US elections begin at minus 40 degrees Celsius
At two o'clock in the morning Spanish time, seven o'clock in the afternoon in Iowa and at more than 40 degrees below zero, the long and complex campaign begins that after ten months will lead the Americans to elect the forty-seventh of their presidents.
The process, which will be undertaken by the Democratic and Republican aspirants to the nomination, after the respective conventions, until the fifth of November, begins with some of the curiosities accumulated each quadrennium by the campaigns that will now extend relentlessly throughout the federal territory.
Iowa and New Hampshire
The first is the fact that it starts in Iowa, a state of little importance in the American Midwest, with little more than three million inhabitants and its little-known capital, which if it stands out for anything, it is for its name: Des Moines, of French origin, in English "Of the Monks".
The other is the respect with which Iowans maintain the tradition of the caucus, the assembly system inherited from the Indians who populated the area to make decisions and elect their chiefs by a show of hands. It has to be said that technically its quaintness is valuable, but it is open to bungling.
Voters gather in the evening in every district of the state, listen to the candidates, and those assembled raise their hands in approval, which makes it difficult to count and later, in a complicated job that often takes weeks, to add up the data from each of the districts - data that is always open to errors, doubts and complaints. The lack of rigour of this system was the reason why the Democrats gave up their participation, surely also convinced that their chances of winning and winning the seats are very difficult.
Iowa is a Republican state par excellence. 80% of its voters are white and conservative. Besides, the caucuses are a system that often limits participation, as was the case this year because of the cold weather and the difficulties for women with children and young students or workers to attend, which leaves the result at the mercy of the elderly, retired or fans of one of the candidates.
On this occasion three candidates are competing and among them Donald Trump is the clear favourite, with 48% in the polls, the candidate for re-election as president, with a bad memory as a coup leader for many, the protagonist of scandals and the subject of dozens of criminal proceedings.
Even his main adversary so far in the general polls, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, is relegated to third place by Trump's former UN ambassador, Nikki Haleg. Trump displays this data with his characteristic arrogance, although the experts do not attach any particular significance to them. Moreover, no winner of the Iowa caucuses has held his lead for long or won the primaries since 1970. The real interest is fixed on the New Hampshire primaries, which begin on the 24th and tend to be the ones that anticipate the prospects of those that will follow in the states considered decisive.
Joe Biden's re-election bid limits the participation of other significant Democratic candidates. But the results of the New Hampshire primary are expected to point to indications of the incumbent's chances of overcoming the fears that his advanced age raises among supporters.
The possibility that the November election will once again be between Biden and Trump, who continues to add to his fanatical following, is a cause for concern. The prevailing view is that the US is in need of renewal, especially at a time when the international landscape is going through dramatic times with a scenario of two wars dragging on and a third around the Red Sea breaking out.