Gustavo de Arístegui: Geopolitical Analysis January 16
- 1. INTRODUCTION
- II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS
- III. MEDIA RACK
- IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT
- V. EDITORIAL COMMENT
1. INTRODUCTION
In the last 24 hours, Trump's foreign policy has combined his usual heavy-handed approach with surgical prudence: he is holding back on a direct attack on Iran for the moment, strengthening the Arctic flank against Russia and China, and turning María Corina Machado's visit into a message to narco-Chavismo and its international allies that impunity is over. The war in Ukraine is intensifying with a Russian offensive against energy infrastructure in the midst of an extreme cold snap, while Kiev is stepping up its precision strikes against Russian strategic targets. At the same time, the Arctic is consolidating its position as a new theater of competition between NATO and the Russian-Chinese tandem, and the global economy continues to navigate between energy volatility, trade tensions with China, and the need to rearm the liberal order.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][1]
The day leaves the international stage marked by four main vectors: Trump's calculated containment of Iran, the war of extreme attrition in Ukraine, the Arctic's leap to the center of the strategic dispute, and the opening of the “political phase” of post-Maduro Venezuela, symbolized by María Corina Machado's visit to the White House. All of this is set against a backdrop of greater Chinese assertiveness, the recomposition of the authoritarian axis (Russia-China-Iran), and a slow but real realization in the Atlantic bloc that liberal democracy is no longer the “natural state” of the world, but a model that must be actively defended. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]
II. MOST IMPORTANT NEWS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS
1. Trump puts the brakes on a new direct attack on Iran, for now
Facts
- The Iranian envoy to a European country has stated that Trump sent Tehran the message that he “has no intention of attacking Iran,” provided that the regime exercises restraint and avoids an open massacre of protesters.[6][8]
- The White House, through its spokesperson, has stated that Iran “has halted” around 800 planned executions, in the context of a wave of protests that has shaken the regime in recent weeks, although Tehran denies having had plans for mass executions. [8][12][3]
- The United States has tightened selective sanctions, including new Iranian officials linked to the repression, and has warned that any killing of protesters would cross a red line that could reopen the military option.[12][8]
Implications
- Washington's message is twofold: the military option remains on the table, but the main short-term objective is to erode the regime from within, weakening its legitimacy and repressive capacity through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and pressure on its financial networks.[8] [12]
- For the Iranian axis—Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, militias in Iraq and Syria—this phase means less room for military adventures that force Tehran to expose itself; at the same time, it may push them to desperate actions to prove that they are still relevant on the regional stage.[13][8]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1 (base): maintaining maximum non-military pressure, with more sanctions, covert operations, cyberattacks, and political support for protests, seeking to wear down the regime without triggering open war.[12][8]
- Scenario 2 (risk): a lethal provocation—an attack with many casualties against US or allied interests—forces Trump into a direct strike against Iranian military or nuclear assets, with a controlled but very dangerous regional escalation.[6][8][12]
2. Phase two of the Gaza plan and opportunity to disarm Hamas
Facts
- In Israel and Western diplomatic circles, there is discussion of the “second phase” of Washington's plan for Gaza:consolidating the ceasefire, moving towards the demilitarization of the enclave, and drastically reducing Hamas' military capabilities.[14][13]
- Several Arab countries, concerned about the internal erosion caused by the permanent exploitation of the Palestinian cause by Iran and its proxies, are discreetly pressuring Hamas to accept some form of gradual disarmament or enhanced international supervision.[13][14]
Implications
- If Iranian sponsorship is weakened by the internal crisis in Tehran, Hamas may become more isolated and vulnerable to joint pressure from Israel, the United States, and Arab partners, opening a narrow window for a reconfiguration of the Gaza government.[14][8][13]
- For Israel, the prospect of a demilitarized Gaza, with a robust security mechanism and Arab backing, would be a historic doctrinal shift: for the first time, the possibility of security without indefinite occupation is on the horizon, provided that disarmament is real and verifiable.[13][14]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: consolidation of a Palestinian local administration scheme supervised by an Arab-Western consortium, with a demilitarization timetable and security guarantees for Israel.[14]
- Scenario 2: Hamas resistance, internal sabotage, and reactivation of the Iranian axis if Tehran manages to regroup and once again uses Gaza as a platform for legitimization and regional pressure. [8][13][14]
3. War in Ukraine: Ukrainian drone offensive and energy emergency due to Russian attacks
Facts
- Ukraine has intensified drone and missile attacks on strategic infrastructure in Russian territory, including chemical and logistics facilities linked to Moscow's military capabilities.[15][16]
- In response, Russia has unleashed a new wave of massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, prompting President Zelensky to declare a state of emergency in the energy sector at a time when Kiev is experiencing temperatures close to -20°C.[4][5][7]
- In Kyiv, hundreds of residential buildings remain without heating or electricity days after the bombings, while emergency shelters with generators and basic services are being set up to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the midst of a cold snap.[5][7][4]
Implications
- The war is entering a phase of extreme attrition, where the ability to maintain the power grid and energy supply is becoming a decisive factor, both for the war effort and for the morale of the population.[7] [4][5][15]
- Moscow's message is brutal and transparent: use winter as a weapon, deliberately punishing civilians to force concessions and demonstrate that, despite sanctions, the Kremlin still has room to escalate vertically in the energy and military fields.[4][5][7]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: maintenance of a relatively static front with mutual attacks in depth, while Ukraine increases its dependence on Western aid for air defense, ammunition, and equipment for rapid infrastructure repair. [7][15][4]
- Scenario 2: If Russian strikes against the power grid cause a prolonged collapse, voices in Europe calling for a de facto “frozen peace” could grow louder, which would amount to rewarding Russian aggression and consolidating territorial gains obtained by force. [17][5][15]
4. The Arctic and Greenland become a new strategic red line
Facts
- Russia has announced that it will continue to strengthen its defense capabilities in the Arctic, explicitly citing tensions around Greenland as a pretext for further militarizing the region.[3]
- At the same time, NATO countries—including France—have begun to deploy troops and military assets (land, air, and naval) around Greenland and on key Arctic routes, emphasizing that Danish sovereignty is non-negotiable.[1][3]
- Moscow insists on coordinating its position with China and considers it “unacceptable” that Beijing's activities are being used as justification for Western military reinforcement in the area.[18][3]
Implications
- The Arctic is shifting from a peripheral space to a central front in strategic competition: maritime routes, energy resources, and the system of sensors and bases connecting North America and Europe are becoming pieces in a much clearer game between NATO and the Russian-Chinese axis.[1][3]
- Trump's policy—firm defense of US interests, but within the Atlantic umbrella—gives NATO room to regain strategic reflexes in an area that had been undervalued by European capitals for years. [3][1]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: controlled militarization, with a reinforced presence and regular exercises, but preserving channels of communication to avoid incidents and miscalculations. [1][3]
- Scenario 2: if China increases its “scientific” and economic presence under the Russian umbrella, the Arctic may move towards a kind of de facto bipolarization, with growing risks for Euro-Atlantic routes and the global strategic balance.[18][3][1]
5. China flexes its economic muscle and consolidates its global position
Facts
- Recent reports put China's trade surplus in 2025 at around an all-time high, driven by a strong export rebound in the last quarter of the year.[2] [19]
- Beijing continues to combine this external strength with an expansionist agenda in the South China Sea, infrastructure investments in Africa and Latin America, and a growing role in the BRICS Plus bloc.[20][21][2]
Implications
- China is sending the world the message that, despite its internal problems (demographics, debt, real estate bubble), it remains the world's factory and will use that position to deepen economic dependencies that then translate into political influence. [19][2]
- For Europe and the United States, the tension is evident: the need to reduce strategic vulnerabilities—especially in technology, critical supply chains, and raw materials—clashes with business interests that fear the costs of an orderly decoupling.[21][2][20]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: Selective decoupling in sensitive sectors, accompanied by regulated competition in the rest, seeking a balance between security and prosperity.[2][21]
- Scenario 2: If Chinese pressure on Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific increases, decoupling may accelerate abruptly and more traumatically, but also reducing Beijing's scope for trade blackmail. [20][21][2]
6. Venezuela after Maduro's capture: María Corina Machado's visit to the White House and dispute over the transition
Facts
- Nicolás Maduro has been captured and transferred to the United States to face drug trafficking charges, as part of an operation that has decapitated the regime but has not yet dismantled its mafia structure.[22] [23]
- In this context, María Corina Machado, leader of the Venezuelan opposition and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner for her defense of democracy in Venezuela, met with Donald Trump at the White House for a closed-door lunch.[10][24][25][26]
- Machado
“presented” Trump with her Nobel medal as a gesture of gratitude for the operation that ended Maduro's personal power, underscoring the role of the United States in the fight against the Chavista narco-dictatorship.[24][25][27]
- At the same time, the White House has confirmed that it is working with Delcy Rodríguez—presented as interim president—to close a first deal to sell Venezuelan oil to the United States valued at around $500 million, as part of a rapid stabilization plan. [11][28][22][3]
- Machado has taken advantage of her visit to meet with senators and congressmen from both parties in Washington, where she enjoys clearer support than in the administration itself and where many are wary of the “Madurismo without Maduro” project articulated around Rodríguez.[23][28][11][24]
Implications
- The gesture of awarding the Nobel Prize to Trump has enormous symbolic significance: it legitimizes the intervention that decapitated the regime as an act of justice against a narco-state allied with Russia and Iran, and dismantles the narrative of the left, which still talks about “sovereignty” to cover up mafia dictatorships.[27][22][23]
- The White House's operational preference for Delcy Rodríguez reveals the tension between the logic of security and oil—securing barrels and avoiding immediate chaos—and the democratic logic of supporting those who have risked their lives against Chavismo, such as Machado.[28][11][22] [23]
- For the democratic opposition, the visit to Washington is a double-edged sword: it reinforces Machado's international legitimacy, but it also highlights the internal rift between those who are committed to a clean break with the Chavista apparatus and those who are willing to make deals with part of that apparatus in exchange for stability.[11][23][28]
Prospects and scenarios
- Scenario 1: Authentic transition with opposition leadership. The US Congress and European allies make recognition and aid conditional on a roadmap that excludes the hard-line Chavista core, empowers democratic leaders such as Machado, and links oil revenues to profound reforms and a real fight against drug trafficking.[23][28]
- Scenario 2: Oil transaction with “Madurismo without Maduro.” The White House prioritizes barrels and containing chaos; Delcy Rodríguez consolidates herself as the “presentable” face of the old regime; mafia structures are recast, and Venezuela becomes a hybrid petro-state controlled from outside and captured from within.[22][28][11][23]
- Scenario 3: Blockade and fragmentation. If the struggle between Machado, Rodríguez, the military, and criminal networks becomes entrenched, the country could slide into de facto balkanization, forcing the United States and its allies to undertake a much more costly stabilization effort in the medium term.[22][23]
7. BRICS Plus flexes its military muscle and challenges the liberal order
Facts
- The BRICS Plus bloc is moving forward with the organization of joint military exercises, going beyond its initial role as an economic platform to explore hard power coordination.[21][2]
- Russia is using this framework to alleviate its international isolation, while China is using it as a showcase for an “alternative” model of governance to Western liberalism, which is particularly attractive to autocracies in the Global South.[2] [21]
Implications
- The message is unequivocal: the BRICS no longer want to be a mere economic forum, but a political and potentially military pole that erodes the norms and institutions of the liberal order built after 1945. [21][2]
- For Europe and the United States, this reinforces the urgency of revitalizing NATO, the EU, and the G7, combining hard and soft power against an authoritarian axis that perceives that time is on its side.[2][21]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: coordination limited by internal rivalries, asymmetries, and lack of strategic cohesion, preventing the bloc from becoming a monolithic bloc capable of replacing the G7.[21][2]
- Scenario 2: if the crisis of confidence in the liberal order worsens, BRICS Plus may consolidate itself as a reference point for anti-Western regimes, making the defense of liberal democracy more expensive.[2][21]
8. Frictions within NATO and the European front
Facts
- In Europe, tensions are growing over burden-sharing within NATO and the extent to which the EU should develop “strategic autonomy” that does not lead to duplication or a weakening of the transatlantic link.[3][1]
- Countries such as France, Germany, and the Nordic countries are strengthening their presence in the Arctic and the East, but defense spending figures continue to show a very strong dependence on the US umbrella.[29][1][3]
Implications
- The prolonged war in Ukraine and Russian threats are finally reopening the debate on the need for Europe to take its own defense seriously, abandoning rhetorical pacifism and the illusion that the liberal order will sustain itself.[17][3]
- For the Atlantic axis, the challenge is to strike a balance: strengthening US leadership while demanding that European capitals fulfill their spending and capability commitments.[1][3]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: Sustained increase in European spending, greater interoperability, and a more balanced burden-sharing under the NATO umbrella. [3][1]
- Scenario 2: if some governments opt for the populist shortcut of “cheap peace” with Russia, the Western front may crack, weakening Ukraine and reinforcing Moscow's aggressive calculations.[17][3]
9. Social and economic pressure on the Iranian regime
Facts
- Iran is experiencing a new wave of protests linked to repression, the economic crisis, and weariness with the regime's corruption; the international community is discussing new sanctions and pressure mechanisms.[12][8]
- The G7 has condemned the repression and warned of possible additional sanctions if Tehran persists in using violence against protesters.[8][12]
Implications
- The regime's legitimacy is increasingly precarious; a young, urban, and connected society no longer buys into the revolutionary discourse and perceives the ayatollahs as a parasitic oligarchy.[12][8]
- For the region and for Europe, an internally weakened Iran reduces—at least in the short term—the financing and coordination capacity of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria, although the regime will try to use the external crisis as an excuse to tighten its control.[13][8][12]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: Successful repression in the short term, with a regime that survives but is strategically weakened and increasingly isolated.
- Scenario 2: if international pressure and economic costs are well coordinated, a process of deeper political change may begin, provided that the West does not repeat the mistake of 2009, when it abandoned the protesters to their fate.[8][12]
10. Signs of turbulence in markets and energy
Facts
- The confluence of war in Ukraine, tensions in the Arctic, instability in the Middle East, and the uncertain transition in Venezuela keeps energy markets highly volatile.[9][30][4][3]
- Investors are closely scrutinizing the risks of supply disruptions, alternative routes, and strategic reserves, in a context where bloc politics and sanctions are affecting oil and gas flows. [30][9][3]
Implications
- Geoeconomics reminds us that there can be no security without energy and minimally reliable supply chains: sanctions and the defense of the liberal order come at a cost, but inaction in the face of aggressive regimes comes at an even greater cost in the medium term. [9][30][3]
- Governments that fail to explain this reality to their citizens leave room for left-wing and right-wing populism that promises “cheap energy and immediate peace” at the cost of surrendering energy and strategic sovereignty to Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran.[9][17]
Outlook and scenarios
- Scenario 1: orderly adaptation with diversification of suppliers, greater investment in critical infrastructure, and enhanced coordination between Atlantic allies and Asian partners. [30][9][3]
- Scenario 2: Successive poorly managed crises fueling social unrest and the erosion of democratic governments, opening the door to anti-system forces.[9][17]
III. MEDIA RACK
- Atlantic-liberal axis (NYT, Washington Post, FT, WSJ, The Economist, Politico, Reuters, AP, AFP, DPA, BBC, CNN, France Info):
- Coverage is dominated by the Ukraine-Iran-Venezuela triad, with a special focus on the Ukrainian energy emergency, Trump's signs of containment towards Iran, and the legal dimension of the intervention in Venezuela. [26][5][10][4][7][11][9][3]
- There is a certain tension between the moral narrative (human rights, international law) and the recognition—sometimes implicit—that force and deterrence remain indispensable tools against regimes such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.[31][26][2]
- Continental European press (Le Monde, Le Figaro, FAZ, Die Welt, Die Zeit, Corriere, Helsingin Sanomat, La Tribune de Genève):
- Great concern about the war in Ukraine, the escalation in the Arctic, and the impact of energy volatility on the cost of living, with an increasingly uncomfortable debate about European rearmament. [5][29][17][3]
- The Venezuela case is viewed with a mixture of relief at Maduro's downfall and suspicion of US intervention methods, but also with the awareness that the Chavista narco-state was already a transnational threat.[31][23]
- Israeli media (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Israel Hayom, Yedioth Ahronoth, ILTV, and others):
- Priority given to the Iran-Gaza-Lebanon triangle and the still narrow window of opportunity to disarm Hamas in a context of a weakened Iran and greater coordination with Washington and some Arab partners.[32][14][13][8]
- Arab world and regional media (Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya, Asharq al-Awsat, Jordanian and Gulf press):
- Ambivalent narrative: rhetorical solidarity with the Palestinians, criticism of certain Israeli excesses, but at the same time concern about Iranian expansionism and the risk of the region becoming a stage for endless proxy wars.[30][13][3]
- Moscow-Beijing axis (RT, TASS, China Daily, SCMP, related media):
- Standard message: denunciation of Western “hypocrisy,” defense of Russian militarization of the Arctic as a legitimate response to NATO, presentation of the intervention in Venezuela as a violation of international law, and promotion of BRICS as an alternative order. [11][20][22][3]
IV. RISK TRAFFIC LIGHT
- 🔴 Ukraine: war of attrition and energy emergency in the middle of winter
- The combination of systematic Russian attacks on the power grid, extreme temperatures, and limited repair capacity puts millions of Ukrainians in a critical situation and raises the risk that civilian attrition will weaken the home front.[15][4][5][7]
- 🔴 Venezuela: Maduro's capture, dispute over transition, and risk of mafia drift
- Maduro's departure creates a historic opportunity, but the Chavista apparatus and criminal networks remain embedded in the state; if the transition becomes a simple cosmetic operation around Delcy Rodríguez, the country could go from narco-dictatorship to narco-protectorate. [28][23][22][3]
- 🔴 Iran: protests, repression, and threat of regional escalation
- Trump's momentary restraint does not eliminate the risk of escalation if the regime decides to respond to internal pressure with massive violence or indirect attacks on US or Israeli interests through its proxies.[6][8][12]
- 🟡 Arctic-Greenland: growing militarization and NATO-Russia-China standoff
- Cross-deployments increase the chances of incidents and miscalculations; for now, the conflict is being fought in terms of presence and signaling, but the room for maneuver is narrowing. [1][3]
- 🟡 BRICS Plus and the authoritarian axis
- The incipient political and military coordination among the BRICS countries strengthens the authoritarian bloc but continues to be hampered by internal rivalries; the risk increases if the liberal order continues to show weakness and lack of self-confidence. [21][2]
- 🟢 Window for the gradual demilitarization of Gaza
- The relative weakening of Iran and the greater convergence between Israel, the United States, and certain Arab countries open up a limited but real opportunity to move toward a scenario in which Hamas loses its armed monopoly. [14][13][8]
- 🟢 Democratic reconfiguration in Venezuela (if well managed)
- If the US Congress and European allies make aid and recognition conditional on a genuine break with Chavismo and reinforce the democratic opposition, Venezuela could become a paradigmatic case of the dismantling of a narco-state with international support.[23][28]
V. EDITORIAL COMMENT
The map of these 24 hours shows that the world is no longer divided between “friendly globalization” and “diplomatic misunderstandings,” but between incompatible political models: liberal democracy—with all its imperfections—and a constellation of authoritarian, theocratic, or criminal regimes that share the same impulse: contempt for individual freedom and the absolutization of power. Russia, China, Iran, and Chavismo are different expressions of the same political pathology, which combines propaganda, massive corruption, and the instrumental use of violence to perpetuate itself. [3][12]
Trump, with all his rough edges, embodies a foreign policy that has understood something essential: appeasement and moralistic sentimentality are useless against these regimes; what is needed is an uncomfortable mix of force, realism, and ideological clarity. Tactical containment of Iran —avoiding open war while strangling the regime—firmness in the Arctic against the Russian-Chinese tandem, and the decision to remove Maduro from Miraflores are all part of the same logic: evil, when organized politically in the form of a narco-state or totalitarian theocracy, is not dissolved with communiqués, but confronted with power and robust alliances. [6][11][8]
The scene of María Corina Machado handing her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump at the White House is an amendment to two decades of Western complacency with Chavismo: it reminds us that true “sovereignty” is not that of the caudillo entrenched in a palace, but that of the free citizen and the clean vote. But it also sends an uncomfortable warning to Washington and Europe: it is not enough to decapitate a dictatorship if its mafia networks are left intact; replacing Maduro with a “Madurismo without Maduro” would betray the sacrifice of those who have suffered imprisonment, exile, and persecution for defending democracy. [10][24][27][23]
In Ukraine, Iran, the Arctic, and Gaza, the same fundamental battle is being fought: whether liberal democracies still have the courage to defend their principles or whether they resign themselves to managing their decline with euphemisms and good intentions. Defending the democratic mainstream—against childish wokism, against nihilistic populism, against cowardly relativism—is not a conservative gesture, but an act of historical responsibility. The Spanish transition, with all its nuances, remains an uncomfortable reminder that common sense, reconciliation, and political courage are more powerful than armchair revolutions: in the face of sorcerer's apprentices who play with identities, flags, and resentments, it is worth remembering that freedom is built with solid institutions, not slogans. And that, when the world hardens, lukewarmness is not neutrality: it is a form of early surrender.[4][5][7][3][8]
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[11] Trump accepts Nobel medal from Venezuelan opposition leader ... https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-meet-venezuelan-opposition-leader-machado-after-praising-its-government-2026-01-15/
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[25] Venezuela: Machado presents Trump her Nobel Peace Prize https://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-machado-presents-trump-her-nobel-peace-prize/a-75526772
[26] Venezuelan Opposition Leader Gives Trump Her Peace ... https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/15/us/trump-news
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