Nuclear weapons, executions...: Iran is experiencing an unprecedented situation

1. The increase in military threats 
2. Unlike in 2015, the situation has changed 
3. Firm stance on the regime's nuclear programme 
4. Activation of the snapback mechanism 
5. Growing internal crises in the face of external pressure 
6. Therefore, overthrowing the mullahs' regime is no longer a far-fetched option

At the crossroads of the threat of an Israeli attack, the activation of the UN's ‘snapback’ mechanism and growing popular discontent, the Islamic Republic seems to be more than ever on the verge of a historic turning point. 

An unprecedented situation is unfolding in Iran. In the second month of the Iranian calendar alone (21 April to 21 May), at least 158 people were executed. This means, on average, one execution every 4.5 hours. This appalling figure is unprecedented in decades. Some analysts in Tehran are comparing this wave of executions to the massacre of political prisoners in the summer of 1988. At that time, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, after agreeing to a ceasefire with Iraq in their eight-year war – which he described as ‘drinking from the cup of poison’ – launched the massacre of 30,000 political prisoners, particularly members of the People's Mujahedin Organisation of Iran, considered the backbone of the Iranian Resistance. 

Khomeini, who tirelessly repeated his desire to fight ‘to the last house in Tehran,’ was eventually forced to step down. Even today, some observers believe that the regime is in a similar situation, except that this time it is much weaker and faces growing hatred both within the country and internationally. 

The increase in military threats 

Parallel to the stalemate in negotiations, Israel has threatened the Iranian regime with military action due to its persistent refusal to agree to a complete halt to uranium enrichment on its soil. Tehran's concerns are not limited to the possible destruction of its nuclear facilities; what really frightens the leaders of the Islamic Republic is the possibility that such an attack could trigger a national uprising. 

That is why, as soon as these threats were made public, the Iranian foreign minister sent a letter to the United Nations holding the United States responsible for any consequences. For the regime, giving up its nuclear programme is not just a political concession: such a retreat could lead to the collapse of the ‘hard core of power’, a structure that for decades has been based on slogans such as ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ and has been maintained through repression and executions. 

Unlike in 2015, the situation has changed 

Unlike in 2015, when the appeasement policy led by Europe and the United States led to the signing of the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the current situation has changed profoundly. The regime can no longer take advantage of its tactic of threatening and buying time. 

It now finds itself in a state of absolute weakness. 

Firm stance on the regime's nuclear programme 

Steve Witkoff, the US representative in the negotiations, stated that uranium enrichment, even up to one per cent on Iranian soil, was unacceptable.

This firm stance was supported by European countries, which threatened to activate the snapback mechanism, a measure that would lead to the reinstatement of all UN sanctions against Iran. 

In response to this pressure, Ali Khamenei made ambiguous statements, declaring: ‘The negotiations will not succeed... I don't know what will happen.’ A statement interpreted as a sign of growing confusion within the regime. 

Activation of the snapback mechanism 

The semi-official newspaper Farhikhtegan, close to the government, reported on a tense meeting in Istanbul between Iranian representatives and the European troika. At this meeting, the Europeans took a firm stance: not only did they reiterate their threat to activate the snapback mechanism, but they also mentioned the ‘Snapback Plus’ clause, which would allow sanctions to be reintroduced without prior consensus or coordination with Washington. 

These pressure tactics could plunge the regime into an unprecedented impasse, especially if they coincide with internal unrest. The snapback mechanism is an extremely powerful weapon which, if unleashed, could plunge the Iranian regime into a crisis of unimaginable proportions. 

Growing internal crises in the face of external pressure 

Alongside international pressure, the Islamic Republic faces a multitude of internal crises. Water shortages are so severe that reservoir levels behind certain dams have fallen dramatically, to the point that in some cases the dry riverbed has become a training ground for off-road motorcycles. 

Frequent power cuts, even in hospitals, schools and factories, have severely disrupted the daily lives of the population. The sudden collapse of the national currency, rampant double-digit inflation and widespread poverty affecting more than 80% of the population have hollowed out the Iranian economy. 

In this climate of tension, strikes are on the rise. Transport workers, bakers and workers in various sectors have launched protests. The government newspaper Jahan-e Sanat has warned that discontent is growing, stating that power cuts in industrial areas have caused serious tensions and that ‘the smell of violent unrest is beginning to be felt’ in some regions. According to two French researchers, authors of a recently published book on the October War, ‘overthrowing the mullahs' regime is no longer a far-fetched option.’ According to them, given that 80% of the population wants regime change, ‘it would not take much for a popular uprising to break out.’ 

This set of circumstances, coupled with growing international tensions, seems to mark a decisive turning point in the contemporary history of Iran and the region. The Middle East – and Iran in particular – appears to be on the threshold of a major transformation. 

Therefore, overthrowing the mullahs' regime is no longer a far-fetched option

There are several hypotheses on the table. According to a recent poll, more than 80% of Iranians want regime change. So it wouldn't take much for a popular uprising to break out. But a direct Israeli attack, with or without US support, is also possible. In any case, the destruction of Iran's nuclear programme and its main refineries will serve as a launching pad for the overthrow of the regime in Tehran. 

Published in La Dépêche du Midi.