Iran after the war: repression deepens as the economy collapses
- Executions: silencing dissent through terror
- A North Korea-style lockdown
- Economic ruin and the bread riots
- The cost of war
- A regime in crisis, a society under siege
The regime has resorted to brutal repressive measures across the country to maintain control. Political executions, mass arrests, surveillance and attacks on ethnic and social minorities have intensified, while the population faces rampant inflation, catastrophic bread shortages and widespread labour strikes. This convergence of repression and economic despair paints a grim picture of life in Iran in mid-2025.
Executions: silencing dissent through terror
On 13 July 2025, the Iranian regime sentenced three political prisoners — Farshad Etemadi-Far, Masoud Jamei and Alireza Mardasi — to double execution and one year in prison after two years of torture and solitary confinement. Two others, Saman and Davood Hormat-Nejad, were sentenced to 12 and 15 years in prison, respectively. These verdicts were handed down by Branch 1 of the Ahvaz Revolutionary Court on charges including “enmity against God” and alleged affiliation with the main opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI or MEK). One of those convicted, Masoud Jamei, is battling stomach cancer, liver disease and severe infections.
This trial is emblematic of a broader post-war pattern. In the days following the ceasefire, the authorities launched what international observers have called a “purge”, reminiscent of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners. Speedy executions, often based on charges of spying for Israel, are now routine, and human rights groups report that death sentences are being handed down after rushed trials without due process.
A North Korea-style lockdown
After the ceasefire, the Iranian regime shifted its focus inward. Since 26 June, between 700 and 1,000 civilians have been arrested on vague charges such as ‘propaganda’ or links to foreign powers. Entire groups – activists, students, trade unionists, ethnic minorities – have been swept up in this wave. In Rasht, seven people were transferred to Lakan prison without formal charges. In Rojhilat (Iranian Kurdistan), Kurdish parties report more than 150 arrests. Other minorities, such as Ahwazi Arabs and Azerbaijanis, have also been targeted.
The regime has paralysed digital communication through internet blackouts and disabled GPS systems in major cities. Surveillance has increased dramatically, with mobile phones being searched at checkpoints and social media activity used as evidence of “treason”.
Perhaps most astonishing is the regime's campaign of mass deportations. More than 600,000 Afghan migrants have been expelled since the war, and some estimates suggest that the final tally by 2025 could exceed one million. Iranian state media has stoked xenophobic sentiment to divert domestic anger, and children account for nearly a quarter of those deported.
Economic ruin and the bread riots
Parallel to this political repression, Iran's economy is in free fall. The war accelerated a crisis that had been brewing for decades. Key infrastructure, oil fields and military assets were destroyed or severely damaged by Israeli attacks. Oil exports fell by 94% during the conflict, costing Tehran approximately $1.4 billion in lost revenue. Iran's GDP has declined from $401 billion in 2024 to an estimated $341 billion this year, while inflation now exceeds 43%.
Few symbols illustrate the collapse more vividly than bread. Between February and June, the price of industrial bread rose by 84%. A simple baguette has more than doubled in price. Since the war, traditional bread has become almost inaccessible to many Iranians, with rationing imposed in provinces such as Gilan and Kermanshah and long queues snaking around bakeries. Desperate, some families have crossed into Iraq to buy bread.
The causes are multiple: the regime's chaotic ‘Nanino’ digital bread system delayed payments to bakers; widespread power cuts destroyed dough stocks; and war-related damage to infrastructure disrupted flour deliveries. Bakers across Iran, in Isfahan, Mashhad, Kerman, Shahin Shahr and elsewhere, went on strike in May and June, protesting the regime's broken promises and harsh working conditions. In Saqqez, security forces arrested the leader of the local bakers' union and ten others during a city-wide strike. In response, bakers returned state-owned equipment en masse, indicating a total collapse in parts of the food supply chain.
The cost of war
Beyond the visible repression and economic hardship, the war left Iran militarily exposed and financially depleted. The regime launched 591 ballistic missiles during the conflict, spending some $4.7 billion, funds desperately needed for food and medicine. However, this military display failed to deter dissent. Rather than mobilising public support, it deepened the chasm between the regime and society.
In Tehran, the stock market lost 600 billion tomans in one day after the ceasefire. Inflation has rendered wages meaningless. The already weak rial has plummeted beyond the psychological threshold of 1 million to the dollar. Poverty has skyrocketed: nearly a third of Iranians—more than 32 million people—live below the poverty line. Basic foodstuffs such as bread and meat are now beyond the reach of many families.
Meanwhile, power cuts have paralysed daily life. Banking services were disrupted, and some bakeries were unable to accept card payments, triggering panic buying. Labour strikes, especially in the public and transport sectors, are on the rise. Disillusionment is spreading rapidly, especially among Iran's once-buoyant middle class.
A regime in crisis, a society under siege
The Iranian regime's post-war trajectory reflects a clear calculation: it is incapable of governing through legitimacy or prosperity, so it resorts to fear. The state's repressive machinery has been cranked up to full speed, hoping to extinguish any spark of dissent. However, the regime's brutal response to strikes, political dissent and minority grievances reveals not confidence, but fragility.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has called for immediate international action to save the lives of those sentenced to death and ensure the release of all political prisoners. The UN Security Council, the EU and international human rights bodies must respond to this call with urgency. The world's silence would amount to complicity in the tragedy unfolding.