Uncertain 2023
Making forecasts about what may happen during the year ahead is a common practice, with greater or lesser success in predictions. In the case of 2023, the word that best describes it is: uncertain. We do not know what may happen in too many countries, in numerous conflicts, with economic crises and with multiple characters who have achieved power.
Uncertainty is the worst-case scenario for the economy, and therefore for the creation and consolidation of jobs of a certain quality. We find ourselves in a situation where the negative effects of globalization are fulfilled because the interconnected world we have built transmits fear and dread of what might happen. The most harmful focus for Western interests, especially for Europeans, is still to be found in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the confrontation with the Russian president who is using all the resources at his disposal.
Energy as the most valuable weapon manifests itself daily in the shattered homes of millions of Ukrainians who are resisting without light, heating, water, hot food or even medicine. The struggle is also transferred to the European economies that suffer from the gas and oil cuts coming from Russia and in the families where, in addition, the increase in the prices of the shopping basket is a serious added problem.
The rest of the world is coping as best it can with the effects of the global crisis where cereals and grain and drought are causing very delicate situations. In Europe, warmer than usual temperatures this winter are helping to make more bearable a situation that is expected to worsen in the new year, according to all forecasts. It is not a question of being a catastrophist; the point is to offer the data with as much reality as possible, always within the limitations imposed by the circumstances.
Putin is not going to allow himself to be defeated in Ukraine, but neither can NATO assume that the Russian dictator will bend his pulse, while we can perceive that, in parallel, the greatest dispute that is causing a very worrying instability in the world is the one between the two superpowers. China and the United States are vying for international hegemony in the economic and commercial spheres, but above all at the forefront of new technologies.
The race to change the order that emerged after the fall of the Soviet bloc last century is including a generalized rearmament that has caused widespread alertness. China is leading the increase in military spending, creating great uncertainty in Taiwan, which is only surpassed by the resurgence of Covid and its possible effects worldwide.