BRICS

The founding members of this group of countries are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Subsequently, in January 2024, they were expanded to include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran.   

Argentina was also scheduled to join, but the new government of President Milei withdrew its candidacy and Saudi Arabia did not complete the process.  

Now, in Kazan, in Putin's Russia, which is somewhat breaking its international isolation, the door has been opened to 13 associate members. The founding countries, which have the right of veto as the UN Security Council is criticised for having, are acting more cautiously because their initial objectives of relaunching their political, economic and social weight in a world with a world order dominated by the US and the West are now compromised by the direct confrontation between Russia and the West over the invasion of Ukraine and now by the war in the Middle East. 

One could explain why governments such as India, Brazil, South Africa, as well as Egypt, the Emirates and the frustrated member Saudi Arabia have taken a low profile and are waiting for events to unfold before showing their preferences and coming to the aid of the victor.    

To give an idea, the BRICS account for 36% of the world's GDP and 45% of the world's population. One of their major ambitions, driven by China, is to do away with the dollar as a transaction currency in international trade and to give the Chinese yuan greater capacity.     

While some governments, such as Turkey's Erdogan, are now playing both sides of the fence to revalue their interests in NATO, other founding countries such as India are keen not to dilute their influence and for the BRICS not to become a henhouse with an uncontrolled influx of members that will weaken rather than help the organisation.    

And the clearest example is the European Union. Brazil's Lula's intentions are clear when it comes to being the Latin American representative of reference and he has even vetoed the entry of Chavista Venezuela as an associate member.    

What was born to confront the G-7, the most developed countries in the West, now controls and regulates its growth to avoid undesired effects on its interests with key countries such as the United States.   

All prevention is too little in the face of the uncertainty of the winner of the White House elections. The opinion of JPMorgan's CEP resonates on the international scene: World War III has begun.