Iranian nuclear programme: why is Khamenei not leaving the negotiating table despite his fiery speeches?
- The role of resistance units in the regime's strategy
- Reinforcement of surveillance and security control
- A society on the brink of explosion
- Negotiations or delaying tactics?
- A lasting solution: the Iranian people
However, he refrained from clearly indicating whether he accepted or rejected the latest US proposal.
Despite this bellicose rhetoric, intended primarily for domestic consumption, everything indicates that Khamenei does not want to withdraw from the negotiations. On Monday 9 June, although it rejected the US proposals, the regime stated that it would present its own proposals on the matter. There are two main reasons for this ambiguous behaviour:
- Fear of a popular uprising driven by resistance units;
- The need to buy time to wait for a favourable evolution of the political context.
The role of resistance units in the regime's strategy
Although he claimed in February that negotiating with the United States was ‘neither honourable nor intelligent’, Khamenei remains under pressure today. One of the determining factors is the rise of resistance units affiliated with the PMOI. Active throughout the country, they carry out daring protests despite severe repression.
According to two French researchers who wrote Riposte, a military attack against Iran could trigger a widespread insurrection, which these units would be able to steer towards regime change.
Reinforcement of surveillance and security control
On 7 June, Tehran launched an aerial surveillance plan using drones and satellites covering nearly 6,000 km². This system, established in collaboration with the University of the Guardians of the Revolution, represents an intensification of control over the capital.
President Pezeshkian also unveiled a ‘neighbourhood management’ plan aimed at mobilising the Basij militias as a local security force. Behind the rhetoric of ‘social resilience’, the real objective is to quell the growing anger of the population.
At the end of April, an agreement between the Ministry of Education and the security services legalised the presence of police in schools. Nearly 90,000 people, including many students, were arrested during the 2022 demonstrations.
A society on the brink of explosion
On 2 June, a resistance unit demonstrated in the Tehranpars neighbourhood, chanting ‘Free the imprisoned drivers!’ who had been arrested for participating in the general transport strike, and ‘Death to the dictator!’, an act of direct defiance against the regime's repression.
In May, political prisoners protested in Evin prison. Their families demonstrated outside, demanding the death sentences be overturned. These actions are part of a wave of persistent protests: strikes by workers, teachers, nurses, pensioners and a national truckers' strike affecting 155 cities.
On 31 March, Khamenei acknowledged that the main danger does not come from outside, but from the Iranian people themselves.
Negotiations or delaying tactics?
From 9 to 13 June, the IAEA is holding a meeting to examine Iran's violations of its commitments. Western powers want to adopt a resolution condemning Tehran. Rafael Grossi, director of the IAEA, has warned that although Iran does not yet have the bomb, it does have the necessary materials.
For more than 20 years, since the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed the existence of the regime's military nuclear programme, the latter has been using negotiations to buy time. The cost of its nuclear programme is estimated at $2 trillion. Recourse to the ‘snapback’ mechanism and the reactivation of UN sanctions are essential steps to prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
A lasting solution: the Iranian people
A regime that has brought nothing but war, terror and destruction must not be allowed to continue deceiving the international community. Referring the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council is crucial to preserving world peace.
But real change will come from within: supporting organised resistance — in particular the resistance units confronting the Pasdaran's repressive apparatus — offers a popular, stable and less costly solution for establishing democracy in Iran and stability in the region.
Hamid Enayat, an Iran specialist, works with the Iranian democratic opposition (NCRI). For La Dépêche, he returns today to the negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme.
Article published in La Dépêche.