Zelenski: the hero of an invasion foretold

One year on from the bloody invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, I have the impression that a lifetime has passed and everything has aged rapidly; even the international institutions seem rusty.  

The United Nations (UN), which was established on 24 October 1945 and stands for "peace, dignity and equality on a healthy planet", has not been able to stop the invasion. It has not been able, in the name of multilateralism, to prevent Putin from invading another country and trying to take it over.  

Nor has it served as a war-prevention mechanism throughout its almost 78 years of existence. The Russian invasion is the first major conventional and hybrid war of the 21st century, which according to General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has already claimed the lives of 100,000 Russian soldiers; 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers; and killed an estimated 40,000 civilians, collateral victims of bombs, missiles and the din of the fighting.  

The destruction has been devastating: Ukraine's GDP has fallen 30.4%, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy; while the Russian economy has plummeted 3% punished by ten sanctions packages imposed by both the US and the European Union (EU) and other allied countries.  

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank agree that in 2022, the Russian economy will contract between 3.4 and 4.5% as a result of sanctions. Both organisations expect Russia's GDP to contract by around 5.6 per cent this year.  

While the European Council argues that the main intention of the sanctions that began on 23 February last year (one day before the invasion, Putin declared the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) is to weaken "Russia's ability to finance the war"; In fact, the boomerang effect in the global village has been inevitable, exacerbated by Russian manoeuvres to raise the prices of energy products - mainly gas and oil - and to prevent the departure of Ukrainian cargo ships loaded with grain and other goods and commodities.  

Energy products and food have been used as a weapon of war by the Kremlin, as well as disinformation and the intention to weaken and affect European democracies. 

The war, its effects and collateral damage, have impacted on global growth because it partly involves Ukraine, which is one of the world's leading granaries with its wheat and maize, not to mention the world's leading exporter of sunflower oil and the country with the largest arable land in Europe. But it is also a leading producer and exporter of metals and minerals, such as iron, steel, uranium, manganese, titanium and others. 

While the aggressor is also another of the world's breadbaskets: Russia is the world's leading exporter of wheat (Ukraine the fourth) and, much more prominently, Russia is the world's largest exporter of gas and the world's third largest producer of oil (first the United States and then Saudi Arabia) and is the world's second largest exporter of crude oil after the Saudi economy.  

With this level of activity, both Ukraine and Russia, being engaged in a conventional war coupled with sanctions, global growth has been dragged down. In 2022, global GDP, according to IMF forecasts, would have stood at 3.4%, falling to 2.9% in 2023.  It is not only Ukraine and Russia whose GDP has been affected, the more developed economies are also paying the price.  

With this level of activity, both Ukraine and Russia, being engaged in a conventional war coupled with sanctions, global growth has been dragged down. In 2022, global GDP, according to IMF forecasts, would have stood at 3.4%, falling to 2.9% in 2023.  It is not only Ukraine and Russia whose GDP has been affected, the more developed economies are also paying the price. 

Within the scenario of the war siege, the figure of the Ukrainian leader, Volodymir Zelensky, has been the big surprise: from anti-hero to patriotic hero; from comedian who became president - in real life - to leader of freedom and defender of the values of Western democracy that the United States likes so much. 

No one saw it coming: not the United States and its allies, and certainly not the Kremlin. The 45-year-old Zelenski is the linchpin of Ukraine's leadership and resistance to a Putin who expected Zelenski to flee and took it for granted that he would seize Ukrainian territory - after a swift takeover of Kiev - to impose a Russian-friendly puppet government. 

President Joe Biden himself offered refuge and protection to his Ukrainian counterpart and his family, but was surprised by Zelensky's imminent response: 'We want weapons, give us all the weapons, to fight Putin'. Ukrainians have been resisting a nuclear power for a year now, standing up to a Putin ever presumptuous to provoke respect through fear.  

One year on, this story would not be written without Zelenski's leadership role, whose performance has energised NATO and seen it rise from the ashes.  The Alliance has had to be strengthened, with a unique cohesion, as a key axis of security, not just for Europe's regional security, but for the world as a whole, in the face of the growing threats and challenges of the 21st century. Today, NATO is stronger than ever in a new phase of military rearmament with the pretence of more lethal and sophisticated weapons. It is one year since the invasion that has aged us all...