Changes in the world order

It is nothing more than a description and classification of the role that each of the different powers vying to lead the world and greatly influence their peers and, above all, their followers could play. 

Based on its definition, it does not take much thought to recognise that, for more than eighty years, the summit of this world order has been dominated by two superpowers, the United States and Russia, which led what was happening in their environment and even beyond their areas of influence, depending on the interest that such events aroused for their short-, medium- and even long-term benefits. 

History has shown us that no empire has lasted forever and that, for one reason or another, each and every one of them has fallen precipitously or gradually until they have come to mean very little or even disappeared as such from the international arena of influence. 

The old Soviet power had been losing its ability to remain at the top of the world order for some years prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall. From that moment on, no matter how hard its successive leaders tried, the collapse of its components was unstoppable, and it lost its role as a strong power and with it all its capabilities, including military, political, commercial and industrial. No one would have thought a decade ago that, after three years of bloody and total war in Ukraine, Russia would be unable to prosper and occupy little more than a few kilometres and a few cities on Ukrainian territory. 

In such struggles, no one usually stands alone without others approaching, threatening or overshadowing them. In leadership, like gases in chemistry, everyone tends to expand and occupy the space that others forget or leave empty. 

The recent and current unbridled race in science and research has given way to previously unknown theories and methods. So much so that it can be said without error that their discoveries have not been the result of chance but have been tested and supported by new elements unknown to many and which the rest, even if they knew about them, came to underestimate or despise. I am referring, of course, to the many possibilities of artificial intelligence, robotics, computing and the role to be played by new elements or capabilities derived from what, due to ignorance and for many years, we have called and still call rare earths. 

No matter how hard Putin tries to stay on the scaffolding of triumph, and no matter how much Trump helps him now in this task—understanding that he is much better company for Xi Jinping—Russia will gradually abandon its role and global influence. It may take some time for it to fall into irrelevance, unless new emerging countries eager for power and prominence, such as China and India, want to wipe it off the map soon. 

China has been working in the shadows for many years, changing its working system and its commercial and military ideas, although in order to carry out such an immense undertaking and, at the same time, dominate a people that is too large, it decided to maintain its communist and dictatorial ideology to become, in unison, one of the most advanced countries in technology and industrial production, even at the cost of being, at the same time, the place where the free market, human rights and social justice are least respected. 

It started by spying on and copying and even buying everything that moved and could be useful at any time or place. No one gave them the importance they deserved, and thanks to that incomprehensible contempt, today they have the most modern army in the world (including thermonuclear weapons), capable of projecting its force over long distances, with a navy and air force worthy of the utmost respect for being in a league of their own. With tentacles and economic and industrial connections on every continent in the world and almost exclusive control over the exploitation of the aforementioned rare earths, now well known, and other energy products with great potential. 

Without being intimidated in the slightest, it is standing up to Trump's threats and bravado, thanks to the peace of mind afforded by all its capabilities and possibilities and the not inconsiderable fact that it holds most of the US debt, with all the risks that this entails for the US. It does not depend on anyone and does not need major external support. It dominates and controls global textile production and is on its way to doing the same with the military and automotive industries and their most important components, such as batteries. It has a network of new ‘silk roads’ that reach all corners of the world, making it the world's leading supplier. Its business is booming. In short, it has replaced Chinese bazaars and spring rolls on every corner of the world with other more flourishing, productive and highly profitable businesses. 

Today, it is in a position to challenge Russia for its role in the world order, with a significant advantage, and I am sure it will win. 

Order, whose leadership does not necessarily have to be occupied by only two players. As we have seen with Chinese power, we must not leave behind India, the world's most populous country, which is advancing by leaps and bounds and will soon, like chickpeas packed tightly in a pot, need relief or an escape valve to release so much knowledge, values and spirit of self-improvement of a country that has traditionally been ignored and rarely taken into consideration despite its area of influence and potential conflicts with some of its neighbours, especially Pakistan, a country that, let us not forget, is very unstable and possesses nuclear weapons. 

In short, the world is currently immersed in a very fast-paced movement seeking to establish a new world order in which certain novices and a few old players will play an important role. This situation dramatically explains, albeit only in part, Trump's so-called or perceived expansionist whims regarding Greenland, the Baltic Sea and Canada, among others. It is not for nothing that each and every one of these places or territories buries millions of tonnes of increasingly necessary rare earths in its borders, which Trump and the US need to avoid being displaced from the top positions of the blessed world order in the near future. This is something that is unthinkable for both Trump and his fellow citizens and, if it were to happen, they would not be able to bear it.