The impact of the fall of Bashar Al-Assad on Iran and its people
- The psychological impact on the Iranian people
- A catalyst for Iran's opposition
- The global context and the vulnerability of the Iranian regime
- Conclusion: the winds of change in Iran
As a key partner in its proxy wars, the Assad regime facilitated Iranian control over Lebanon through Hezbollah and provided a strategic corridor for Iranian forces to Iraq, Syria and other territories, connecting Tehran to Beirut.
However, the recent collapse of the al-Assad regime after a swift and unexpected military defeat in 11 days represents a devastating blow to Iran, both strategically and psychologically.
The psychological impact on the Iranian people
The fall of the Assad regime has had a profound impact on the Iranian people, especially those who have suffered under the repressive theocracy of the mullahs. For years, the Iranian regime has promoted a narrative of invulnerability and regional hegemony, built in part on its alliance with Assad. Seeing the collapse of such a close partner directly challenges this narrative and reinforces the perception that even the most entrenched dictatorships can falter and fall.
For ordinary Iranians, this represents not only the fall of a foreign dictator, but also a symbolic lesson: change is possible. The defeat of a regime backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and a vast network of militias shows that even seemingly impenetrable authoritarian structures are vulnerable. This fuels hope among a people who, for decades, have faced repression, economic hardship and a hostile political environment.
A catalyst for Iran's opposition
The Iranian people and their organised opposition feel emboldened by the fall of Assad. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, has long argued that the Iranian regime's days are numbered, despite its massive military and security apparatus. The rapid collapse of the Assad regime offers the Iranian people, especially the NCRI's supporters, tangible proof that the mullahs' regime is not as powerful as it seems.
The NCRI's vision for Iran is not just a theoretical ideal. It is backed by a well-organised resistance movement within the country, led by the People's Mujahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK), which has played a crucial role in exposing the regime's corruption, including its nuclear ambitions, and in organising protests and uprisings across Iran. WIPO resistance units operating covertly inside Iran have become an increasingly powerful force in challenging the regime's security apparatus, particularly the IRGC.
Assad's fall is not only a blow to Iran's regional ambitions, but also a testament to the fragility of the Iranian regime itself. There is a deep sense in the opposition that if Assad, a once powerful leader backed by Iran, could collapse so quickly, so could the Iranian regime. This belief has the potential to galvanise efforts inside Iran and fuel a new sense of determination to topple the mullahs.
For the Iranian people, especially those suffering from the harsh economic conditions imposed by both domestic mismanagement and international sanctions, Assad's fall offers a powerful symbolic victory. It shows that even deeply entrenched regimes are vulnerable and that the current regime in Tehran - whose policies have destabilised much of the Middle East - can be toppled. The psychological impact on ordinary Iranians is considerable, as they see regime change as not only possible but imminent.
The global context and the vulnerability of the Iranian regime
For years, Iran has pursued a strategy of regional destabilisation, using its alliance with Assad, Hezbollah and various allies in Iraq and Yemen to extend its influence. The fall of Assad represents a significant break in this strategy, leading to a situation in which Iran's ability to project power in the region is now under increased scrutiny. For the Iranian people, this is another clear sign that their government is losing control, not only domestically but also internationally.
This growing vulnerability has generated growing opposition within Iran itself. The defeat of Assad's army, once considered by many analysts to be one of the most powerful forces in the region, demonstrates that even the most formidable armies can collapse under pressure. It is a lesson that resonates deeply with the Iranian people, who are witnessing an economic crisis, widespread protests and growing unrest in their own country. The mullahs' regime, once thought impregnable, now seems more vulnerable than ever.
Conclusion: the winds of change in Iran
For more than forty years, Iran has been under the yoke of a religious dictatorship that has inflicted immense suffering on its people and wreaked havoc across the Middle East. The mullahs' regime has suppressed freedoms, stifled dissent and maintained a climate of fear and repression.
But the winds of change are beginning to blow. The fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria, a key Iranian ally, and the growing strength of the Iranian resistance, indicate that the time for change is fast approaching.
The main Iranian opposition, led by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), is committed to the establishment of a free, democratic and secular republic. Maryam Rajavi's leadership is based on her Ten Point Plan for a Democratic Iran. The plan outlines key principles for a future Iran, including the abolition of the death penalty, equal rights for women, the separation of religion and state, and the establishment of a government that respects freedom of expression and religious tolerance. The plan also envisages a peaceful transition to democracy, with an interim government organising free elections within six months of the fall of the regime.
At a recent meeting in the European Parliament, Ms Rajavi reaffirmed the Resistance's unwavering commitment to freedom, gender equality and the separation of religion and state. This commitment is best summed up in her slogans, which have become a rallying cry for the Resistance: ‘No compulsory hijab, no compulsory religion and no compulsory government’.
It is time for the international community to support them and help bring about the regime change that Iran so desperately needs.