Iranian presidential election 1403

So far, this article has been applied three times in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic:  

• After the dismissal of Abolhassan Bani Sadr first President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who died in Paris, by Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic, in 1981 leading to the election of Ali Rajaei. 
• A second time after Rajaei's death, bringing Khamenei to power. 
• And a third time after Khomeini's death. In the latter case, Ali Khamenei was acting president and, following his appointment as Supreme Leader, early elections were held.  
• For the fourth time, these early elections will be held. 

According to the timetable announced by the Ministry of Interior of the Islamic Republic of Iran, from Friday 30 May until the end of the day on Monday 3 June, candidates had to register with the Ministry of Interior. The Guardian Council will then examine the candidates' qualifications and announce the final names of the candidates on 11 June. After that, election campaigns will continue until the end of 6 July, with the presidential election taking place on 28 June. 

Candidate registration to date: 

According to the Ministry of Interior, the total number of eligible candidates for the fourteenth presidential election so far stands at 46.  

Among the candidates, four in particular stand out: 

1. Saeed Jalili: former secretary of the National Security Council from 2007 to 2013. 
2. Ali Larijani: former Speaker of Parliament for three consecutive terms from 2008 to 2020. 
3. Seyyed Vahid Haqqanian: executive assistant to the ruling house and executive advisor to Ali Khamenei. Often seen in the background in many photos with Khamenei. He played a role in suppressing the protests after the 2008 and January 2017 elections and is known as one of the main pillars of the leadership. 
4. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad served two terms as president from 2005 to 2013. During his tenure, the Iranian nuclear project underwent a major expansion, with astronomical expenditures. He took over management of the nuclear programme at a time when only five centrifuges were operating at the nuclear power plant and there was virtually no activity. Under Ahmadinejad, this figure has risen to 3,000 centrifuges. Due to electoral fraud and divisions at the top of the government, his rule provoked a popular uprising that was violently repressed by the Iranian regime. Ahmad Alirezabeigi, MP for Tabriz and former governor of East Azerbaijan under Ahmadinejad, said on 26 May: ‘If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad runs in the presidential elections, ... Ahmadinejad must be assured that he will be approved by the Guardian Council, because if he runs and is disqualified, it would have disastrous consequences’. 

Two poles in the presidential election:  

According to Iranian state media, Ali Larijani and Saeed Jalili are the two main contenders in the 1403 election. These two candidates have similar backgrounds in the Supreme National Security Council, but represent two different approaches to preserving the regime. 

• Ali Larijani: believes that regime preservation depends on international interaction and economic sustenance. Focused on lifting sanctions, he has experience working with the governments of Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rohani. 
• Saeed Khalili: having been involved in the nuclear negotiations, he is seen as the successor to Ebrahim Raisi's government and is of the same school of thought as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who believes in protecting the regime through absolute repression at home under various pretexts, such as the mandatory hijab. 
• If Ali Khamenei accepts former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the new president, this will undoubtedly cause many cracks at the top of the system, which will obviously lead, as in 2008, to massive uprisings at the base. This could put an end to the dictatorship of Ali Khamenei.  

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have two options to replace the outgoing president:   

Option 1: Ali Khamenei could continue to purge the regime to further consolidate it with radicals and resist waves of popular revolt. Supporters of this idea, such as the Supreme Leader himself, believe that this will better keep the mullahs' regime in power. In that case, he will seek a second Raisi to fully exercise his hegemony. This is the premise of any dictatorship. He believes that a split at the top of the regime is tantamount to an uprising at the grassroots, as happened in 2008.   

Option 2: the Supreme Leader would consider replacing Ebrahim Raisi with an internationally respected figure such as Ali Larijani (he has presided over parliament for three consecutive terms and was seen alongside the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution at Ebrahim Raisi's funeral). He and many others within the regime believe that, in order to keep it in power, it is necessary to interact with the West to prevent popular uprisings. The regime should not be hard on the people over the issue of the hijab, etc., but advocates of this idea cannot answer the question of how to give up even partial oppression of the people while preserving the Supreme Leader, who is the pillar of support of this regime.