Western Sahara: Washington relaunches the path to autonomy, while the SMP emerges as a realistic alternative
- A US text with clear political contours
- A coordinated diplomatic offensive
- The emergence of the SMP: the Sahrawi voice of realism
- An approach converging with UN diplomacy
- A regional and generational challenge
- Towards the end of a historical cycle
The text, backed by the Trump administration, aims to place Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan at the centre of the political solution, while reaffirming — under pressure from several delegations — the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination, in accordance with the United Nations Charter.
This shift marks a turning point. For the first time in decades, the United States is not content with a mediating role, but is taking a strategic line: that of diplomatic realism, which considers regional stability to take precedence over ideological confrontation. In a context in which the Maghreb and the Sahel are undergoing geopolitical restructuring, Washington wants to impose a ‘pragmatic’ solution capable of bringing opposing positions closer together without reigniting the cycle of armed tensions.
A US text with clear political contours
Presented on 22 October, the draft resolution describes the Moroccan plan for ‘autonomy within the Moroccan state’ as ‘the most viable solution’, even as ‘the sole basis for discussion’. This wording, although subsequently revised, reflects the US desire to close the debate around a single framework.
Under the impetus of the State Department and Donald Trump's strategic circle, the idea is to make autonomy an instrument of pacification, while avoiding explicit references to an independence referendum, which has been considered ‘inapplicable’ for more than thirty years.
In view of the reservations expressed by Algeria, Russia and several African states, a modified version reintroduced the reference to ‘the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination’, a concession necessary to avoid a veto.
But the balance remains fragile: by inscribing autonomy as the preferred horizon, the United States seeks to force a doctrinal shift within the United Nations, moving from a rigid decolonisation paradigm to a framework of negotiated governance.
This shift is in line with the United States' recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in December 2020, a decision that paved the way for a series of diplomatic alignments: Spain, France and the United Kingdom have since expressed their explicit or implicit support for Rabat's proposal.
A coordinated diplomatic offensive
From Rabat to Washington, Moroccan diplomacy has carried out an unusually intense campaign in recent months.
Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita has multiplied bilateral exchanges: Panama, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Slovenia, South Korea, not to mention talks in Paris, Beijing and Moscow.
This strategy of cross-alliances aims to consolidate a majority bloc around the US resolution.
In the shadows, France and the United Kingdom have supported Rabat through ‘like-minded’ diplomacy, activating their European and Commonwealth networks, while the United States has focused its efforts on Islamabad, Seoul and Ljubljana.
At the same time, Morocco updated its autonomy project by consulting with French, British and Spanish diplomats. Recommendations inspired by French Polynesia, Scotland and the autonomous communities of Spain were presented to Rabat.
This approach suggests a hybrid model: expanded autonomy under recognised sovereignty, with international guarantees and a high level of local self-management.
The emergence of the SMP: the Sahrawi voice of realism
In this context of recomposition, the Sahrawi Movement for Peace (SMP) is asserting itself as an unavoidable actor.
Founded in 2020 by former Polisario Front leaders from the Tindouf refugee camps and the Sahrawi diaspora, the SMP proposes a third way: that of dialogue, compromise and popular legitimacy.
The movement claims an active presence in Laayoune, Dakhla, Smara, Nouadhibou, Nouakchott and several European capitals, where it mobilises a large part of the Sahrawi population eager to turn the page on exile and the status quo.
Under the leadership of Hach Ahmed Baricalla, the SMP advocates an approach based on three principles:
- Recognition of the realities on the ground: Morocco already administers more than 80% of the territory.
- Direct participation of Sahrawis in the negotiations: no solution can be imposed without their voice.
- Balance between sovereignty and self-determination: negotiated autonomy as a modern form of self-determination.
Long before Washington committed to this path, the SMP was already advocating for a consensual and shared solution, perceived not as a surrender but as an act of political maturity.
This position, which initially gained credibility in African and European diplomatic circles, now finds direct echoes in the terminology of the US project.
An approach converging with UN diplomacy
Since the appointment of Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations has been trying to reintroduce alternative actors into the political process, after decades of bipolarisation between Rabat and the Polisario Front.
The SMP fits perfectly into this dynamic: it embodies the internal plurality of the Sahrawi people, while proposing a roadmap compatible with UN principles.
Its approach—negotiated autonomy with international guarantees—coincides with the inclusive realism advocated by several permanent members of the Council.
In addition, the SMP has been able to establish channels of dialogue with Western, African and Latin American foreign ministries, advocating that peace in Western Sahara be conceived as a pillar of stability in the Maghreb and the Sahel.
Through its forums, its letters to the UN Secretary-General and its public statements, the movement has given a voice to the silent majority of Sahrawis who aspire to dignity, participation and security, rather than the rhetoric of confrontation.
A regional and generational challenge
The debate on 30 October is therefore not simply a technical vote on MINURSO.
It is a profound readjustment of international priorities: how to reconcile historical justice, regional stability and popular aspirations?
In this equation, the role of the MSP becomes crucial. By advocating for real autonomy, respecting the political and cultural rights of the Sahrawis, the movement paves the way for lasting regional reconciliation.
It also gives the new generations of Sahrawis a new horizon: that of living and working in their hometowns, Laayoune, Dakhla, Smara, in peace and dignity.
Towards the end of a historical cycle
If the US draft resolution were to be adopted, even in amended form, it would mark the end of the paradigm of total confrontation and the beginning of an era of constructive realism.
The convergence between the Moroccan plan, the US initiative and the Sahrawi vision of the MSP opens up the possibility of a new political pact based on participation, recognition and stability.
Western Sahara could thus cease to be a battleground for geopolitical rivalries and become a laboratory for regional cooperation, where sovereignty, autonomy and peace are articulated around a single objective: the well-being of the Sahrawi populations.
Between the lines of diplomatic discourse, one fact stands out: the Sahrawi realism of the SMP is no longer a marginal utopia, but the living embodiment of what the world is now seeking: a just, negotiated and inclusive peace.