Three hundred days were not enough

After three hundred days, all the credulous and incredulous have confirmed that it has been more than enough time to end, in one way or another, a conflict and a very bloody war, no matter how much the dictator Putin, in the purest and best style of Pedro Sánchez, insists on labelling it with epithets and hollow words, with which, in an attempt to deceive the less educated, he hides the true scope and misery of an expansionist conflict carried out without prior warning, declaration of war, motive or any apparent compelling reason.

As soon as the conflict broke out, the many analysts who devote ourselves to trying to decipher the world's conflicts and their consequences, whether for pleasure or as a livelihood, were divided into two camps. Some, the vast majority, thought that the poor and rather unprotected Ukraine would not resist the onslaught of a powerful Russian military machine for more than a few weeks and that soon its president, a former buffoon, would kneel before the all-powerful Putin to beg for clemency or disappear one night in a secret plane loaded with family, friends and the largest possible number of millions of dollars, to settle in a paradisiacal place, far from the noise and far from Ukraine. 

The rest of us soon began to question the effectiveness of the Russian war machine, its doctrine, logistics and the manoeuvrability of a large but poorly led, poorly trained, poorly armed army that lacked morale and the will to win.

It was thought that the biggest obstacle was the past winter, which was still leaving its traces in the muddy terrain, and that this was why the long, heavy columns of obsolete armoured vehicles and battleships and the endless Russian logistical queues repeatedly fell into natural traps that were difficult and sometimes even impossible to avoid. But come spring and then summer, the roads dried up and the war has been lurching along with volatile, intermittent, mostly unserious and mainly US-based aid that has made it very difficult for the Russians to achieve their objectives. 

Putin and his generals have been forced to change strategy and manoeuvre several times; casualties in personnel and war materiel have been tremendous on both sides, but I dare say more so on the Russian side. Retaliation against civilian targets and individuals, as well as potentially dangerous flashpoints such as several nuclear power plants, have endangered a new global atomic or nuclear crisis of immeasurable proportions.

Russia's 'magnificent arsenal' of missiles has proved to be nothing of the sort; they have soon had to make use of certain types of missiles that are obsolete or unsuitable for the missions they were tasked with or intended to carry out and have had to rely on huge quantities of such devices and unmanned Iranian-made unmanned devices. This has also clearly revealed that, as some of us have been claiming in vain, Iran has been deceiving the international community for many years and that its capabilities in research, development and production of sophisticated and accurate means of warfare, which have nothing to envy to other similar means manufactured in other 'officially' more advanced parts of the world, are great and effective.

On the other hand, the unmentionable 'aid from Europe' has been derisory at many times and in many respects; our seriousness in dealing with the energy deal with Russia is despicable and highly reprehensible, and the fear of a cold winter, which has just begun, is more important than witnessing reprisals and massacres against the civilian population of a neighbouring country and its basic energy facilities with which to keep warm in the coming months. 

The media in particular, and society in general, have once again demonstrated their inexhaustible capacity to forget and let the weak and suffering fall by the wayside. We take great interest, as always, in the early days of an international conflict or crisis in which the civilian population suffers. The chains of volunteers, of anonymous heroes, of donations - of which it is never clear where they are going - multiply everywhere, even in the street, petition tables are set up on every street corner and the number of families willing to go and collect or take in refugees is very large.

Suddenly, in less than half a year, and even though the conflict has intensified or increased in intensity or extent, almost in unison or on someone's orders, all the media spotlights go out and with them, the spontaneous and generous demonstrations of people of good will. The donations stop; the once beloved refugees are now a nuisance and soon we want them to go home or elsewhere, who cares, but we want them to leave us alone. In fact, many of those young and attractive women who were rescued were actually rescued to fill with impunity the media advertisements and brothels dedicated to sex with young and attractive flesh at low prices. 

Last but not least, the donations and support for means, training and all kinds of war material or war equipment are gradually diminishing and disappearing. This conflict is no longer even used as an excuse to blame the majority of European countries for all the ills that burden us, when in reality they are the cause and effect of the bad administration of the sorcerer's apprentices, who make fools of us every time there is an election and continue to deceive us when another election period approaches.

Many are the politicians who have proved their worthlessness; others, like Zelenski - who nobody gave a cent of credit to - have demonstrated their seriousness, commitment and their ability to stand behind an oppressed people, attacked and belittled even by many of their compatriots who had easily sold out to the siren songs of a narcissistic egomaniac like Putin with illusions of grandeur and intentions of recovering the splendour of the old Russia of the Tsars or of the Soviet Union. 

We have witnessed periods of improvement and momentum on both sides; stages of apparent truce, which have basically appeared and been used, to regain strength, reorganise and change targets and fronts of attack. Putin is dedicated to making those who criticise him internally 'disappear' and Zelenski, apart from establishing himself as a statesman with a firm hand, has enormously increased his personal prestige internally and internationally by obtaining most of the support thanks to his video or live interventions before most of the world's most important legislative chambers.

Three hundred days have shown many things, good and bad, but above all that the famous 'blitzkrieg' - as many have been quick to christen it - has become a 'war of attrition and resistance' with an uncertain outcome for Ukraine as long as the US does not ease up on its direct and indirect aid and pressure.

The downside of all this is that, like diseases and pandemics, the year 2023 will dawn with several potential or looming conflicts; some of them of great importance, such as China-Taiwan, Serbia-Kosovo, Iran-Israel and China-India; some already entrenched for many years and others that were falsely closed due to the US rush to get out of conflicts in which it plays a very important role or has been the main actor.

If any of them take shape or take effect, it is very possible that Uncle Sam will be forced to focus his support and interests on it and I fear that, in the end, the big fish, for this reason and supported by the weakness of the EU, will eat the little guy who depends only on the, for the moment, free aid that comes to him to be able to fight and keep a pesky Putin who does nothing but mess things up.