Looking East: geopolitical cooperation between Iran and Russia

According to information obtained from within the regime and pro-government state media, Iranian regime analysts, and in particular the Supreme Leader, believe that after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unipolarity of the world, the United States is trying to establish Western governments everywhere.

For its part, the Iranian regime faces new existential challenges. One aspect of the Iranian regime's anti-Westernism and anti-Americanism was that, based on medieval religious dogmas, the Iranian theocracy, imposed on the contemporary world by a historical event, could not adapt to the modern world. Instead, it could cover its inability to meet the economic and cultural needs of the Iranian people with anti-Americanism.

But after the polarisation of the world and until today, we are faced with three changes:

1. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic has perpetrated terrorist acts and attacks in Al-Khobar (Saudi Arabia), contacts with Al-Qaeda, followed by the explosion of the Twin Towers in New York on September 11, and the cult and propagation of fundamentalist forces offering an image of a supposed Islamic government. By adopting an unprecedented internal repression and hostile policy, this regime seeks to impose its presence in the region in a precarious balance by demonstrating its regional power and exporting terrorism on a global scale. The result of this policy is that the regime continues to attack oil tankers and the sea lane, despite the West's appeasement policies to date.

2. By establishing extensive economic relations with the West since around 2000, and as a result of this economic boom, China has become the world's second largest economy and has made great military advances.

3. Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia remains a nuclear-armed military power. The occupation of Crimea has, to some extent, demonstrated this military might.

The Iranian theocracy believes that by forming an alliance, or at least moving closer to Russia and China, it can form a pole against the United States. The conclusion of 25-year contracts with China and the plundering of Iranian oil for China's benefit, as well as the agreement with Russia not to extract Iranian gas rights from the Caspian Sea and not to allow Iranian gas to flow to the European market, are part of this Eastern vision. Iran is the world's second largest gas resource. At a time when the Iranian regime is globally isolated, it wants these two countries to prevent a consensus in the Security Council and the use of the nuclear trigger mechanism against it.

The war in Ukraine and the position of the Iranian regime

Senior officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran have taken a position since the early hours of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In their position, they considered NATO provocations to be the reason for Russia's aggression against Ukraine, although they never used the word 'aggression' in their official statements.

In a speech on 1 March, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, without mentioning the Russian military attack on Ukraine, accused the United States of being responsible for the current situation in the country and said: "Ukraine is a victim of the crisis policy of the United States". Referring to the current situation in Ukraine and Afghanistan, Ali Khamenei called the support of Western governments for their "puppet governments" a "mirage" and said, "Those who rely on the United States should learn and understand this lesson."

In this regard, the presidents of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation spoke by telephone about international developments and the nuclear negotiations. During the conversation, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi noted that "NATO's eastward expansion is tense": NATO's expansion is a serious threat to the stability and security of independent countries in different regions. According to the semi-official ISNA news agency, the Iranian president expressed his hope that what is happening will benefit the countries of the region.

While Ukrainian media report that many Ukrainians have expressed their willingness to defend their country, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran said that the Ukrainian people do not accept their government and that "if the people take to the streets, the situation of the people and the government in Ukraine will change".
On the second day of the conflict in Ukraine, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council tweeted, "There is nothing more repugnant than war, but when the West tries to undermine national security in various ways, it is actually directly responsible for wars and crises aimed at opposing the West's strategy."

Cooperate to circumvent sanctions

The foreign ministers of Iran and Russia, who were in China for a conference, met. During the meeting, Lavrov said Moscow was working with Iran to circumvent Western sanctions.

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Beijing and Moscow were moving towards a fair and multilateral world order," the pro-Iranian Al-Alam newspaper reported. "We are going through a very serious stage in the history of international relations," Lavrov told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, Sputnik reported. "I believe that, as a result, the international situation will be significantly clarified and we will move, together with you and other like-minded nations, towards a multipolar, just and democratic world order," he added.

There are reports of cooperation between the two countries to circumvent sanctions. A few days ago, The Telegraph, citing officials, reported that Iran had secretly pledged to help Russia circumvent sanctions in exchange for Moscow's support for the new nuclear deal.

The nuclear negotiations

The nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 is close to being signed. Bagheri, Iran's chief negotiator, arrived in Tehran on 23 February and returned to Vienna on 26 February with Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian to sign the deal. At that time, the Iranian regime had not yet demanded that the signing of the agreement be conditional on the removal of the Revolutionary Guards from the OTF terrorism list. But on 24 February, Russia invaded Ukraine and, at the same time, the Iranian regime put a strong demand on the US table.

The Iranian regime demands that the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) be removed from the OTF terrorist list. If this demand is accepted, the regime will open its arms after the war in Ukraine to provoke a new war in the region. The IRGC is putting more pressure on the West through drone strikes or tank attacks so that the Iranian regime can meet its greater demands. And if the West does not accept this - the US Senate and Congress have shown that they do not - a new front against the West will open up.

Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov, who had previously said that Russia should be exempt from sanctions in its relations with Iran and had prevented the talks from moving forward, then announced that Russia would respect the sanctions imposed on Iran so as not to tarnish Russia's image. Instead, the talks failed and Iranian negotiators called in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Pressure on Europe through the oil and gas joker and the start of the invasion of Ukraine

Of course, the attack on Ukraine was not decided overnight. Therefore, Russia, being the world's sole exporter of oil and gas, wanted to be in a position to force the West to remain silent or not react adequately to its attack on Ukraine. As we have seen, Russia was trying in various ways to prevent a nuclear deal and thus prevent the flow of Iranian oil and gas to the market. The Russian representative, Ulyanov, had become an advocate of the Iranian regime in the talks.

The analytical news site Oil Price said earlier that under a 20-year agreement between Iran and Russia, the country would be able to control the sale of Iranian gas. In other words, under one of the provisions of the 20-year deal with Russia, Iran has agreed to let Russia circle the gas market and determine at what price and to which countries Iran will sell gas.

On the third day of the war against Ukraine, Russia threatened to cut off fuel supplies to Europe. At the same time, some analysts have argued that a nuclear deal with Iran could save Europe from a fuel crisis, allowing it to recover from a budget deficit and turn around its ailing economy. This statement was made at a time when it seems highly unlikely that Russia will easily lose its trump card to Europe.

On the other hand, some Western analysts have made new speculations about Iran, claiming that it deliberately abandoned the European gas market a few years ago in order to pave the way for Russia and put energy pressure on Europe. As if we somehow witnessed this pressure on Europe during the invasion of Ukraine.

According to Mehran Emadi, Iran's official economic adviser to the EU, before and in 2016, Europe planned to invest in Iranian gas projects to buy gas from Iran and reduce its dependence on Russia. The US had also acknowledged that Europe was interested in granting licenses to export gas from Iran, but the situation suddenly escalated to the point where the West said Iran did not want to cooperate and pursued Russia's energy policy.

Iran, whose economy is collapsing, is the world's second largest holder of natural gas. But it does not extract its share of gas and does not sell it. The Iranian theocracy does not pursue its own national interests either, but its own Islamist and fundamentalist interests. According to government expert Mehrdad Emadi, the Iranian people, at least half of whom live in extreme poverty, have been deprived of 23 billion dollars for not extracting oil.

Oil Price also claims that, with the discovery of a new gas field, Iran can supply 20 per cent of Europe's gas. The Chalus gas field (in northern Iran) could pose a serious geopolitical threat to Russia's dominant role in the European gas market. In other words, Russia has always tried to prevent Iranian gas from reaching Europe. Russia does not want Iran to enter the European energy market under any circumstances. Because if Iran enters the European energy market, Russia's power in Europe will be undermined.

On the third day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia officially threatened to cut off its gas exports to Europe. The Russian threat then prompted Germany to suspend further sanctions against Russia. This led to serious speculation among Europeans. A few years ago, Iran 'consciously' withdrew from the European gas market to increase Moscow's ability to increase pressure on Europe. With this speculation, Iran certainly helped Moscow to paralyse Europe by energy means and Europe could not help but react to the occupation campaign in Ukraine. In this sense, Iran, with Russia's help, has practically turned the European winter into an icy purgatory.

Europe's views on the Iranian issue have changed dramatically in recent days. Today, Europe faces an important question on the Iranian issue. First, was Iran a secret ally of Russia in the Ukraine affair? If the answer to this question is yes, another question arises: what are the objectives of the main decision-maker in Tehran, who is the Supreme Leader, who wanted a free hand to adopt any policy by bringing in Ibrahim Raisi and unifying his regime?

Previously, Europe saw Iran as a country that not only destabilised the region, but also posed a threat through its regional influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, its plans for missile development and attacks, and the development of Islamism and fundamentalism. But now the idea that Iran is Moscow's sword in the region is confirmed.

Iranian-Russian political cooperation and its effect on regional geopolitics

Cooperation between the Iranian and Russian regimes has led Arab countries to conclude important agreements with Russia to distance this country from Iran, and during the aggression against Ukraine, they did not support this country as other countries in the world did, publicly condemning this aggression, which is contrary to the UN Charter.

The Supreme Leader's interests in this murderous cooperation

Khamenei is in a state of internal and international isolation, and as Iranian society has become an explosive barrel and unable to solve its internal problems, he turns his "eyes to the East" and adopts hostility and opposition to the US and the West. It does not only want to plunder oil by negotiating with China, or plunder other mines, or create a crack in the P5+1 with Russia's help so that, for example, the Iranian issue does not reach the Security Council or the trigger mechanism against Iran is not used.

Khamenei has always supported not Iran's interests, but those of Islamism or its fundamentalists. And as long as it is not in the interests of the Iranian people, reaching an atomic agreement in which regional abandonment or the construction of an atomic bomb is abandoned forever is a mirage, if not childish thinking.