When fate catches up with us
A few days ago, Austrian Defence Minister Klaudia Tanner speculated that Austria, along with the rest of Europe, could experience a major electricity blackout lasting on average two weeks.
Although there is no mass hysteria, Tanner's words have turned into gunpowder, igniting public fears that they could become a reality - sooner rather than later - at a time when the global energy market is undergoing disruption from all the havoc wreaked by the SARS-CoV-2 health emergency.
This time the world energy market is suffering a disruption that is not caused either by a regional conflict between producing and exporting countries due to war, or by a supply shock resulting from a reduction in production that is generally due to decisions also related to geopolitical reasons in which, in one way or another, the main oil or gas producers are trying to exert pressure on the rest of the importing world. In short, there is no boycott, deliberate advice, or the actions of a cartel such as the oil cartel to blame for the current crisis facing the energy market, which is causing varying degrees of nervousness not only in Europe, but also on the other side of the Atlantic, and even in economies such as China.
Since the end of September, the Asian giant has been facing a series of electricity blackouts in several cities with energy rationing measures among its citizens but also among industrialists.
Of China's 31 provinces, almost 70 per cent are experiencing power cuts, and there are various timetables for when the lights go out; some villages with elderly people fear that the arrival of winter will be harsher than ever precisely because of the lack of supply, preventing cookers and other heaters from being turned on.
No economy in the world has ever been prepared for the shutdown and slowdown that for months - and intermittently - was experienced last year in almost every country seeking confinements as a desperate way to contain the speed of the coronavirus contagion.
This paralysis meant no production in many sectors that were considered non-essential, people stayed at home except for the most essential workers.
However, the arrival of the COVID vaccines and their approval for emergency use in the population has allowed rapid progress to be made towards economic recovery as confidence has returned and the uncertainty caused by the fear of the pathogen has been reduced. People have returned to their habits and customs, thus reactivating demand in a faster and more unusual way than the capacity of production to respond and, fundamentally, than the reaction of the distribution sector, which has been overwhelmed in every sense of the word.
Thus, there is a shortage of ships to carry barrels of crude oil, a shortage of ships to carry microchips, a shortage of ships to carry tyres, video consoles, cotton, textiles and various processed products as well as a multitude of primary inputs. The ports continue to show hundreds of empty containers with no available carriers.
The world, in the energy sector, remains highly dependent on the movement of crude oil, gas and coal from one place to another to lubricate trade. With the lack of ships, the winter supply has turned into a yellow light with an alert that, in some countries, is sounding an apocalyptic threat.
Europe looks askance at the electricity rationing already being applied by China, at a time when the Austrian government has decided to raise awareness among its population about the "serious possibility" of suffering a blackout that will leave them for a period of time - several days - without power to connect their phones, or have internet, or be able to store perishable food in their refrigerators.
When can this happen? In Austria they don't know, but for now they have already implemented a campaign entitled 'What to do when it all stops' with the aim of preparing their population at home to face - as best as possible - an emergency situation derived from the lack of electricity supply, advising them to store bottles of water, battery-powered radios, candles, canned food and some portable batteries.
Karl Nehammer, Austrian Interior Minister, also confirms that there will be constant protocols for action in the army to train its soldiers on what to do in this type of contingency to support the population.
The peculiarity of Austria is that its main supply is by tube and comes from Russia; in Spain, the situation is different because 60% of the supply in 2020 came in by ship and the rest by pipe.