Mohammed VI's gamble
The King of Morocco is betting big and affirms that the Sahara is non-negotiable and that the solution to the conflict is autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. Mohammed VI intends to culminate in a more or less prudent timeframe the process that will lead to a solution to a conflict that has lasted 45 years, which will allow Morocco's territorial integrity to be sealed and put an end to an undignified and very precarious life for thousands of people in the Tindouf camps.
The Alawite monarch's intervention on the occasion of the 46th anniversary of the Green March is in line with a strategy that has been perfectly designed and executed since Mohammed VI came to the throne in 1999, and which has had a decisive boost since 2017 following Morocco's re-entry into the African Union. The winds favourable to Moroccan interests began to blow strongly in December 2020 when Donald Trump announced that the United States recognised Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara, at the same time as our Maghreb neighbour established official relations with Israel. By then, UN Security Council resolutions did not mention the holding of the referendum, such as this year's resolution extending MINURSO's mandate and recommending negotiations for a realistic, practicable, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution.
Both the Polisario Front and Algeria strongly criticised the resolution, and several days earlier Algiers had even walked out of the UN-sponsored Geneva Sahara table, endorsed in the resolution as a framework for resolving the conflict.
Tension in the region has been ratcheted up too high by Algiers' decisions to break diplomatic relations with Morocco in August, close airspace to its Moroccan neighbours, shut down the Maghre-Europe gas pipeline that passes through Morocco, and accuse Morocco internationally of state terrorism for the deaths of three Algerian civilians in an incident under investigation.
In the face of this tension, Morocco's response has been one of calm, rejection of violence, and assurances that it will not let itself be carried away by tension or allow destabilisation of the region. Mohammed VI has not mentioned Algeria in his speech, although he did at the Throne Party on 31 July, offering good neighbourliness and coexistence to Algeria. However, his current messages seek the final push for negotiations from, he said, his partners from whom he expects bolder and clearer positions. He did not mention European countries such as Spain, France or Germany, but did warn that he would not maintain trade relations with those who do not recognise the Sahara as Moroccan. A gamble with good cards, within the framework of the UN, and with a clear intention to win the game.