; 2) that Ukraine controls the security of all ports and waters belonging to it in the Black Sea to facilitate the transit of its trade and thus ensure its food security; for this he demands the withdrawal of Russian soldiers from the ports and the withdrawal of all military components in the Black Sea; 3) that Ukraine controls everything related to energy supply and for this it demands that Russian soldiers leave those companies related to electricity, oil, gas or nuclear production that are in Ukraine; 4) the exchange and release of prisoners; 5) respect for the UN Charter on territorial integrity, Ukraine reiterates that it will not allow a partitioned Ukraine; 6) the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all territory, including Crimea, as well as the cessation of hostilities; 7) that Russia be investigated for war crimes; 8) the implementation of a series of programmes against ecocide and the protection of the environment in the face of the devastation of thousands of hectares of bombed crops; 9) the signing of an agreement with several countries as witnesses and guarantors so that Russia commits itself not to invade Ukraine again; and 10) the signing of an armistice between Russia and Ukraine.  

The Ukrainian leader repeatedly cites the UN Charter and international law as the basis for peace negotiations with the Kremlin.  

However, Putin has other plans for his idea of a ceasefire and peace. Among his best-known demands are two: 1) that Kiev hand over to Russia all four of Putin's claimed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporiyia and Kherson. And, in addition, it will continue to control Crimea as it has since 2014; and, 2) that Ukraine signs that it will never join NATO or install NATO bases on its territory.  

No Russian delegation was invited to the Ukrainian peace conclave in Bürgenstock, a fact that Putin took advantage of to launch his demands from Russia, in which he spoke to the Russian press of an "end to peace" that would include Ukraine's commitment to remain a neutral and completely demilitarised territory.  

He did not forget that among the Kremlin's demands is that the West lift all economic, financial and diplomatic sanctions imposed against Russia, members of the Russian government, the Duma and Russian businessmen close to Putin. 

At this point, peace is unlikely at this stage. The demands remain the same as they were two years ago, albeit with more military deaths on both sides and of course civilians, while the destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure remains devastating: the reconstruction bill is estimated at around 450 billion euros, according to the World Bank.  

War is a diabolical game where everyone wants to win and no one wants to lose, where thinking is clouded and dead soldiers are just numbers and civilian suffering is just another anecdote. Every day the war costs Ukraine 200 million euros a day and for its economic survival alone the Ukrainian government needs 15 billion euros by 2024. 

Ukraine has fallen into the Thucydides Trap and is paying a very high cost for it.  The dilemma it faces is either to prolong the war and hold out until Zelensky is killed and the surrender happens on Russian terms with the imposition of a puppet government, or to negotiate a peace on Russian terms and cede to Putin one fifth of its territory full of shipyards, with the powerful Zaporiyia nuclear power plant, an outlet to the Black Sea, refineries and a sizeable steel network, as well as important granaries. In this way it could retain a sovereign and democratic part of the territory, and possibly within the EU.  

In either case, Ukraine's future lies with the Russian government. What does seem unlikely (but not impossible) is that it will be Russia that ends up defeated in its war aggression.  

Putin is waiting for a change of political winds in Washington, without Biden, and with Trump in the White House and is already preparing for the final assault with 50,000 troops ready for action and a worrying mutual defence agreement between Russia and North Korea. Oil in exchange for North Korean missiles and ammunition. Certainly not a sign of immediate peace.