Europe in ecstasy

In addition, the war has also provoked tensions within the EU itself, a situation that is likely to increase. A vital question for Europe is to define what role it wants to play in the world, whether or not it can and wants to be a strategic actor, a bridge between blocs or a border zone. 

Never before has the EU had to face an international situation plagued by crises that pose numerous threats and challenges. Perhaps the main problem facing the EU is that it tends to see itself as a superstate when, in reality, it is as close as possible to a confederation of states, each motivated by its own interests, through the exercise of sovereignty. The basic challenge to integration can be identified with what is known in economic and political theory as the "collective action problem". It arises in groups where actors would be better off cooperating, but are deterred from doing so by individual incentives that work against joint action. The "collective action problem" is that all parties would be worse off than if they had been able to overcome the barriers to cooperation.  

In this situation, Brussels has not been able to develop the longed-for Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This also leads to the difficulties of managing divergent economies within a monetary union in which the European Central Bank plays an essentially political role to avoid rupturing imbalances between member states' economies.

This situation means that there is a lack of a genuine common European policy to facilitate integration, which is weighed down by particular national interests that even threaten the existence of the single market. The reality is that the European single market is not integrated in the same way as, for example, the American single market. This is the reason for the currently low dynamism in the crucial information and communication technology sector. It is symptomatic that only one European company, ASML, is among the top ten technology companies in the world.  

There is nothing to be optimistic about. In a more fragmented and nationalistically driven international context, even Germany, the real engine of Europe, is finding it increasingly difficult to find markets to absorb its production. High energy costs are a threat to its heavy industry. And then there is the push from China and the United States' moves towards an interventionist and protectionist policy.  

The EU faces a global context of political, economic and military decline. The particular interests of the various states deprive it of a strong voice on the international stage, where it usually acts at the beck and call of the United States. In this context, Europe's real sovereignty is almost utopian. 

Normally, Franco-German relations have oscillated according to circumstances; now they are in dire need of a boost, as national leaders give the impression that they do not get along. France has a president, Emmanuel Macron, dynamic and eloquent, a 'figurehead' in bold statements. Germany's Olaf Scholz has a reputation as a sullen chancellor with a reticence when it comes to policy formulation. 

The odd couple risks becoming an incompatible relationship, as it undermines the EU's necessary future ability to cope with war on its borders, the growing nationalism of its population and an economic situation that causes the EU to fall further and further behind the US and China. 

Lacking a shared goal with Germany, Macron has embraced the situation with a series of measures that he says are necessary to halt Europe's long-term decline. Away from the hearing, Scholz's quiet performance could produce equally profound changes for the continent. 

Macron's vision is first and foremost to implement an innovative European policy, capable of creating a much more efficient capital market and investing much more with a common budget as Europeans and with the private sector. A tailor-made regional programme similar to the Biden administration's industrial policy package. In turn, his arguments for European 'strategic autonomy' in security, defence and across industry also seem to be receiving more support as great power rivalry tightens its grip on the continent.  

France's problem is that it needs Germany to achieve these ends, given that it is the EU's most populous nation and largest economy - an inevitability. The proposal for a much larger common EU budget, financed by joint loans backed by Berlin, is unlikely to work with Scholz's coalition.  

The crisis in the German coalition government had its roots in the government's decision in spring 2023 to shut down Germany's last remaining nuclear power plants, amid a historic energy crisis in Europe's former industrial powerhouse, which is undergoing rapid deindustrialisation.   

The apparent reason was that the closure had long been planned and ordered by law. Economy minister and Green vice-chancellor Robert Habeck said the closure was irreversible because experts had told him it was impossible to extend the plants' lifespan in the short term. In April, a research report in the German magazine Cicero reported that experts from the Ministry of Economics had concluded that nuclear power plants could continue to operate for several more years without problems. The solution must be realistic, but green ideology has a prominent place in political correctness. 

One certainty: foreign policy remains one of the least integrated elements of the EU. This was demonstrated, for example, by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on a trip to China in early November 2022. This visit was met with a barrage of criticism from European partners for denoting blatant unilateralism, as Germany's interests clashed with those of the other EU members.  

French President Emmanuel Macron frequently refers to the importance of sovereignty and autonomy. However, when Macron hosted Chinese president Xi Jinping, there was little evidence of such European assertiveness. 

Instead of tough negotiations on Ukraine and trade, Xi was offered a light-hearted programme of talks for his visit, during which he deftly avoided broaching any uncomfortable topics. In addition to France, he visited Serbia and Hungary, two countries that are likely to help Beijing keep the European authorities divided. Xi's trip to Europe can be considered a complete success from Beijing's perspective. In their relations with China, European countries have their own interests at heart, lacking a European strategy. In this way, the Beijing regime can neutralise Europe on the geopolitical stage. 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, together with the threat posed by energy dependence and climate change, have awakened Europeans to the need to invest in both defence and an energy transition model. The era of dependence on the US for defence, China for exports and Russia for energy is over. The geopolitical and economic model on which Europe has been based since the end of the Second World War has disappeared. However, Europe is also discovering that this new era of geopolitical competition is costly. Despite having created a monetary union with a common currency, the euro, and a powerful Central Bank, the European Union lacks a fiscal union and a common fiscal policy.