Ten Years of Arab Spring

We are still very much aware of the illusion with which the democratic world enjoyed the hope that the Arab countries would renounce part of their authoritarian tradition and open up to the freedom and renunciation of absolute power of their inhabitants. But time is running out and in a few days, specifically on the 17th, the tenth anniversary of that burst of hope that was triggered in Tunisia by a modest street vendor of fruit reacting against the arrogance of some high-handed police who insisted on destroying his goods will be celebrated.

It was in the Tunisian town of Sidi Boucid and the young hero who, in his efforts to defend his livelihood, died, leaving a political atmosphere of protest that spread to other countries until it became an international revolution that overthrew some dictatorial regime, shook other satraps and left a trail of blood that in some places has not been covered up.

Such an anniversary is ideal for reviewing its results, but it also reflects the reaction of millions of people to the situation they found themselves in, and the frustration of many of them at the fact that, except in Tunisia, their situation has not changed at best and has worsened in the rest. The Arab revolutions have in one way or another degenerated into wars that have already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and cannot yet see the light of peace.

The harshest and longest is Syria's, joined by Libya and Yemen. Tunisia, the luckiest, got rid of the satrap Ben Ali and his sinister wife, who had to flee into exile. Democracy was established immediately, but not without difficulties. The threat of Jihadist terrorism, which linked fear to the effect of the economic crisis that led to the fall of tourism, the main source of income, contributed to the instability created.

In Egypt, a key country in its regional influence, the Jasmine Revolution as it was called triggered a wave of often violent demonstrations which, after claiming many victims, forced Hosni Mubarak to resign. The success of the free elections won by the Muslim Brothers, the fundamentalist movement that moved underground, led their leader, Mohamed Morsi, to become president for a year. A coup d'état led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who boasted that he did not want power, led him to take over the government, returning to the repressive regime that had been in place since Nasser.

Far from bringing about substantial changes and liberalising measures, al-Sisi's new dictatorship rebelled worse than Mubarak's. Meanwhile, in Libya, the death of the oppressor Muammar al-Qadhafi when he attempted to escape triggered a crisis that divided the country and immediately triggered a war with international implications for which no end is in sight. The same is true of Yemen, where the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia sparked off tribal clashes and the country has now been in armed conflict for seven years with its newly divided territory-it is still a recent phenomenon of two countries with two capitals and two presidents.

Algeria was also influenced, albeit belatedly, by the political springs that the people claimed with huge demonstrations that were resolved with scarcely any victims and forced the retirement of the elderly and ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the calling of elections and the establishment of the Hirak, which, although it made some improvements in the field of freedoms, is still far from meeting citizens' demands. 

The situation improved considerably, at least for the time being, in Sudan. The protests against the dictator Omar al-Bashir led his colleagues in the armed forces to imprison him and assume power from which they are beginning a transition with civilian participation that is evolving positively. In contrast, in Lebanon, the country with the longest democratic tradition, the stability that was maintained thanks to a complex constitution that was respected, the degradation of the system, together with the deterioration of the economy and the interference of Islamism, are bringing the state to the brink of disintegration.

Meanwhile, in the Arabian Gulf, some emirates such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have made some progress, albeit slight. And in Arabia, the hopes pinned on the crown prince, who already holds full power, are increasingly dashed by his initiatives, such as the assassination of Adnan Kashoggi, which show that the regime's cosmetic reforms are fading away. Iraq, Morocco and Mauritania are the three countries in which the Spring has not improved much, but neither has it worsened. 

As a political assessment, five of the heads of state who faced up to the popular claims of their springs have died or are no longer in power. The one who is resisting, at the cost of many hundreds of thousands of victims, is the Syrian.