Lebanon: quo vadis?

"Lebanon is the Titanic without the orchestra" - Jean-Yves Le Drian - French foreign minister

This autumn, forty years have passed since my first trip to Lebanon and since then I have returned there many times and spent more than four years in the beautiful country of cedars; during that time I had the opportunity to meet relevant Lebanese personalities such as the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, President Michel Aoun (before he was elected) and many others.

Lebanon is emblematic for the Middle East and could be considered a true barometer of the regional geopolitical situation and also for the fact that what has happened in Lebanon over the past decades so far is absolutely true for many countries in the world, countries without resources of their own, bearing multiple foreign influences and facing massive emigration, with numerous refugees on their territories and overrun by corruption.

Although on 31 October 2016 the Lebanese Parliament ended the longest period in the country's history without a president (29 months since the end of President Michel Suleiman's mandate - May 2014) by electing - after 45 parliamentary sessions in which no candidate could obtain the legal quorum - General Michel Aoun, the following period witnessed many political and social upheavals, numerous demonstrations and popular protests and a continuous deterioration of the economic situation. The explosion of 4 August 2020 in the port of Beirut (the largest explosion in recent decades in an urban area in the world) aggravated Lebanon's economic crisis and triggered a new political crisis. It was not until September 2021 that a new government was formed under the leadership of Najib Mikati (prime minister for the third time).

Lebanon is a prisoner of a sectarian political system in which power is shared between the three main religious communities: Maronite Christians, Sunnis and Shiites; however, the political system has reached its limits and the current Lebanese political class has shown that it is neither able nor willing to find an alternative solution.

New parliamentary elections are scheduled for 27 March 2022, and in autumn 2022 the parliament will have to elect a new president. It would not be surprising if the parliamentary elections were postponed and a new political crisis were to emerge. Indeed, politicians' hesitation to reform the current political system is accentuated by the initial promise to grant six seats in parliament to the diaspora (of the more than 8 million Lebanese exiles, only 1.2 million are eligible to vote and a record number of more than 200,000 voters registered for the 2022 elections), a promise that is not in the final form of the electoral law.

It is worth mentioning that the last official census in Lebanon took place in 1932, while unofficial estimates for 2020 indicate a population of 6.8 million and a 2016 research by a Lebanese consultancy firm, cited by the US State Department, shows that the Lebanese population was composed of 45 per cent Christians, 48 per cent Muslims and 5.2 per cent Druze. According to some official data, to this population must be added almost one million Syrian refugees (944,613) and almost 200,000 registered Palestinian refugees. In all likelihood, the actual numbers of refugees are much higher, at least double that of Palestinian refugees.

Economically, Lebanon is witnessing the most severe crisis in 150 years, with GDP falling from $55bn in 2018 to $33bn in 2020 and expected to fall further to $20.5bn in 2021 (World Bank estimates, October 2021) and GDP per capita declining by around 40%. Unemployment rose from 28% in February 2020 to 40% at the end of 2020. According to UN data, 78% of Lebanese live below the poverty line and 36% in extreme poverty.

According to Reuters research, the price of the food index increased by 557% in September 2021 compared to October 2019 and the economy contracted by 30% compared to 2017. The Lebanese pound lost around 90% of its value compared to October 2019.

As for corruption, the latest data published by Pandora Papers mentions the names of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and former Prime Minister and Minister of Education Hassan Diab. The clientelist political system and the way public contracts are allocated at the national level could be the subject of a wide-ranging debate.

In these circumstances, since 2019 alone, 300,000 Lebanese citizens who lost all hope that the domestic situation could improve have emigrated and sought a solution outside the country. Unfortunately, those who left the country and those who will leave the country have a good professional background and an economic situation that can ensure them a fresh start in a new country. These developments will further diminish Lebanon's chances of recovery. A people that, over a long period of time, went through severe crises and saw its vigour eroded by numerous waves of emigration, while being subjected to immigration pressures and foreign interests, is not an inexcusable repository and can be seriously affected by such developments.

Sectarian and group interests are overwhelming and are used by foreign influences (France, Iran, Israel, Turkey, USA, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf countries, China, Russia) to achieve their own goals and to try out solutions to problems related to the area. Such circumstances prompted Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros al-Rai to declare on 15 August 2020 that: "We will not allow Lebanon to become a letter of compromise between nations that want to rebuild ties with each other".

I believe that, in the short term, Lebanon's economic situation will continue to deteriorate, if that is still possible without a further dissolution of the state. In the longer term, the prognosis for developments in the Middle East and especially in Lebanon is extremely indefensible. Nevertheless, the country of cedars fully deserves to be characterised as a barometer of geopolitical developments in the region. Unfortunately, the Lebanese have brought the country to where it is now with the help, of course, of foreign interests. The 2022 elections do not seem to bring optimism and, in the spirit of Lebanese tradition, will be postponed without a clear time horizon. The issue is not the timetable, but finding a viable solution to replace the current sectarian political system, but I do not see a strong political will to do so.

An improvement of the overall situation in the Middle East could have a favourable influence on Lebanon, but I believe it depends first and foremost on the Lebanese. Is it possible for the diaspora to come with a political solution that can be successfully implemented? Does the rich Lebanese emigration want to have a country to return to with fondness and nostalgia? Or will Lebanon continue to sink into conflict without a foreseeable end to the Middle East? I don't see a change for a new beginning in Lebanon - the answer must come from the Lebanese themselves!

Corneliu Pivariu is a highly decorated two-star general in the Romanian Army (Rtd). He has founded and edited for two decades one of the most influential journals on geopolitics and international relations in Eastern Europe, the bilingual journal Geostrategic Pulse. General Pivariu is also a member of the IFIMES Advisory Council.