The Arab-Islamic world and its relations with the West

Regardless of the fact that Spain has been the victim of one of the greatest felonies it has ever suffered, if not the greatest. Something I hope to write about and denounce at length soon, and that, personally, I have recently had to deal with the greatest loss a married man can have in his life, today I would like to present a totally unrelated subject that has been on my mind and in my computer for some time.    

Fortunately or unfortunately for one or the other, the hard and most important core of Arabs and Islamists is concentrated in the region known as the Middle East or Near East. A region, once a desert wasteland and quasi-sterile, and today full of possibilities after the world's largest oil and gas reserves known to date have been found in its confines. 

A mountainous, extremely hot and largely deserted territory that, before the aforementioned appearance, was not an object of desire or covetousness on the part of the Western colonising powers, except for that, very much in vogue in former times, of adding square metres to their vast empires, which they could hardly really attend to with the resources and means of the time; especially if these were almost or totally wasteland.  

A hostile terrain in itself, to which, in addition, it was and must be added that it is a veritable hornet's nest in ferment, a place where quarrels over race, religion, neighbourliness or the mere imposition of unwanted neighbours, such as Israel, make coexistence or peace practically impossible, nor to find a lasting and firm common position on economic and industrial aspects that would open a path towards a prosperous socio-cultural future. 

For decades, wars, intrigues, attacks and multiple betrayals have been the order of the day. Conflicts in the region are increasing in number and intensity. On the other hand, they are perennial, deep-rooted and so fratricidal that they lead them to sacrifice entire peoples for any cause inconceivable to an outsider, but which, in their eyes or beliefs, is largely or wholly justified. 

Once the manna of oil and its derivatives was gushing everywhere in this world of constant and long wars between brothers or neighbours, the West quickly found its place to do dirty business with them by imposing changes in their lifestyles and customs, training their armed forces and selling modern weaponry first and then technology so that they themselves could develop them under their patent or special support, in exchange for various types of energy concessions and very profitable contracts for the foreigner.  

In the field of self-interested patronage, dual command or simply disguised tutelage - after the end of World War II - it was the United States that was the first to see and use unabashedly the possibilities of business and influence over a very rich area almost in perpetuity, once it was proven that it played no role in the shameful partition of such vast territories known until then as the Ottoman Middle East; partition which was secretly carried out by two hired assassins, when with Russia's consent, the Frenchman François Georges-Picot and the Briton Mark Sykes negotiated the now famous Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916). 

This agreement was not only a simple division of wasteland and almost uninhabited territories, but a de facto partition and abrupt separation of peoples, races, religions and customs; a partition and separation that continues to drag on, or has caused most of the conflicts in the area ever since.   

Thus, the US has not only played the role of covert exploiter as long as it needed the oil produced there, but also of patronage and total influence, forcing a change in its customs and habits in countries that did not support it, such as Iran itself, which led to the 1979 revolution with the overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahleví and the restoration of the Republic, to the radical change of ways that brought about and since then has made it an eternal and irreconcilable enemy of the Americans and all those who dance to its tune. 

Despite this setback, the US has continued to maintain its actions in a wide area of influence in the region, leading it to invade Iraq in defence of Kuwait and mainly in all kinds of support for Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, with which it maintains unbreakable ties, as can be seen in each and every one of the conflicts in which any, several or all of the above-mentioned countries are involved. 

Russia, for its part, has not lagged behind in seeking its areas of influence, business and expansion either, and thus set its sights and efforts on Syria and its tyrannical ruling dynasties, which, if they are still standing, it is only thanks to Russia's unwavering support in exchange for allowing them to establish themselves in strategic places and ports, which gives them good cover for their deployments, mainly naval, in the Mediterranean.   

It was under Trump's presidency when, in view of America's decreasing and almost non-existent dependence or need for Middle Eastern oil and, fundamentally, because of the cost of the aforementioned support in terms of investment, military deployments and other economic or commercial actions, the US began to gather sails and -as has happened in Afghanistan- large areas and governments of various kinds have been left to their own devices, with the result that, as a consequence, conflicts in the area have increased and conflicts in the Middle East have been on the rise, conflicts in the region have increased and, as usual, whenever one power abandons control or patronage of a state or region, another or others quickly tend to inherit that influence and, in this sense, we clearly see Russia trying to improve its constrained positions and also Erdogan, the Turkish president, who also does not rule out becoming a religious political leader by appearing and trying to influence in one way or another, like the parsley in all the sauces. 

Biden, who picked up the gauntlet of his predecessor in the policy of abandonment by consummating some very notable ones, seems to be forced to regain positions, at least for the moment, due to the present conflict between Israel and the important guerrillas of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon which, in the manner of a military pincer, have forced and are forcing Israel into a new and perhaps the most important conflict in its recent history.   

Guerrillas that no one doubts have been created, fed, trained and protected by Iran in order to maintain instability in Israel, its greatest enemy, and in search of a disproportionate reaction from the Israelis that would turn all or most of the Arab peoples in the area against it. It should never be forgotten that it is Iran that keeps alive its fervent and unwavering pledge to wipe Israel off the map as a people and a nation. 

Other Western actors such as France, Italy and the UK have not been able or have not known how to maintain their zones of action or influence, and some, such as France, have decided to seek lucrative profits in areas further south by entering Africa; an area that, by the way, has been getting very complicated for some years now, which is why it now seems determined to abandon them to their fate, as it lacks the military capacity required for such an undertaking.      

For their part, other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have been able to find in the use of their natural resources the source of diversifying their economies in the belief and conviction that oil, currently inexhaustible, will in the not too distant future have less of a market or appeal given the rapid changes towards other non-fossil fuel energy sources, and therefore cleaner and less polluting ones, which are gradually being introduced into the minds and economies of all countries, until their consumption is reduced to a minimum. 

With this panorama ahead of them, the openness of many of their inhabitants towards the West is growing by the minute, and although their interests outside the area were initially minimal, today they include many aspects of the industrial world, elite sport, the creation of green spaces, etc., as well as important architectural and infrastructural works in places of great importance, important architectural and infrastructure works in places where there was nothing but sand or seawater, the exploitation of all kinds of resources and, above all, the purchase of important companies, patents for means and machines with which they secure a place in development and the search for their own and others' comfort in the near future, which is becoming less and less distant.  

Despite the fact that the phobias are still greater and irreconcilable between them and the existence of a practically common enemy (Israel), which they have fought and besieged on several occasions over the last sixty years, both individually and collectively, it is religion and their differing interpretation of the Quran (Shi'a and Sunni), coupled with the problematic issue of location or free access to holy sites on their obligatory pilgrimage - at least once in their lifetime - that most leads to their exacerbated estrangement. 

Finding a way to harm their uncomfortable or unredeemed neighbours is the prevailing norm in a part of the world that spends vast amounts of money to fight or threaten directly or, as already mentioned, to create, feed, maintain and train thousands of terrorists concentrated in a few, but compact and beastly terrorist groups, who are so extreme that they do not mind sacrificing whatever is necessary to harm anyone who annoys or might interfere with them in the future.  

In short, I believe that despite the fact that their conflicts are not only continuing, but are increasing in volume and intensity, commercial, industrial, political and social relations between the Middle East and the West will increasingly change direction and there will be a greater and greater search for aspects and facets of investment or business coming from them towards us, than the other way around, as has traditionally been the case.  

In the chapter on intermediaries we see that China, for the first time, is making a strong appearance in this field and place of action. There are several reasons for this and they mainly point to the fact that Xi Jinping wants to play a more prominent role in the pacification of international conflicts, wants to appear as a man of peace alongside Biden, despite the big and hot problems it has on its borders and its unstoppable expansion in the South China Sea, and perhaps also as a way of protecting its renewed Silk Road. 

An emerging and powerful protagonism that may be one more reason why Turkey, Jordan and Qatar have recently changed the intensity and even the direction of their peacekeeping support in this conflict.     

It is necessary to stress once again that future clashes or real conflicts are not likely to decrease in number or intensity; on the contrary, they will tend to increase in both aspects and, therefore, the area will be much more conflictive, especially when Iran is officially admitted by the International Community as a nuclear power -it is already so de facto due to US abandonment, neglect or hidden interests-, which will undoubtedly force Iran to take on the role of a nuclear power, which will undoubtedly force Israel to increase its nuclear arsenals and the capacity and precision of its current ones and, with a high degree of probability, some rich country such as Saudi Arabia and others, in view of the fact that its bitter enemy Iran is ahead in offensive matters of this magnitude, will be encouraged to join and jump on the bandwagon, so that the area will be a hotbed of nuclear devices in the hands of lunatics, inept or irreconcilable enemies.