Your move Mr. Erdogan

During the last decade Turkey has significantly spread its contingent abroad. The Turkish army conducts missions in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Karabakh and others.

Indeed president of Turkish Republic Recep Tayyip Erdogan has put a lot of effort into expanding Turkish armed forces and military-industrial complex. The Turkish army is one of the most capable armies in the region and in terms of quantity second in NATO. The battle against terrorism on its borders along with the growing ambitions of Turkish leader has left some of the players in the Middle East discontent. One of the countries that is most displeased by the Turkish policies in Syria is the United States.

The decision to buy Russia’s complex S-400 has served as a vivid catalyst in deteriorating relations between Washington and Ankara. The reaction of the White House came right around the corner. Economic sanctions were put on Turkey. The country was left without American fighters F-35 and that’s just the tip of an iceberg. In his turn Erdogan on multiple occasions has accused Washington of arming YPG/PKK, which is considered as a terrorist organization.

The discussions on the topic of the US threat are often spread in Turkish social media on the basis of strengthening of the White House’s positions in Syria and Greece. What is more surprising is that Turkish government representatives on multiple occasions on national television have not denied the possibility of a direct confrontation between two countries in the northern regions of Syria. There have been talks about dissonance within NATO for quite some time, however when it comes to the statements from the officials about the possibility of a direct confrontation between two of its biggest members it becomes quite evident that the misunderstanding between Ankara and Washington has risen to an all time high level of crisis. Additionally, withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria has become a common topic due to the growing number of deaths among Turkish troops and campaign’s complexity in terms of players involved in it.

One might jump to a conclusion that Ankara would strengthen the relationship with Moscow in the mid of tensions with the US. However, in the current state of affairs this direction is not a favorable one because of contrasting positions of two countries on the regulation of a Syrian crisis. The Sochi negotiations between Putin and Erdogan on the 29th of September had an intricate outcome. From one side no official statement was published afterwards, which is taken as a bad sign normally. From another side both leaders underlined the productiveness of the negotiations. 

We can only hope that the heads found a compromise on the matter but did not give an official statement to evade breaches of agreements and unwanted speculations. Quite possible that we will witness the change in sphere of influence by the end of which each side will gain a beneficial position.

At present a lot depends from Turkey and from which political vector it will choose. Will there be a change in the relations with YPG/PKK or will it strive to find common ground with Russia, which is lobbying Assad’s regime interests? The world is waiting, your move Mr. Erdogan.