Pursuit of national interests is an indicator of the renunciation of the atomic bomb

The oil market has been one of the markets that has experienced continuous upward fluctuations in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Less than 24 hours after the start of the crisis, the price of a barrel of oil reached a record high of $100, $110 on 2 March and $126 on 8 March. Brent crude oil hit $129 on 13 March. At times, it has reached $139, with an upward trend that is not likely to stop there.

Some international analysts expect oil prices to reach $200 if sanctions on Russian oil and gas continue, and if the Ukrainian crisis drags on. The International Energy Agency, for example, predicted on Wednesday that it would suspend exports of three million barrels a day of Russian oil from April, which would be a shock to the global market.

With oil prices on the rise, this could be an excellent opportunity for the Iranian regime to rebuild its failing economy and abject poverty, which has transformed society into an explosive powder keg. But the continuation of sanctions and the failure to revive JCOPA will cause irreparable damage to Iran. With this new agreement, Iran can provide the platform for investment and development of its oil infrastructure, and provide adequate infrastructure for gas extraction. Iran has the second largest gas reserves in the world.

Although Iran's economic growth has been moderately negative for years, the rate of fixed capital formation is lower than capital depreciation. In other words, no efforts have been made to rehabilitate roads, modernise industries, improve production indicators, etc. This trend shows that the Iranian economy suffers from enormous corruption. With such an economy, is it possible to neutralise the extreme poverty that, according to the regime's media, affects more than half of the population?

There has been much speculation that Russia has taken the Vienna talks as hostage. However, on 15 March, Lavrov said he had received written assurances that this would open the door to negotiations.

Although the state-run Farhikhtegan newspaper "has learned from figures close to the Iranian nuclear negotiating team that the US insistence in recent days that some key Iranian institutions remain on the sanctions list, including the IRGC which remains on the FTO sanctions list, has stalled the nuclear talks".

Tehran's insistence on removing the IRGC from the list is an obvious reason for the regime's reluctance to relinquish its regional influence. Assuming that Russia is the reason for the suspension of negotiations, why should Tehran not have an independent position based on its national interests in these negotiations and become a completely passive actor on Russian soil? When Tehran ignores the numerous economic and livelihood problems of the people in order to get Russia's approval, does this not show that the Iranian regime is not pursuing its national interests?

The nuclear talks in Vienna have been going on for eleven months. But the mullahs will never be willing to give up their nuclear project, which is one of the pillars of their strategy.

After the 2015 nuclear deal, the mullahs used the unlocked $150 billion and oil revenues to expand their militia network in the region, as well as to develop missiles and nuclear programmes, with nothing for the Iranian people. We have seen two major uprisings in 2018 and 2019 based on poverty and high prices. This time, the deal is wanted just to get more money, not to help its people.

As long as the Iranian regime does not pursue national interests and adheres to Islamism, i.e. religious fundamentalism, this is the best indication that the regime will not give up the construction of the atomic bomb and its regional influence. And it is trying to achieve this with all sorts of tricks.

The day after the suspension of the talks, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared on 10 March: "Presence in regional affairs is our strategic depth. It is in itself a means to strengthen the regime, a means of its power. How can we lose this when we can and must have something like this?"