Russia longs for the Atlantic

The first target would be Moldova, while the Baltic countries would be in the crosshairs, as would the need to connect the coastal city of Kaliningrad, the main base of the Russian fleet in the north.

There are those who believe that the Russian attrition in Ukraine has been much greater than anticipated in the worst-case scenarios by the Kremlin's military planners. The number of casualties, the economic cost and the deterioration of relations with a large number of countries tip the balance towards a prolonged pause for reflection before undertaking any further external aggression.

However, in the hard core of power in Moscow, pressure is being put on President Vladimir Putin to take advantage of the momentum created, the modernisation of weapons systems, especially drones, the multilateral structure of front companies to circumvent Western economic sanctions and the cybernetic and propaganda machinery for internal interference and destabilisation abroad.

It should be emphasised at this point that the expansion longed for by Putin is focused on the Arctic and is taking place in Africa, although they have not been able to achieve the main objective, which is to reach the Atlantic Ocean through the Sahara or Mauritania. But they have been manoeuvring for several years in the Sahel countries to destabilise the area and gain what would represent geostrategic support in their fight against the European Union and the United States.

There have been military coups d'état with Russian support from the former Wagner Company in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. In Mauritania, they have seen their influence decline due to the timely reaction of NATO and the EU in strengthening their relations and reinforcing the Nouakchott government. But they have armed the Malian troops with drones and other weapons, and now they outnumber the Tuaregs and are attacking Mauritanian interests. A very real threat that represents a great challenge for the Europeans, even if Moscow's spokesmen in Spanish far-left parties deny Putin's foreign ambitions. It is very close and within the enormous significance and interests of relations between the United States and the European Union. Despite the apparent distance put by Donald Trump, Europeans should demand that Washington's allies include an end to interference in the Sahel in their negotiations with Moscow to avoid destabilising North Africa.