The Ukraine conflict, first lessons learned

Anyone who thinks that the lessons learned from a crisis or conflict of any kind, even a military one, should be drawn up and studied once the phenomenon has ended is half wrong.

Any conflict or crisis, from the very beginning, begins to sprout or be based on a series of circumstances, convictions or principles that, even without knowing it, are the origin and raison d'être of the conflict, points that are best not left forgotten.

It can be said that in the case of the conflict in Ukraine, as in all conflicts, the full truth does not lie with any of the sides or actors that directly or indirectly intervene or influence it. 

It is a conflict full of biased, self-interested or created information to justify the positions of all actors. The opposite is also true: disinformation or, in other words, not telling the whole truth, except that which is of interest.

The International Community (IC) has shown itself to be useless or dejected and even surrendered, depending on the case, due to various factors such as major economic issues; impotence or real inability to enter into a major conflict; lack of leadership at the global and regional level; spurious interests of many of the nations on the board and, above all, the obsolescence and inoperativeness of the international organisations that are supposed to be dedicated to security and conflict control.  

The UN has shown itself to be totally inoperative given that, by definition and organisation, both Russia and China maintain their veto power in the UN Security Council and, in this case, both support each other, albeit with abstention, by not biting each other. The General Assembly has shown that no matter how urgently it meets and how overwhelmingly and convincingly it votes, its solemn declarations are worthless, as are any of its efforts.

NATO, forced by the United States or by the widespread fear of most allies, has shown incredible weakness and has become a factory of excuses of little or no conviction; first, by refusing to fight on non-NATO territory or, second, by failing to set up a no-fly zone under its control and responsibility. Especially when both or either of these things have occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans and Libya, for example; but it so happens that on those occasions it was not Russia that was being confronted. 

The height of the Alliance's ignominy and shamelessness is the refusal, after raising high hopes, to deliver a series of old and unreliable Polish aircraft to bases in Germany via the United States. This operation, by the way, was brought forward and thwarted, among other things, institutions and people, by unfortunate and premature declarations by Josep Borrell.  

The EU continues to demonstrate its incapacity in the field of foreign relations and security. An incapacity that has dragged on since its creation as a political and economic club and little more; where there is no single voice; where two countries fight for its leadership for national ends and where it is excessively dependent on Russian gas, as has just been officially recognised until at least 2027. 

It is the International Community itself that has indirectly intervened in this conflict, even "apparently", without realising that it was doing so in a decisive and serious way, because since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dismemberment of the USSR it has not stopped fomenting the spirit of revenge in Russia, after multiple and successive humiliations of the Russians.

Or, also, by launching false expectations among the Ukrainian population and leaders; expectations that now appear to be unfeasible with respect to their entry into NATO, the EU or that they would be able to count on their full support in the event of conflict. 

All of this has fostered national euphoria in the first days of the conflict, only to be followed in less than a week by a cold shower of water telling them that EU membership is not even possible, even if Zelenski asks for it on his knees as he has already done on several occasions.

And finally, but most importantly, the IC actually provides them with very little military aid, in dribs and drabs, insufficient to fuel these kinds of defensive battles and, to top it all off, it is announced with such fanfare that it has ended up being the main target for Russian troops to beat.

The scorched earth policy to which the attacking force has been forced after the initial failure due to an unfortunate analysis of almost all the factors involved in the decision (mission, terrain, enemy, own means and the prevailing environment), has resulted in great or total destruction that will force enormous losses and huge reconstruction plans, which are already beginning to be evaluated at many thousands of billions of dollars.

This abrasive and devastating destruction, despite the high national spirit prevailing among the Ukrainian population, has already led to almost three million refugees, who, although initially, as in Kosovo, wanted to remain close to their borders and homes in order to return soon after the fighting; As little is left standing, they will begin a diaspora, mainly throughout Europe; and we Europeans have already had bloody previous experience of what is happening to us with the refugees and the sudden change of attitude we suffered when we went from their great and disinterested initial support, warmth and welcome, to total detachment and oblivion, once the conflict had died down like the volcano on La Palma.  

The use and abuse of mercenary fighters on both sides is not good news, as these disorganised and bloodthirsty gangs move away from any kind of control and rationalisation of their actions. They leave infected residues on the ground that are difficult to eradicate and create numerous gangs, almost armies, of warlords ready to fight ferociously without policy, roots or conviction.  

News of chemical and biological weapons on Ukrainian soil should not be underestimated because, during the USSR, Ukraine hosted large numbers of all kinds of weapons of mass destruction and, when it declared independence, Russia collected the nuclear ones, but the two previous ones remained there in more than significant quantities. 

The conventions on these weapons, with American financial and physical support, were in charge of their transport, dismantling and/or destruction; but I have always sincerely and personally doubted that those operations, after many years and large sums of money, were finally completed one hundred percent. 

Danger that also carries over to the possible and very pernicious effects of missile warfare, repression and uncontrolled disbandment of critical personnel on the country's important nuclear power plants, especially Chernobyl.   

Cyber warfare and propaganda warfare is very effective in these conflicts, like CNN, where the whole world follows minute by minute and live, the evolution of the situation. 

Something that also happens with the so-called 'influencers', with their false, casual or striking appearance, as in the case of the pregnant woman leaving on a stretcher bleeding from a maternity hospital, allegedly bombed by the Russians. Real or coincidental, she was one of those. 

The consequences of such conflicts on the local, regional and global economy are tremendous, mainly because the countries involved are considered to be two of the main producers of absolutely necessary goods for Europe and the world. 

However, in this respect, we must not be tempted, as is already the case, to lump together the embarrassments caused by mismanagement prior to the conflict. This, in addition to being an unforgivable boon for wasteful countries or bad administrators, produces a sense of impunity and false peace of mind, in the belief that others will come along and fix for free what has been caused by our bad administrators.  

In future editions, which there will necessarily be on this subject, and so as not to unnecessarily lengthen today's story, some effort and exclusivity will be devoted to the enumeration and brief analysis of the lessons learned from the military actions of both sides.  

However, whatever the final solution to this conflict, which has been reached without even a declaration of war, it is safe to say that Putin has installed fear in the world in general and in Europe, especially in some of its neighbouring countries such as Sweden - which has already raised its white flag - in particular, and is thus achieving some of his initial objectives, and some more are already in the offing.

Despite its major strategic and tactical errors, which will be described in other chapters on the subject, geopolitically, it had the general environment well studied in order to be right about the maximum moment of international weakness to attack with certain guarantees of impunity and what kind of final objectives it could set for itself.