No news on the front
It has been a month since the Polisario Front declared war on Morocco, and the news is that there is still no news. At least as far as the war question is concerned.
The only slight variation in this respect is a certain accentuation of the rhetoric regarding the alleged war actions. From the decaffeinated bombings in the desert in the early days, we have moved on to similar ones, but with "significant material and human casualties". This is always according to the daily official war reports, almost traced and indistinguishable from one day to the next, not far from the classic "stick cutter". And where the Polisario is showing that it is winning this supposed war by crushing.
All this is being publicised through the official media and social networks, where the latest occurrence was the death by coronavirus of a Moroccan army colonel, who was passed off as being killed on the front. In what appears to be more of a dirty war than a real one.
These networks mention attacks with Russian 'Kornet' type anti-tank missiles and violent artillery attacks, but the only thing that can be verified audiovisually, by doing even a small search, are images of cannon fire towards the immensity of the desert in the direction of who knows where, amidst cheers and harangues, recorded who knows when. As well as photos of smiling young recruits in clear signs of comradeship, but with few signs of anxiety.
From all this it could be inferred that we are rather facing long-lasting manoeuvres, at most with some small skirmishes, reconverted into war by the Polisario media apparatus. Anything less would require a colossal exercise of faith in view of the doubts generated by the foregoing and the little real evidence provided by those who most vehemently demand international recognition of this state of war. At the time, the Polisario Front.
In connection with the latter, Abdullah al-Arabi, Polisario's delegate in Spain, recently stated that "if it is not true that there is a war, let MINURSO say so, and if it is true, let it also say so". Also in 'ECSAHARAUI', one of the media close to Polisario, it is mentioned that "Moroccan fighters have intervened for the first time in the war in Western Sahara", adding that "Morocco has finally recognised the existence of the war". This is undoubtedly an exercise in imagination, in twisting reality, or in cheating the loner. Depending on how you look at it, it's up to you.
Behind all this huge succession of news and non-contrasting publications from one side, accompanied by constant appeals to recognise the veracity of the war, is a permanent desire to draw attention to events that have already failed, both strategically and in terms of the visibility of the conflict, which is their raison d'être. The fact is that the real impossibility of a war being waged by Polisario against Morocco is evident, owing mainly to the imbalance between the two armies. This certainty has been repeated ad nauseam over the past few years. Meanwhile, the best weapon is to keep the flame of conflict alive on the networks and Internet through propaganda-which is quite permeable in Spanish public opinion, by the way-where hoaxes and 'fake news' are rife on a daily basis. Something to which we are unfortunately already accustomed in any field.
Likewise, this desperate attempt by Polisario to defrost the dispute since the events of the Guerguerat had a clear motive. To seek to make tension escalate, to make Morocco, faced with the provocations of others, take a false step in the form of an attack and subsequent tragedy, and in turn cause the international community to mobilise in some way. I have no doubt that Polisario was thinking along those lines, but events have overtaken them in scarcely a month.
That is the only war that seems to exist. What finally happens we will see as the weeks go by. For the time being, time is passing and the balance of power is changing. Without going into detail on the recent news of Donald Trump's recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara, if what Polisario wanted was to make the conflict visible, the strategy is not only not turning out as expected but may have the opposite effect. In fact, here in Spain, Pablo Iglesias haggled over the issue when he was questioned by her on prime time television. However, important political leaders have publicly expressed their opposition to this way of proceeding. Former Presidents Zapatero, Manuel Valls and Tunisian President Marzouki have openly spoken of an agreed or negotiated solution, as the UN Security Council resolutions on this matter have been doing in previous years.
The latest to speak out these days was none other than Aitor Esteban, spokesman at the PNV Congress, one of the great political supporters of Polisario for decades. The Basque politician surprised everyone by declaring that "we must look after Morocco because of its geostrategic importance". Likewise, recognising that the Saharan side has missed opportunities, he said that 'we must make Polisario see what is possible and what is impossible, because the world has changed a lot in recent years'. Revealing words coming from whom they come from.
All this breeding ground undoubtedly deserves serious reflection by Saharawi leaders, especially when your strongest supporters start to take off their blindfolds and land in the 21st century on this issue. And because a large fraction of the Saharawi community is also calling for more pragmatic ways to be explored to end this regrettable journey to nowhere that has lasted more than four decades.