Quo vadis mundi

Nowadays, anything that requires a certain degree of repose, such as giving an opinion, making decisions and changing one's mind or attitude, is done more frequently and more quickly. The frenetic evolution of events, the lack of well-founded social and moral criteria and the fleeting loss of interest in events, even those of importance - despite the bombardment of information - mean that things are really approached and studied with little time to proceed to an exhaustive and accurate analysis.

We move from one subject to another very easily, burying most issues soon after they occur and without having fully digested them. Big lobbies and almost every government, led by strange and hidden political, economic, mafia or religious forces, keep most of the media and networks under control and dictate editorial policy, so that information is filtered and translated into opinion, which quickly becomes public. Civil society, lacking real cultural or moral roots and roots, is now an easily controlled and manipulated wimp.

Although every day we see and hear headlines about natural catastrophes or environmental problems, new or old endless wars, attacks, threats or terrorist acts, massive movements of refugees, embezzlement of public money and even that in the USA, which has been an "example" of democratic respect, everything was turned upside down after Trump's allegations of election rigging and dark implications in popular riots to storm its sacrosanct house, the Senate, when it comes to the moment of truth, the individual, the individual and the public, the individual, the individual and the public, the individual, the individual and the public, the individual, the individual and the public, the individual, the individual and the public, the individual and the public, the individual and the public, the individual and the public; when it comes down to it, individually and collectively, we don't give a damn about anything; only the news that brings economic or political revenue persists for months or years. Everyone goes about their own business and is only moved by what keeps them awake at night; issues that, when they become known, are pitiful or laughable because of their insignificance.

Politicians, apart from too many satraps and dictators who dominate and terrorise much of the world, are not a caste born on special trees; they come from society and tend to carry with them what they have been sucked into it like everyone else. Although certain leadership qualities are demanded and assumed of them - perfect over time - their preoccupations tend to revolve around their armchair, improving their status, increasing their tenure and appearing or appearing to do much more than they are capable of contributing.

They are a decadent and degraded caste that, with honourable exceptions, is driven by egocentrism, chauvinism, incompetence and covering their backs with hundreds of advisors, which is why it is impossible to expect good, quick and inexpensive solutions to serious national or international problems from them leadership that has certainly not been earned by the quality and moral drive of, at least, its most recent presidents, but by the immense machinery and enthusiasm that its citizens - forgoing other privileges that others enjoy - have been able to set in motion and grease. Everything suggests that the old and tired Biden is experiencing very bitter moments and could be the one who closes the door on the ephemeral world leadership.

In leaderships, as in monarchies, the dead king is as good as the new king. For some time now, no one has been unaware that Russia and China are the new contenders for this position. China has the most to gain by virtue of its economic capacity, its significant sustained development over time, its large population and the iron discipline and spirit of work that its leader, Xi Jinping - who has become eternal like Putin and Kim - imposes on his people.

There are other courtiers who are trying to expand their counties with a view to the near future and in case, one day, they have to row in the same direction. I refer, albeit to varying degrees, to India, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran among a few others.

The International Community (IC) and several of its Organisations, such as the UN and NATO, after the Afghanistan crisis converted into mere observers, have shown that their mandates, foundations, missions, decision-making capacity and massive structures constitute a machinery that is too costly and heavy, that no longer solves anything and that nobody obeys; therefore, they will have to change a lot, because of the risk of disappearing or becoming irrelevant.

The EU has spent many years of minimal survival based on investing many millions - which it does not have -, it has been involved in serious issues such as its disastrous and still undigested Brexit, the role it has not played with the refugees - except for paying for them to be looked after by others - in the crises in the Middle East and North Africa and its serious inoperativeness in the current crisis in Afghanistan.

It is clear that Europe's aspirations are really a dream or a chimera; it has never really gone beyond a commercial, social and economic association with certain scope and limitations. Its lack of leadership, the constant infighting, the lack of preparation of many of its leaders, the uncertainty of the upcoming elections in Germany and France, and the fact that when they do not know what to do they revert to unworkable ideas such as a European military force, are patent and pathetic. It has never succeeded in choosing someone competent enough to develop and successfully implement its changing foreign policy.

Wars, their consequences and aftermath are always serious. The world, from paradise on earth, is a hostile space where we do not know how to be without war. Threats are constant and armies are puppets in the hands of daring and inexperienced politicians who manipulate them at will and praise or repudiate them according to the convenience of the moment.

Despite the great evolution of the Armed Forces in all areas, the fact that they are true professionals and have greatly improved their tactics, techniques, procedures and weaponry, recent experience suggests that their advice, analyses and predictions are rarely taken into consideration by politicians, as has happened in the evacuation of Afghanistan. A shameful and hasty disaster - preceded by other similar disasters of lesser magnitude - due to a lack of organisation and foresight (last-minute reaction due to the CNN effect) which, although some try to spin it as a success, will go down in the annals of military history like those of Dunkirk, the Philippines or the Annual.

Such withdrawals are not usually spontaneous; they are due to major losses of interest, political motives or new needs emerging on the horizon that require funds and means currently employed. As a result, it is likely that we will soon see the three great powers (the US, China and Russia to a lesser extent) - all together or paired in pairs - engaged in: space dominance, promising areas hitherto neglected by extreme weather such as the Arctic, or large maritime spaces such as the China Sea that provide access to the huge East Asian market.

 

In recent years, Western civil society has lost interest in the human, social and Christian values that for centuries have kept it alive through education, politics, national spirit, morality and the family sphere. The neglect of keeping them alive, and the retreat from their value and importance, are the cornerstone of future mistakes that will impede political, economic and social development in a cordial atmosphere of peace and security.

The experience accumulated in recent years has shown that trying to impose democracy against totalitarianism and communism by force of arms or serious pressure is a difficult and very costly act, requiring a great deal of time and great material and personal effort, but despite all this, the results often fall far short of the intended goal. This situation will undoubtedly influence the necessary changes in objectives or ways of achieving them in the future.

The cruelty present in Islam's wars shows that they are wars for the imposition of their own version of the same religion or to fight the apostate, and that the various strands of jihadism clash for reasons of succession, selfishness, hegemony, territorial expansion, prevalence or mandate, and degree of visibility or expansion in the Muslim community. Nevertheless, the branches maintain a series of common factors such as following and imposing the Sharia or Islamic Law, the expansion of Jihad or Holy War against the enemies of Islam, the recovery of lost territories and, above all, their inexhaustible desire to kill anyone who opposes their way. These situations are aggravated by the unstoppable expansion of the religious-cultural movement in most continents.

It is very likely that Afghanistan will become the focus and refuge of most of the jihadist movements because there is no government there to fight them openly or with sufficient capacity. Potential clashes between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda together against the various Islamic State franchises may help clarify the future religious and terrorist environment. On the other hand, the foreseeable massive diaspora of Afghans fearing Taliban reprisals may again be another source of problems in gaining admission to a number of countries and, in turn, a carrier of disguised terrorists in their midst.

 

Nuclear weapons as an element of threat, defence and deterrence are still there, and all indications are that countries such as North Korea, Iran and possibly Saudi Arabia, if US support disappears from the Middle East, will seek to acquire them or increase their current capabilities in the short term.

After much dithering over the reality of climate change, there has been a global euphoria to sign up to the crazed implementation of strong measures on the uses of energy consumption to prevent its escalation. This has been done in a very hasty manner and without analysing the cost to citizens' pockets, especially after cutting coal or declaring themselves anti-nuclear in many countries. This cost, together with the possible disturbances in North Africa, Russia and Ukraine, where the gas that reaches Europe through its extremities is produced or passes through, will endanger the continuity of many governments in the near future

The Coronavirus pandemic and its consequences have shown that the world is not prepared for this type of major crisis; the true causes of its origin are still unknown (none of which can be completely ruled out); thousands of people continue to die every day; It has taken a long time to find an effective vaccine, which we now doubt in the face of the variants that are appearing; it is still unknown whether it should be annual, as with the flu, and by not taking it into consideration, the governability of many countries has been shaken and has even cost the chair to leaders who had it assured, such as Trump.

It has demonstrated a great international lack of solidarity, the poor countries have been abandoned with hardly any vaccines, while the rich countries are already planning to apply their third dose; for months it has constituted an exorbitant price war and speculation with the eastern markets and has made it clear that the world is not safe in terms of health, despite the international organisations in charge of health.

As a result of the dissatisfaction or rejection of the sometimes excessive measures adopted, a generalised atmosphere of dissatisfaction, denialism and protest has been generated in various countries on all continents, which, if well led by anti-system groups, are used for other purposes such as attacks or civil insurrection against authority.
 

In short, the Afghanistan and health crises have shown that they can have all sorts of unforeseeable consequences; that many of the world's most powerful countries, the vaunted IC and its Agencies, and not just the US, have been brought shamefully to their knees by their inability to respond to the wishes and whims of the jihadist terrorists; after twenty costly and painful years, hastily and without previous plans, thousands of previously used people and a country have been abandoned to their fate, which can lead to serious massacres, the main nest of world jihadism or lead to a bloody civil or zonal war to dominate it; that the methods used to implement democracy, must be redefined, totally changed or annulled; that the world is very disunited when it comes to international aid and that, in view of the US's mistakes, there is already more than one candidate to take over the role of world leader.