And the wolf... appeared

As well as the destruction of its capabilities to harbour and develop such devices and their means of delivery and protection. 

To prevent this from happening, the once ‘ad hoc’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had been monitoring the capabilities and developments of all potential proliferating countries, and in particular these two recalcitrant outcasts. This Agency is the main actor in verifying compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by non-nuclear-weapon states, ensuring through its actions that nuclear energy, which is legally used worldwide for various peaceful activities, is not diverted to military purposes. 

To this end, the international community (IC) has provided the IAEA with various types of coercive tools, the power to carry out inspections with its own inspectors, even without prior notice, and a path open to a wide range of international sanctions under the umbrella of the UN and other groups or alliances, almost always led by the Americans. 

For years, this system of checks and balances due to IAEA controls proved to be more or less effective—often all the ‘bad guys’ or proliferators played cat and mouse with the IAEA—and the effectiveness of its decisions or threats to carry them out depended on the degree of commitment and willingness of the United States and, at times, Russia to pressure, launch or actually execute them. 

Numerous and famous resolutions have been issued by the IAEA, backed by the UN at different levels, and very little has been achieved in return for so much economic expenditure and great personal and diplomatic effort. 

It is public knowledge that the capacity and real weight of the IC has been declining over the last five years and that the US, driven by other bilateral interests or the whims of its last few presidents, has been losing interest in a region such as the Middle East. Tired of such high costs and efforts over many years, it has been transforming its permanent deployments into a series of bilateral agreements with some neighbours in the area and abandoning others that were once ‘close friends’ or essential countries in the area, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and Israel, mainly. However, there are certain nuances and major differences between them, both as a group and individually. 

On the other hand, Arab countries are tired of so many conflicts in the area and among themselves and need a certain degree of respite to develop their economies and steer them towards greater effectiveness in the medium and long term. 

We must not forget that American interests are closely linked to those of the Israelis and that most of the great fortunes in the United States are of Jewish origin or bear the Jewish stamp. This is a fundamental element in understanding that, as we are seeing progressively and even recently, it is impossible to leave Israel isolated and to its fate, whoever the American president may be. 

For years, those of us who have been closely following these potential conflicts have identified the main obstacles to effective action against Iran as its distance from Israel and the fact that most of its production, enrichment and storage facilities are located underground at great depths, meaning that any means of bombardment (bombs and missiles) would need to be capable of penetrating reinforced concrete and, in addition, the aircraft used to launch them would have to have a very large range (more than 1,100 kilometres in each direction) or be able to refuel easily and safely in flight. For years, only the Americans had the necessary quantities of such weapons at their disposal. 

Recently developed materials, such as the Israeli-made MPR-500 bombs, which can penetrate one metre of reinforced concrete and have apparently already been used against Iran, and the enormous possibilities offered by drones, which are widely used in the war in Ukraine, have changed the outlook for both of the aforementioned and seemingly insurmountable difficulties. Although I recognise that the issue of range remains important and, for the moment, I do not know how they are solving it; whether they refuel in flight with relative ease or launch the drones closer and in sufficient numbers to maintain an effective air battle. 

As for the system and means of locating and tracking Iranian aircraft, missiles and drones against Israeli territory, to date this has been solved quite successfully with the well-known Iron Dome and some American assistance. However, reports have already been published showing that the dome has been partially overcome and that there is significant material damage to civilian housing developments in Israel's major cities, something never seen before and which could cause civilian support for this initiative against Iran to wane. 

The partial success of Iranian support for Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza, respectively, has caused some delays in achieving Israeli success in both territories and is undoubtedly a further incentive to force Israel to weaken, if not suppress, Iran's external support capabilities for its disciples or proxies. 

But undoubtedly, what worries Israel most is that Iran has been promising – since the fall or overthrow of the Shah of Persia (Mohammad Reza Pahleví) in 1979 – the total eradication of Israel from the map as a country, the annihilation of its population and the conquest of all its territories. These threats, as Iran's nuclear programme gains strength and shape, make its eradication or a significant delay in time increasingly urgent, especially when the US no longer adopts a position of strength against Iran or its nuclear ambitions, as it had been doing for many years, and now limits itself to responding only if Iran attacks US targets or facilities. 

In any case, despite its political and military weakening in recent regional conflicts, Iran still has certain trump cards up its sleeve that are not yet easy to assess, such as the real consistency of the physical protection of its facilities, the effective scope of its nuclear programme, the large number and capabilities of its missiles, its government's iron grip on the population and its very high morale as a nation; all elements that will influence the course of events in the near future. To this must be added the fulfilment of its threats, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and, in addition, the withdrawal from the NPT, which would mean vetoing the IAEA's inspection activities. Putin, the man for all seasons, already has enough on his plate with his own war in Ukraine, which has already cost nearly a million lives in the Russian army. He continues to try to extract the maximum benefit from his efforts in that conflict and is in no position to act more than half-heartedly in this new conflict. If not handled quickly and effectively, this conflict could lead the world into a Third World War or a major economic crisis if, as has already been mentioned and seems likely, Iran decides to close or block the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the real bottleneck for global oil transport. 

The support of the United States and other allies close to Israel in this conflict is, for the moment, keeping a low profile and seems limited to improving warning, detection and defence capabilities against the many and varied means that Iran launches daily and massively on Israeli territory. Trump is not interested in getting involved in an unwanted and uncomfortable conflict for his interests, a conflict that could be the icing on the cake of his failures as a ‘peacemaker’ in recent entanglements such as Gaza and Ukraine, which would further distance him from his long-awaited Nobel Peace Prize and diminish his internal and external credibility. 

Europe is beginning to tremble over the issue of oil prices and a nearby conflict with potentially serious consequences for immigration. But, as usual, given its current political, economic and military weakness, it continues to send empty, banal messages with no capacity for effective action. Here in Spain, our president, who has been setting himself up as the greatest defender of all more or less noble causes, although all of them are lost causes, and who fights against windmills like Don Quixote, has strangely not opened his mouth personally, only through his petty and dictatorial foreign minister, who, as always, has rushed to issue vacuous messages with no impact whatsoever. Although, of course, Sánchez's role is hardly surprising, given the mess they have in their government, party, family and perhaps even personally.