Straight to the mess
Today, globalisation and transversality mean that, in order not to be left behind, we all seek to know, express our opinions and understand everything. The fields of action, interest and information are increasingly necessary and open as a result of the fact that companies have become multi-business emporiums; thus, car manufacturers, in addition to manufacturing them, sell them, develop and assemble their components, insure them, repair them, finance their purchase and offer various types of after-sales or complementary services to their customers; insurance companies are no longer specialised in one or two facets of the sector as was their custom, they offer you all types of insurance, pension plans, investments and even how to obtain financing.
Another example of business transformation and expansion comes from the banks; there are no longer any that maintain a traditional banking policy. They sell you everything as in Amazon; they have become real insurance houses, real estate agencies and even by the growing need to protect their investments, in real Institutes of analysis and prospecting on potential conflicts of economic, political and social nature. Thus, Deutsche Bank has just published an interesting document in which it details the eight topics that, in its opinion, will define the path that leads us to the so-called "Age of Disorder"; topics that are summarised and interpreted in the following:
1.-The consequences of the constant and progressive deterioration of US-China relations and the possible reversal of unbridled globalisation.
2.-The end result of a decisive decade for Europe, a decade in which the Union needs to define and limit the extent to which it wishes to compete economically, politically or militarily with the major powers or Alliances and whether it will continue to be the faithful and submissive ally of the US and the United Kingdom in defence matters or will emancipate itself politically and militarily from one or both of them by creating a structure and sufficient capabilities to conduct its own foreign policy and security activities without supervision.
3.-The repercussions of all kinds that could lead to even greater debt than is currently the case, such as the use of much more expansive policies than has been the norm; this will undoubtedly cause more inflation and we will see whether some countries and even the EU itself can overcome this. Increasingly, central banks will be forced to put more money into circulation and into the pockets of citizens whose repayment is not guaranteed.
4.-The diatribe about what will be the trend or the possible best solution - inflation or deflation? Governments will find it difficult to maintain their inflation targets as they put more money on the table. Excessive opening of the hand and/or delaying the time to return to spending restraint, can lead some countries into situations that are almost impossible to overcome in many years, which can drag others or their debt holders down.
5.-The impact of a widening of the expected inequalities between those with resources, those with no resources at all or those with insufficient resources. A certain and plausible fear of various types of violent outbreaks in societies in many countries as a reaction to a more than assured and growing impoverishment of the social situation and above all, when emergency aid becomes scarce or runs out and unemployment lists become ever larger.
6.-A widening of the intergenerational gap in political opinion as to what should be done, what should be voted on, which political parties deserve support and which should be rejected. The recent election results or results that are important for the nation's future, such as Brexit himself or the constant demonstrations of the yellow waistcoats in France and the massive and bloody demonstrations in Belarus and Hong Kong, among others, are clear and obvious proof of this.
7.-The consequences and problems arising from urgent collective decision making to put a definitive end to the climate debate. The climate issue may become mankind's biggest problem in the short to medium term and, despite the great efforts, it seems that not all countries, particularly those that pollute the atmosphere most, are not in favour of the task. This is a subject that has been delayed year after year, without taking into consideration that the delays and errors in this subject are difficult to recover because many times it is practically impossible to turn back and/or compensate for the damage already done.
8.- The constant diatribe that has existed since the very year 2000 about the need to continue advancing in the technological revolution or to remain immovable in a bubble. There is no doubt that the speed at which innovation in technology is taking place and expanding is changing many spheres of the present, possibly for the better; but it is also true that such changes, which are imposed on us by hard rubbing and without sufficient preparation, especially for the older generations, are not well received and can therefore also generate big losers.
This is a fairly complete and varied study which, although it covers many aspects, trends and fears that are true and even fundamental to the banking business, nevertheless leaves in the dark - perhaps intentionally - other very important issues which, despite being repeated on many occasions by various authors and analysts, including myself, do not seem to alert or concern much or anything to those who have in their hands to look after the planet, its inhabitants and direct the course of this and subsequent generations.
I therefore believe that a number of hot spots should be added, and on this occasion I will simply select and briefly mention some of them so as not to go into too much detail. Among them, I would like to highlight: the recently growing tension and border clashes between China and India (two countries with nuclear devices and armed to the teeth; the third and fourth in the world ranking); the effects that the results of the US presidential elections will inevitably have on the future of progress and order in the world, particularly in Iran, and its possibility of recovering all or part of its nuclear agreement-which is about to explode; the dangerous worsening of the attempts at confrontation in the Mediterranean between two traditional enemies-with implications for external countries such as France and the US-who have been living in a permanent state of confrontation for many years and yet, since NATO's creation, have been bound to be allies in the same organisation, which could lead to a situation that is difficult to overcome and even to its disappearance; the long, unresolved conflicts in countries that border the Mediterranean (Syria and Libya) and the constant rearmament of neighbouring countries in the same area (Morocco and Algeria) seeking to put an end to an old struggle for regional leadership, a potential territorial claim on land or in the sea that is home to huge energy resources; And their distancing from traditionally friendly countries or their metropolises (France and Spain) is giving way to other powers becoming their new-old allies and the most effective suppliers of weapons.
The international (mainly American) efforts to prevent China's expansion and friendly or conflictive relations with its neighbouring countries or in the South China Sea; the alarming silence on North Korea since the beginning of the COVID 19 pandemic and the "stand by" of its talks with the US regarding its nuclear programme; the worrying nature of its future as a country with such a capability and on the reactions to the dangers the Kim dynasty runs in order to perpetuate itself in power for reasons of health and descent.
Claims for rights of way and control of movements in the Arctic owing to climate change and the exploitation of the huge and very rich resources it has concealed for centuries, which until now, for obvious reasons, were totally unattainable.
The expansion and entrenchment of political extremism of both signs which once again endanger the cohesion and permanence of many of the states (even the most traditional ones); the growth of Jihadist religious extremisms which, far from having been eradicated in the relentless fight against the self-styled Islamic state or other marks of al-Qaeda, have led to their relocation, expansion and entrenchment on Asian or African soil, the latter being the case, previously and conveniently watered down by the weakness of their leaders or scourged by the plundering resulting from their tremendous corruption, the continuous revolts, ethnic enmities and the abandonment of the International Community (IC), despite the major investments made in the territory by the major powers such as China, Russia, to a lesser extent the USA and some of its old metropolises. Investments, which are more concerned with short and medium-term business and investment than with the search for a regenerative effect on a large area which has impressive economic, industrial, mining and commercial potential.
Not to mention the still many and ferocious convulsive movements in Latin America as a result of highly corrupt governments or dictatorial and Bolivarian influence that are leading many of those countries, which should be immensely rich, to increasingly chronic, greater ruin and a constant attack or trampling on human rights. These situations give rise to major social differences, exodus of millions of people and famine, which the aforementioned IC observes from the hands of the UN, the US and the EU in silence, although it turns its eyes away almost immediately, without taking - perhaps because it is incapable of or out of reach - decisive decisions that could solve these serious and entrenched problems.
I have left for the end of this story the many, perhaps too many, characters or dictators full of pure egocentrism who, ignoring history and its consequences, seek in one way or another to recover old glories experienced centuries ago by empires that preceded them. I am clearly referring, apart from the many scenes that Trump has given us, to Putin, Xi Jimping, Kim Yong-un, Erdogan and Mohamed bin Salman; to which we should add other little fish such as those that dominate countries like Belarus, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Mali, Kenya, northeast Nigeria, southern Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burkina Faso and Chad; In addition, Latin American countries which, for various reasons, are involved in conflicts of varying natures, such as Guatemala, El Salvador, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile and Honduras, all in an area that is not by chance classified as the most violent region in the world and over which Russia and China are exerting much more influence and control to the detriment of American patronage.
Too many countries in the hands of obscure or abject figures appearing, flourishing and reasserting themselves - some even seeking to eternalize themselves at the helm of their governments or states - taking advantage of times when there is a real lack of global leadership, when the main organisations behind the IC are not at their best and when the status of most leaders in other countries is too low, too weak or too non-existent to tackle serious political, economic and health crises together or separately.
The conclusion to this brief review is that the so-called disorder is not unique, it is widespread; today, and to our dismay, it can be said that this evil has already reached the format of a typical pandemic. It cannot be focused on one area or on a few specific countries that are trying to show their muscle or pride in pursuit of international prestige or reduced area leadership.
Widespread disorders, potentially large and very serious conflicts or any kind of possible confrontations are and will be increasingly widespread and can easily arise anywhere. Some are well interconnected and like explosives can act out of sympathy for nothing that one starts. Many have significant economic and military backing. They come from countries in the hands of euphoric egomaniacs and very ambitious characters who, with various formulas, are trying to perpetuate themselves in power or seal strong alliances that will make it easier for them to achieve their great objectives, and will therefore be difficult to defeat and eradicate.