Iran, that thorn in the side

Iran is an Islamic Republic covering 1,648 million square kilometres located in the Persian Gulf. It has historical sites dating back to the Persian Empire, whose capital was founded by Darius I in the 6th century BC. Its population in 2023 reached almost 91 million, mostly Shiites, whose government has certain characteristics that give it a special regime based on theocracy, giving rise to a unitary state, although its official parliamentary and presidential system is maintained under the supervision of a complex system of checks and balances that exercise multiple controls and, we could say, where there is a high level of mistrust between the different powers. 

It has a powerful army in the classical style, although poorly armed and ill-trained, with a number of serious shortcomings. In addition, there is what is known as the Revolutionary Guard, which is where the real military power lies, with a large number of members, great projection capacity (the Qods), high levels of training and equipped with a wide range of sophisticated resources, mainly aircraft and large long-range artillery with a high and undetermined number of missiles of all ranges and precision, many of them equipped with solid fuels, which makes them easier and quicker to get into position, making it difficult to locate them before they fire. In addition to the above, the Revolutionary Guard also includes the notorious Basij Forces for the Organisation and Mobilisation of the Poor, known for their cruelty in maintaining public order when the population rises up against the regime for political reasons or in protest against famine or many other pressing demands of a fairly educated but very needy and largely drug-addicted population. 

Multiple international sanctions for its non-compliance with the scope and dimensions of its nuclear programme and other minor issues have led it to increase its instinct or distrust and to take advantage of new technologies received or copied from certain external sources, which have been used primarily in the development and refinement of its missiles and drones (the main supplier of these devices to Russia). 

Its national doctrine, in simplistic terms, is based on national exaltation at all costs; intransigence in the face of cultural or religious expansionism outside the norms they have set for themselves; and the spread and establishment of the Shiite religion against the Sunni religion throughout the world, although this is not always the case with this branch, as it depends on their interests in each place (Lebanon or Gaza); in their hatred of the US and, fundamentally, as mentioned above, in the struggle for the eradication and disappearance of Israel from the face of the earth. 

The Iranian nuclear programme was launched in the 1950s under the auspices of the United States. Iran is currently the seventh largest producer of uranium hexafluoride and controls the entire nuclear fuel cycle in several production, processing and enrichment centres, mainly in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. It has a single nuclear power plant in Bushehr. All of these have been the target of major attacks by the Israeli air force for several days (to weaken or neutralise their anti-aircraft defences) and, early on Saturday morning, by US naval and air forces supported by their allies in the area and in close coordination and cooperation with the Israelis, all as part of what is known as 'Operation Midnight Hammer'. 

The expansion and deployment capabilities of the Qods and their great effectiveness in training and feeding other terrorist groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, the jihadist forces in Syria and Iraq, Hamas in Palestine (Sunni) and Hezbollah in Lebanon (Shiite) - all of them with the aim of destabilising the areas of deployment and hindering the actions of the United States or Israel, as the case may be - and its constant references to and disregard for the warnings and advice of the IC to halt the development and evolution of its nuclear programme, as well as its threats to the existence or survival of Israel, have led the two powerful allies in the region – Israel and the US – to devise a medium-term plan that could be summarised as the progressive weakening of Iran's tentacles in the terrorist groups it has nurtured until their almost total extinction and, once these objectives have been achieved in their areas of deployment or usual location, to go directly to the heart of the matter, the defences of the facilities and their own nuclear capabilities, using the appropriate means at any given time through a series of effective, selective and highly psychological attacks to finally leave them empty-handed and without any serious military or terrorist response capability when attacked with force, and, furthermore, with the least possible damage to the Iranian civilian population. 

Thus, Israel has carried out virtually all the efforts to neutralise the capabilities of most terrorist groups outside Iran, has weakened the main anti-aircraft defences covering the production and enrichment centres of its nuclear programme and, finally, has maintained its support for its powerful cousins who have deployed powerful means and weapons unique in the world, which appear capable of having endangered and completely damaged, or at least significantly delayed, the Iranian nuclear programme. 

It is true that the know-how of the techniques and procedures for obtaining and enriching the material needed to create nuclear bombs remains in the hands of the Iranians and they will be able to try again; but this time they will not do so in the same way or under the auspices or half-closed eyes of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it is now clear that they cannot be trusted; they know the capabilities and real determination of the IC to prevent it, and after this unexpected attack they will no longer disregard US and Israeli decisions and plans on issues that concern them and are serious, such as going to war, if necessary. 

However, this does not mean that the conflict is over, and Iran may take serious reprisals, such as the already announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil and gas passes, and its military capabilities remain almost intact. However, given the little real support it has left in the region and even in the world (Putin, despite buying massive quantities of drones from it, already has enough on its hands with Ukraine and seems to be allowing Trump a lot of leeway there in exchange for his non-interference in this other issue, and China is focused on its neighbouring interests) and will therefore have to bow to reality and keep its head down under the auspices of the UN, given that its aggressors have been very careful to tell the world, on many occasions, that their attacks are directed exclusively against Iran's illegal nuclear programme and that they do not seek to overthrow or change the Iranian government. 

The Chinese and Russian reactions to date are very lukewarm and quite significant. As negative factors, we can consider the real damage done to the nuclear facilities, since the nuclear radiation around them has not changed much, which is very significant and negative, and on the other hand, the enormous possibility that Iran will act against one or more of the military bases within its reach or range that house thousands of US troops. On the positive side is the message sent by Trump today by withdrawing the B-2 bombers that participated in the action, thus showing that he no longer intends to use them again.