Putin, at a low ebb

Time has taught us that prudence is essential for analysing events and, above all, for making a serious and accurate forecast of what might happen. It happened at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Recklessness and ignorance, supreme in too many areas, predicted Putin's military promenade with the seizure of Kiev within 48 hours. Many months later, Kiev is living almost normally, the Ukrainian offensive on the Kherson and Kharkov fronts is proceeding apace, Russian troops are withdrawing, abandoning a large number of armoured vehicles and weapons with their ammunition, internal criticism of Putin is being heard more loudly and the jewel of the new Russian tsar, the Kerch bridge that links Crimea with Russia, has been attacked. The reaction has been to spread terror in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities by shelling civilians and destroying part of the Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, further punishing civilians on the eve of winter.

The situation is not the best for Russia's president, but one should be very cautious when talking about a near end. There is no doubt that it is in everyone's interest that the conflict in Ukraine ends as soon as possible. Even China has publicly sent clear messages to Putin about the damage of a situation that has spread too far, causing serious damage to the international economy and resulting in heavy losses for exports that represent a fundamental pillar of Beijing's economy. The Asian giant's economic data and its social repercussions are not the most appropriate for leader Xi Jinping, who now has to attend the Communist Party congress where more than one is waiting for his chance, although he has few options. What is really relevant is the leeway that the Chinese leader has given Putin because the great threat looming over the world is that the Kremlin dictator could use nuclear weapons. Joe Biden and Angela Merkel agree that Putin is not joking when he says he can use all kinds of weapons to defend his interests. He must now face up to the challenge posed by the Kerch bridge attack and avoid continuing to present an image of weakness that allows his internal enemies on both sides to put him on the back foot. The use of nuclear weapons, albeit tactically limited in effect, would bring about the apocalypse, warns Biden in a speech that looks ahead to the US congressional elections in November. It is worth noting that US intelligence has weakened Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski by leaking that part of his government is behind the assassination of Alexander Duguin's daughter. The game is being played with an endgame that some may be preparing for, but unpleasant surprises cannot be ruled out.