The fall of Bashar al-Assad is also a moment of celebration for the Iranian people
- The strategic loser of the war
- A society on the brink of explosion
- The resistance units: the biggest threat to the regime
- A future with a credible alternative
After the severe blow inflicted on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the virtual disintegration of this proxy force, described as the ‘mother’ of all the regime's proxy forces in the region, Iranian Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei has suffered another strategic setback, this time in Syria. Khamenei had publicly declared that Syria was Iran's 35th province. The Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, was on the verge of collapse in the face of the rise of the forces of freedom in his country. However, Ali Khamenei sent Qassem Soleimani and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to intervene. This intervention prevented the fall of Assad, but at the cost of at least half a million deaths and the displacement of millions of Syrians.
Nine years ago, the fall of Assad could have been achieved in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. However, Khamenei, backed by a policy of international appeasement, prevented this from happening. According to credible reports, Khamenei embezzled some 50 billion dollars of the Iranian people's resources between 2010 and 2019. This money, channelled through IRGC General Soleimani, was used to suppress freedom fighters in Syria and keep Assad in power. Meanwhile, in 2017, during the popular uprising in Iran, demonstrators chanted, ‘Leave Syria alone, think of us!’
Ali Khamenei has often said that if they did not fight in Syria, they should fight in Tehran or near his own headquarters. Today, this statement has backfired: he is forced to face thousands of resistance units fighting in the streets of Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz.
The Iranian regime rests on two fundamental pillars: internal repression and warmongering, as well as terrorism abroad. Today, one of these two pillars has collapsed. As a result, eventually Khamenei will have to erect barricades near his residence. The fall of Bashar al-Assad will therefore not only be a great victory for the Syrian people, but also a moment of celebration for the Iranian people.
The strategic loser of the war
Two years ago, a national uprising broke out in more than 280 Iranian cities, where the Iranian people expressed their clear desire to overthrow the regime. This event, also known as the Mahsa uprising, marked a historic turning point, revealing that the religious dictatorship had entered its final phase.
Aware of this existential threat, Khamenei sought to divert attention by triggering or amplifying conflicts in the Middle East. In this way, he hoped to avoid a final uprising that would seal his political fate in Iran.
However, as the opposition, represented by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), predicted from the outset, the regime has become the strategic loser in these wars. Today, the facts bear this out. The Revolutionary Guards and Khamenei's intelligence forces will suffer the same fate in the face of the uprising and organized resistance of the Iranian people.
A society on the brink of explosion
Every day, the mullahs' regime squanders astronomical sums to finance its warmongering policies and equip its proxy groups in the region. This headlong rush is accompanied by a militaristic budgetary policy. For example, in the 2025-2026 budget, the share of oil revenues allocated to the armed forces exceeds that allocated to all civilian ministries.
Meanwhile, budgets for essential infrastructure - such as education, health, transport, energy, and communications - have been cut to the bare minimum.
Since 2011, food prices have rocketed, increasing 40-fold. Recently, the regime's president himself admitted that the government's crises had reached a critical point. To make up the budget deficit, due to its military adventures, the regime has raised the price of fuel and other essential goods, aggravating popular discontent.
In recent months, nurses, teachers, pensioners, and workers, particularly in the oil and petrochemical sectors, have organised numerous strikes and demonstrations.
Despite this explosion of social anger, the regime is incapable of abandoning its warmongering and repressive policies. They are at the heart of its survival strategy. Any renunciation of these policies would accelerate its collapse. As a result, the regime can neither reform its system nor avoids economic collapse. Reforms would mean renouncing warmongering and granting more freedoms, which is inconceivable for a retrograde and authoritarian regime rooted in a medieval mentality.
The resistance units: the biggest threat to the regime
The main danger to the Iranian regime comes not just from economic collapse or popular discontent, but from the organised resistance across the country. The resistance units play a significant role, carrying out an average of more than 20 anti-repression operations every day. On the fifth anniversary of the November 2019 uprising, on 23 and 24 November, these units carried out 110 campaigns against repression. These actions honoured the memory of the 1,500 young demonstrators killed by the regime's security forces.
Despite brutal repression - including mass executions and arbitrary imprisonment - the regime has not succeeded in eradicating resistance. The protest movement is making inexorable progress towards its goal: to put an end to the dictatorship. This determination can be seen in the bloody history that separates the Iranian people from the regime, with more than 100,000 political prisoners executed over the years.
The regime cannot even suspend executions for a day. The so-called morality patrols serve only to contain a society in revolt while exposing the regime's institutionalised misogyny. In Iran, repression is omnipresent, and there are no relatively independent newspapers.
A future with a credible alternative
Widespread discontent, combined with the rise of resistance units capable of confronting the Revolutionary Guards, is a decisive force for radical change in Iran.
The democratic alternative, represented by the NCRI, is leading this struggle thanks to its clear programme, international recognition, and financial independence. With the support of the Iranian people, the NCRI has been a pioneer in exposing the regime's nuclear ambitions and interventionist policies.
According to the NCRI's plan, after the fall of the regime, a provisional government will be formed for a maximum period of six months. Its main task will be to organise elections for a Constituent Assembly. Power will then be transferred to the elected representatives of the people, who will draft a new constitution and put it to a referendum.
Thanks to this credible alternative, chaos will be avoided. Millions of exiled Iranians will return to rebuild their country, contributing their skills and capital. A vast community of Iranian experts abroad will play a key role in rebuilding the Iran of tomorrow.
The NCRI's ten-point programme emphasises freedom, gender equality, the autonomy of ethnic minorities, equality between all religions and the separation of religion and state. It also advocates the abolition of the death penalty, a non-nuclear Iran and peace in the Middle East.
With such a vision, the Iran of tomorrow can be reborn, free from the shackles of oppression.