Qatar is self-entrapped
Qatar has learned how to stage appearances but has not yet mastered disappearing acts.
Israel will not accept a Turkish mediator who boycotts it economically and directs his media machine to insult it and condemn its crimes.
Halting trade between Turkey and Israel, and launching Iranian missiles and drones against Israeli targets appear at face value to be destined to ratchet up tensions in reaction to the Gaza war. But a more careful scrutiny of these two steps reveals instead an intent to stay away from the crisis, as much as possible.
Those who were directly involved in the conflict, mainly Hamas, or indirectly so, especially Qatar, have been tangled in the war’s consequences. Tehran and Ankara are trying at the same time to avoid being the target of blame despite years of involvement in mobilisation, propaganda and provision of arms and support for both Hamas and Qatar.
Take first the glaring example of Iran’s inconsequential launch of missiles and drones towards Israel. The Jewish state is not the type of country that forgoes retaliation. Revenge is part of its intimidation and deterrence doctrine. The attack against Israel failed, due to the huge difference in capabilities between sophisticated Western technology and Iran’s outdated military equipment and strategies.
The Iranian response was carried out with the use of weapons that are a combination of missile technologies dating back to the 1950s (modified versions of Scud missiles) and standard off-the-shelf drones. The most important characteristic of Iran’s tactics was the launch of drones in large numbers to overwhelm the enemy with slow but numerous moving targets. American and Western fighter planes shot down some of the most dangerous missiles, such as cruise missiles, while Israeli rockets of various types took care of the ballistic missiles and the drones.
Israel responded with a warning attack on Iran, and Tehran quickly drew the required lesson. The limited intent behind the attack was underlined by what Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a faithful gathering around him, including army and Revolutionary Guard generals, who sat at his feet seeking forgiveness for failing to inflict any significant damage on Israel.
Khamenei is a graduate of the Iran-Iraq war and familiar with Tehran’s drinking from the chalice of poison when accepting a ceasefire with Saddam’s Iraq. He knows very well that there are limits to everything. He reassured his generals, just as any coach of a minor team that what mattered is participation after being asked to play in a major football league. In this case only a token response was required of them, not the resulting failure or success.
Since the spiritual session between the Supreme Leader and his senior military disciples, Iran has disappeared from the scene.
Houthi missiles or drones are launched from time to time while Hezbollah occasionally reacts across the border with Israel when its party leaders are targeted in Lebanon. All attempts to retaliate for the Palestinians’ suffering in Gaza have stopped there. The search for the drones or missiles which the Popular Mobilisation Forces have bragged about launching towards Tel Aviv still goes on. There is no trace of the attack except in the statement issued by Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias. Like any professional magician, Iran was able to pull a disappearing act from the stage in front of hundreds of millions of cheering audiences. All is quiet on the Eastern Front.
The Turkish case is somewhat different. This is a country that still receives and fetes Hamas leaders in public. It is certain that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to substitute talk and media initiatives for any tangible action in support of the Palestinians in the face of the Israeli onslaught. The most brutal stage of Israel’s campaign of bombing and destruction, which has wiped out most of Gaza, is now over and there was no real Turkish reaction. What remains of Gaza is Rafah, an area that has fallen militarily but still stands politically because the United States has not granted Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu the green light to invade it. Now Turkey, that is, Erdogan, has decided to stop trading with Israel after the Jewish state achieved most of its military objectives in Gaza. The Turkish president has two faces, one for the Arab and Islamic world, which is usually dazzled by his mere words, and the other for the West, which pays less attention to talk than action. Taking that into consideration, Erdogan linked the resumption of trade between his country and Israel to the return of relief aid to the innocent, displaced and hungry Palestinians in Gaza. This opportunistic and feeble position aims to steer Turkey away from any role of substance, including mediation, which Qatar itself is also moving to abandon.
Israel will not accept a Turkish mediator who boycotts it economically and directs his media machine to insult it and condemn its crimes. Erdogan gave Israel the excuse to exclude him from any mediation, and gave the Arabs and Muslims, and most importantly the Islamists who back him, the political argument according to which he is imposing economic sanctions on Israel. Pro-Erdogan Islamists will soon be arguing that Turkey has boycotted Israel for the sake of the Palestinians. Details related to the timing (the halt of trade ties was decided only after long months of war) and the linkage he established between resumption of relations and the opening of the aid routes will be quickly forgotten. In the history of political Islam there is a lot of room for footnotes and end notes. Details have their place there, no matter how important they seem today.
Qatar remains stuck with Hamas. It cannot launch missiles or drones, and it cannot envisage a trade boycott with Israel nor can it impose sanctions on those who support it. Doha knows deep down that the phase of leniency towards it has ended and that the US administration is likely to keep its positions within the bounds of courtesy until the most important item in the ongoing negotiations, that is the return of Israeli detainees from the Gaza tunnels, materialises. Israel has another revenge to exact from the Qataris, other than its revenge over Hamas’ presence in Qatar. Many prominent figures with a lot of influence in the US Congress, do not mince their words about the need for retribution on Qatar, no matter how much it tries to justify its hosting of Hamas by saying it all was aimed at influencing the militant group’s behaviour. According to Israeli and US points of views, truly influencing Hamas’ behaviour should have meant preventing an attack such as the October 7th attack, named “Al-Aqsa Flood”. It could not have meant for Doha to be instrumental in the assault by financing it through funding the Hamas rule in Gaza.
The Qatari predicament is further illustrated by the absence of any initiative from influential Arab countries or willingness to extend a helping hand to Qatar in order to assist with ceasefire negotiations. Saudi diplomatic statements calling for a truce sound similar to those issued by European countries. The rest of the Gulf states express solidarity with the Palestinians and extend humanitarian assistance to them, but are not interested in forging a unified Arab position to buttress the ongoing truce efforts. Egypt is involved in the mediation process by virtue of it being the gateway to Gaza and nothing else. The rest of the Arab world just stands by as it watches Qatar being mired in a swamp of its own making.
Hamas itself has tried to knock on Tehran’s and Ankara’s doors. Its leader Ismail Haniyeh visited Iran and Turkey initially seeking support for the Palestinians in Gaza but subsequently looking for a safe political haven for his movement after Qatar decided that “no mediation” means “no Hamas in Doha”. Hamas knows that the game is over, and that is why it is discarding any initiatives about disarmament and the creation of a Palestinian state, focusing on just playing a political role. It reached this conclusion after realising that the Qataris were seeking to evade responsibility for the actions of Hamas and make sure the militant group’s leadership moves from Doha to another host country.
Qatar has learned how to stage appearances but has not yet mastered disappearing acts. It might need to hire Iranian or Turkish consultants who could help it gain more proficiency in this type of magic.
Dr Haitham El-Zobaidi is the executive editor of Al Arab Publishing Group.