Iran: Alarm bells ringing for the religious dictatorship
- Managing hostility with the United States
- Fanning the flames of war to prevent uprisings
- Alarm bells ringing for Khamenei
- Ebrahim Raissi and Masoud Pezeshkian: two sides of the same coin
- ‘The JCPOA, as it stands, cannot be revived’
Managing hostility with the United States
Araghchi stressed that tensions with the United States, particularly after the Gaza war, are unlikely to be resolved. He said: ‘Support for the Axis of Resistance, rooted in the beliefs and ideals of the Islamic Republic, is a non-negotiable policy. Some of our hostilities with the United States are irreconcilable because they stem from our fundamental beliefs and ideals. We do not seek to end hostility or tensions with the United States, because many of these tensions are based on fundamental differences. Our aim is to manage these hostilities to mitigate the costs imposed on us.’ Rooted in the Middle Ages, unable to respond to the fundamental demands of a hostile Iranian society in search of democracy and a better life, the mullahs' regime has survived by continually provoking crises in the region. Although it may momentarily reduce its use of these tactics, abandoning this survival strategy is not an option.
Fanning the flames of war to prevent uprisings
To deal with internal crises, in particular the wave of uprisings, the Iranian dictatorship fuelled the conflict by providing financial, logistical and military support to Hamas. Araghchi commented on the Gaza war, saying that ‘our foreign policy must be proactive. We must engage not only on the ground-in mullah jargon, ‘ground’ refers to activities such as terrorism, chaos and war to advance specific policies-but also in diplomacy. We must ensure that the ceasefire negotiations do not take place without taking Iran's position into account’.
The Iranian regime's attack on Israel, followed by Israel's retaliation, both aimed at weakening the other's deterrent capabilities, indicates that the flames of this conflict are likely to engulf the Iranian regime itself.
Alarm bells ringing for Khamenei
The parliamentary and presidential elections, boycotted by at least 90% of the population, have sent a serious warning to the Iranian dictator, Ali Khamenei, forcing him to reconsider some of his political strategies. Khamenei is now concentrating on lifting, even partially, the international sanctions against the country so that he can deal with the internal super-crises, such as galloping inflation and widespread poverty affecting more than two-thirds of the population. His aim is to avoid another uprising like those of 2017, 2019 and 2022. He is perfectly aware that the next uprising could be even more devastating and could herald the fall of the regime.
Khamenei's fear is based on the fact that, despite brutal repression, resistance units affiliated to the PMOI (People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran), the regime's sworn enemies, have grown considerably and could mobilise the popular power needed to overthrow the regime. It was largely thanks to these units that the elections were largely boycotted.
Ebrahim Raissi and Masoud Pezeshkian: two sides of the same coin
The death of Ebrahim Raissi in a helicopter crash has disrupted Khamenei's plans to purify and consolidate his government. Faced with severe isolation both internationally and domestically, the clerical dictator has now authorised the self-styled reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to stand in the presidential elections. Khamenei's strategy is twofold: on the one hand, to broaden the regime's base by bringing the previously fractured ‘reformists’ back into the fold, and on the other, to enter into negotiations with the United States during the presidential election in order to have the sanctions lifted, at least partially. Khamenei hopes that by doing so, he will be able to assuage the people's deep discontent, particularly in the face of inflation of more than forty percent and widespread poverty affecting more than two-thirds of the population, as well as other crucial issues.
‘The JCPOA, as it stands, cannot be revived’
In 2021, there was a chance of a nuclear deal under President Hassan Rohani, but Khamenei blocked it by passing prohibitive laws in parliament. The clerical dictator is adamant about not losing the advantage provided by nuclear facilities and enriched uranium; he has always brandished them like a sword of Damocles over his relations with Europe and the United States, using them as instruments of blackmail. In the same interview, Araghchi reiterated that ‘the JCPOA, in its current form, cannot be revived’. Nevertheless, the regime could consider reducing its uranium enrichment to 90% and even authorising inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency in order to obtain some relief from sanctions, particularly in the run-up to the US elections, without completely abandoning its nuclear ambitions. The regime could easily resume enrichment to 90% at will. Since 1983, Iran has been pursuing the manufacture of nuclear weapons, potentially spending billions of dollars in the process. Nuclear weapons are an integral part of the regime's survival strategy. Iran seeks to negotiate on the sword of Damocles that it wields over its relations with Europe and the United States, with the aim of obtaining concessions without ever fully laying down that sword.
Could Khamenei's delay in carrying out ‘severe reprisals’ be part of these tactical retreats to obtain concessions? The visit of Qatar's Foreign Minister to Tehran on 26 August 2024 could reinforce this speculation. However, even a tactical retreat by Khamenei risks exacerbating divisions at the top of the regime and, contrary to his intentions, could pave the way for another uprising, the very outcome the dictator is desperate to avoid.