Here we go!
Very recently, the world witnessed, almost speechless and completely stunned, a series of meetings, including a large military parade, between three of the four most powerful countries in terms of military and technological strength (Russia, North Korea and India), two of which are among the top three or four economic powers in the world today.
That meeting, tinged with hints of a grand alliance that could never have been imagined until the day it became apparent, should have been more than enough to make us tremble. Tremble, not only because of the military and nuclear capabilities that these powers represent together, accounting for 40% of the world's population, but also because of the very words picked up by an open microphone, in which the three leaders joked as they discussed the possibility of living on earth for up to 150 years.
The rest of the world continued to develop and evolve in low- and medium-intensity conflicts, and Uncle Sam - Donald Trump - continued to send out incoherent and difficult-to-fulfil messages to solve long-standing problems or to manage, as he saw fit, the tariffs that have all the world's economies in a mess, albeit with varying degrees of involvement and danger.
It seemed that nothing new could happen, and even the most intrepid or disoriented continued to spout their cheap rhetoric or bravado against the new “global enemy” (Israel), which many uninformed people now openly accuse or label as pure “genocide”.
The EU, which is neither here nor there, with the hesitant and ineffective President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, at the helm, continues at its own pace with the money-printing machine in the form of loans to try to cover unpayable economic debts resulting from our present or past misjudgements, or from shameful waste by irresponsible governments. And now, another incredible sum of billions is at stake to meet the increasingly necessary and urgent purchase of military equipment and investment in defence infrastructure. This is another opportunity or circumstance wasted by Spain, a country which, in its attempt to appear progressive, has only requested €1 billion, placing us in the second-to-last position, when every other country in our region with fewer needs has requested several hundred billion.
For her part, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, blames the decision-making system for its inefficiency, giving the impression of deep-rooted inactivity on the part of Europe in the face of the war in Gaza. In harsh statements, she said that she leaves her predecessor Borrell with his pants down for his terrible role in the conflict, and did not hesitate to be very critical of the actions of Israel and Hamas in Gaza, her predecessors in office, with special mention and negative relevance of the latter.
In the midst of all this chaos (a word used in its literal sense in Italian), the despot Putin, seeing that there was no significant reaction to the debut of his new triumvirate, decided to stir things up a bit more and launched nineteen or twenty drones to crash into Poland after travelling more than 200 kilometres to the point of impact.
This act should be classified as aggression by NATO and invoke Article 5 of the Alliance Treaty, which refers to the collective defence of NATO territory when any of its members feels attacked.
The article literally states: "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all; consequently they agree that, in the event of such an armed attack, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked, adopting immediately, individually and in agreement with the other Parties, the measures it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic region".
But instead, Article 4 of the Treaty was invoked, which literally states that ‘the Allies shall consult whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened’. In other words, a very lukewarm reaction on the part of the Alliance to many explicit and misleading statements, or at least false hopes, on the part of Trump, which give this work its title.
Based on what was adopted, most of the representatives of the member countries contacted each other in an emergency meeting to discuss possible steps to be taken in due course if things escalate. A virtual or real meeting or encounter to which, as has become traditional, our unreliable Prime Minister was not invited, making it clear and underlining that they no longer count on Spain for matters of importance and that in the international arena, individual or collective arrogance and snubs always end up being paid for.
In recent hours, there has been talk of more relaxed meetings, but initially somewhat more forceful on the part of the Alliance to show a strong and common stance with which to stop or at least appease Putin's dalliances with something as momentous as the start of a third world war, as some are already announcing or seriously fearing, and in which Russia's aforementioned “new allies” could be involved.
Personally, and given our capabilities, I believe that nothing momentous will happen, except for serious announcements from the allies to try to get started, excuses from Putin or formal promises that it was an accident but that there is no sign of it happening again. Time will tell. I would not like to be wrong in this judgement and assessment of urgency.