Ukraine: living and surviving in the midst of Putin's war

It has been an exodus that reminds us of the worst times of the great wars in Europe: since 24 February, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to flee the bombardments provoked by the invasion of Russian troops. The UNHCR puts the number of Ukrainian refugees in various parts of Europe at almost 6 million, and another 6 million internally displaced persons. No one has managed to escape this drama.

Olena Kurenkova wore a yellow dress on the day she took part in the international coverage of the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16 June 2021 in Geneva.

While the Ukrainian journalist narrated for the news portal Hromadske.ua the passage of the two leaders' convoys in Parc la Grange, in front of Lake Geneva, I captured the chronicle in situ and collected testimonies for radio and written press in Mexico and Spain.  It was a meeting that transpired coldness between the two delegations. 

At that meeting, the United States and Russia reached a minimal agreement and no one even guessed that eight months later Putin would be ordering his army to invade Ukraine, with the enormous geopolitical consequences that the Slavic military presence has had on the European backyard and the rest of the world. For the US and its allies have taken a stand with sanctions, arms, economic and military aid for Ukraine and refugee reception; however, many other countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia have remained aloof from participating in sanctions against Russia. 

In January 2022, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was trying to stop the invasion of Ukraine at the UN, Kurenkova did not believe, like millions of her compatriots, in the large-scale war offensive that finally took place. They never foresaw the consummation of the threats.

Today, six months later, Kurenkova remains inside Ukraine and, together with her family, refuses to leave the country, despite having suffered all kinds of hardships.

At the beginning of the conflict, the Kremlin tried to take Kiev in a rapid 48-hour operation, but the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army, the people themselves and President Volodymir Zelensky, who decided to stay in place to command the defence, meant that the fall of Kiev was not possible despite the constant bombardment of the capital.

In those early days, the journalist left Kiev with her parents and her 31-year-old brother to take refuge in her mother's house in Irpin, believing that in this town (8 kilometres from the capital) they would be safe from the shelling. Nothing could have been more wrong, because in the first days of March it was razed to the ground by the Russians.

Her mother's house was finally destroyed by the incessant bombardment, her brother was wounded while trying to move his vehicle and was taken to a Kiev hospital overwhelmed by hundreds of wounded and dead, plus all the patients admitted for different pathologies and, of course, sick from the coronavirus, because the pandemic is still raging.

Her family had to take the toughest decision: to separate. Her father and grandfather would remain in Irpin, living in the rubble, waiting for her brother's progress, while she, her mother and grandmother travelled to the centre of the country, to Cherkasy, to take refuge at a friend's house. There, the family was to be reunited once her brother was released.

Since last June, she and her family have returned to Kiev, the missiles from the first days of the invasion have ceased in the capital, which continues to sustain sporadic shelling because Russian troops are concentrated in the eastern and southern region of Ukrainian territory. To date, 20% of the territory remains controlled by Russian troops. 

Not even in the worst moments has Kurenkova stopped reporting or sharing videos narrating the atrocious siege, the death, the destruction, the impunity, the impotence but also the hope and pride in feeling Ukrainian and seeing how her army defends with fierceness and determination the sovereignty of a young nation that, after 31 years of existence, has every right to self-determination.

The journalist, born in 1999 and now working for Suspilne (a public broadcaster), confesses to me her fear of returning to the worst days of February, when the population was shocked by the advance of Russian troops. "We are shocked," she reiterates.

How are you personally?

Emotionally the last month has finally become a bit easier for me, I am now focused and calm. I can work in Kiev, concentrate on my work and, at the same time, help my relatives rebuild the house damaged by Russian shells. It gives me strength to realise that we will definitely win, but now it is a long game, so we must calm our emotions and work for our victory: each in his place and supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Olena, people outside are talking about a long war, what are they saying internally in Ukraine?

Russia's war against Ukraine has been going on for eight years: I think it is important to remember that. And these years have shown very clearly that it is almost impossible to conclude it through negotiations with Russia, because any agreement with the aggressor is very short-lived, it is simply not fulfilled by Russia. I am attracted by the opinion of many Ukrainian experts that the war will continue in one form or another until Putin's regime falls.

In the capital, people have returned to the streets despite the sporadic bombings and the constant sound of sirens, and the Kievites have become accustomed to it. War, like any catastrophe, shows the resilience of human beings; the worrying thing is that human beings end up getting used to it, adapting to the new deformed reality, as if it were part of survival: adapt or die.

Kurenkova shares the internal forecasts discussed among strategists: "Some say that the active phase will last at least until the end of the year or even for years. A war that will drag on for years is one of the worst-case scenarios we can imagine. Playing the long game is very difficult, although to some extent it means for the Ukrainian army the opportunity to act competently and eventually gradually wear down the enemy who, unfortunately, still outnumbers us. Ukraine will be able to win when it inflicts such losses on the Russian army that it cannot recover quickly. We are now seeing signs of a counteroffensive in some areas of the front, counterattacks on Russian military installations in Crimea, but it is not enough".

If there is one thing the Ukrainians have shown, it is admirable fortitude. This is a country of 44.13 million people, although almost 14% of its population has sought refuge in neighbouring countries, most remain stoic in organising defence and resistance to defeat the enemy. 

Life makes its way in the midst of destruction and fear. In Kurenkova's words in Kiev, at times "it seems that life is absolutely normal and usual" and every inhabitant is aware that it is a new reality that will never be similar to the scenario before 24 February, the day of the invasion. 

"Most of the residents who left at the beginning of the full-scale war returned to Kiev. Now, businesses, cafes, recreational facilities such as cinemas and theatres have resumed work in the capital. But everything closes during the air raids, which still happen several times a day, and you have to head for shelter. Of course, you have to obey the curfew, which lasts from 11pm until 5am; during that time you can't go out on the streets, you have to stay at home or in a shelter," she explains. 

People are trying to go about their lives while the army is still fighting a few hundred kilometres from the capital, concentrating on fighting in towns and hundreds of villages in the south and east of the country. With very worrying news from Zaporiyia and its nuclear power plant in the midst of the dispute over its control with the Russians obsessed with disconnecting it from the Ukrainian grid and playing a deadly game of roulette with it to keep Europeans on edge. 

Are they living in a permanent psychosis?
 
We have become accustomed to this new reality: constant anxiety has gradually turned into maximum mobilisation. At the same time, getting used to it from the point of view of rationality is not very good: we often ignore the warning signals of the sirens and do not go down to the shelter.

Olena, I remember asking you in January about the possibility of an invasion and you pointed out that it would be surreal; now Putin is strengthening his army and will recruit 130,000 more troops in January 2023, is it in his intentions to try, again, to overthrow Kiev?
 
I don't think there will be a new attempt to seize Kiev; I have the feeling that in the spring Russian soldiers received a rather decisive rebuff on the approaches to Kiev. But the authorities in the city and in the country warn: as long as the war continues, missile attacks on the capital are very likely.
 
Kurenkova wonders what other "crazy" ideas might be in Putin's head: "Only Putin knows, well, maybe also people close to him. We still periodically hear about the threat of a nuclear attack before some symbolic dates which, as we know, the Russian dictator loves very much. I remember that the nuclear and chemical threat was actively discussed on the eve of 9 May and it happened again on National Flag Day and Independence Day".
 
Then there is the urgency over Zaporiyia: the city has the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and the third largest in the world, taken over by the Russians who have introduced artillery inside the plant and violated several international safety standards for nuclear plants. They have taken the plant as a stronghold from which to attack Ukrainian troops prevented from responding for security reasons. A detonation could cause a huge radioactive leak at the plant, far more damaging than Chernobyl or Fukushima.    
 
"We must not forget how Russia is demonstrably manipulating the situation at the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant captured by the occupiers. It is not for nothing that the UN Secretary General appealed to Russia these days with the demand to avoid a nuclear disaster," she says. 
 

Volodymir Zelenski had the opportunity to flee with his wife Olena Zelenska and their two children aged 9 and 18. US President Joe Biden himself offered the Ukrainian leader refuge and protection in Washington, but he turned it down the very day the invasion began.

To date, he remains the Wagner Group's number one target and there are fears of treason against Zelenski in his inner circle. For the Kremlin, assassinating the Ukrainian leader would allow it to take control of Ukraine more quickly in order to proceed with its plans to install Putin-friendly politicians and rulers.

A few weeks ago, Zelensky ordered the dismissal of Ivan Bakanov, head of the Security Service, and the prosecutor general, whom he accused of wanting to betray him and violate state security.

Externally, the 44-year-old president is respected for his leadership skills and for not running away from Russian troops or being intimidated by threats from a nuclear-armed country.  Zelenski has shown such courage and recklessness that it has irritated Putin. 

But how does Zelenski look inwardly through the eyes of the Ukrainians themselves? Kurenkova answers the question: "Currently there is a high level of trust in Zelenski".

She refers to the most recent poll - from 27-29 June - conducted by the sociological group Rating on behalf of the International Republican Institute's (IRI) Center for Analytical Research (CISR), which indicates that 59% of respondents "strongly support the president's actions" and another 32% "rather support".

"Yes" is less than it was in April: then his actions were fully supported by 74 per cent of respondents, but it is still a good indicator. According to the results of the same poll, more than 90% of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory, precisely in victory on the battlefield and not at the negotiating table," Kurenkova stresses.

What could affect Zelenski's rating? 

I see a very active discussion by Ukrainians in social networks about an article in The Washington Post last autumn about US intelligence warning Ukrainian authorities about the danger of war, but our leadership did not take adequate precautions. I would not like to give an assessment of the actions of President Zelenski and our authorities taking into account the fact that many details of all this, most likely, we will learn after the victory and the end of the war.

The publication referred to appeared on 4 December 2021 and warned of Putin's plans to attack Ukraine following an intelligence leak to The Washington Post. No one thought it possible...