Bosnia and Herzegovina in danger

It seems as if the fates suddenly agreed to heat up the atmosphere by awakening dormant crises with no apparent connection between them, although perhaps there is one. This is what is happening now with Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Bosnia-Herzegovina (B-H). All of them were once immersed, if not within the borders of the old Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, to which the first three belonged, then at least in its sphere of influence, as is the case of the last one, separated from Marshal Tito's Yugoslavia.

In Belarus and Kazakhstan, people are showing signs of weariness at the lack of freedom thirty years after gaining independence because power is still in the hands of autocrats who are heirs to the old Soviet nomenklatura, men who are completely alien to the changes the world has undergone over the last three decades and of whom Akeksandr Lukashenko, "Europe's last dictator", and Kassim Khomart Tokayev are unworthy representatives. In Ukraine, this weariness manifested itself a few years ago, in 2013, with the Euromaidan revolution that drove Viktor Yanukovych from power when he vetoed an association agreement with the European Union at the Kremlin's behest. The Kiev government's slide towards the West and the Kremlin's overwhelming sense of NATO encirclement explain Russia's reaction, which is now threatening Ukraine's borders with a massive military deployment. The truth is that Putin's nerves are understandable because "when you see your neighbour's beard trimmed, soak your own". Russia's population is not immune to these desires for greater levels of participation and democracy that are being ruthlessly suppressed, as Aleksei Navalny is well aware. The question is, until when?

And now Bosnia and Herzegovina has been added to this ceremony of turmoil by a nationalist leader of the Serb minority, Milovad Dodic, who is accused of corruption and seems to have gone rogue, threatening the very complicated constitutional architecture of that state, achieved at the Dayton (Ohio) military base by the United States (Richard Holbrooke) with great effort, and with a great deal of effort.
 
Holbrooke) with much effort, imagination and arm-twisting by Milosevic (Serbia), Tudman (Croatia) and Izetbegovic (Bosnian Muslims), the leaders of the country's three ethnic communities. I know this because I was there as part of a European delegation headed by Carl Bildt. The aim of the exercise was to end three years of merciless and brutal war in the heart of Europe, a contest that had seen barbarities committed by nationalists of all stripes and in particular by Ratko Mladic, convicted by the Hague Tribunal of genocide after the terrible massacre of Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica to the shameful passivity of Dutch UN troops.

In Dayton, a unique, dysfunctional, multi-ethnic political structure was created between the SRPSKA Republic, which wanted to join Serbia, and a Federation of Croats and Bosnian Muslims, itself divided into ten cantons, each with its own government. Executive power is exercised by three presidents, one for each community, who meet every 15 days, or should meet because they have not done so since last October. And now Dodic is threatening not to recognise the judiciary or the tax authority, and to remove Serbs from the common multi-ethnic army and also from the intelligence service. In other words, he intends to dynamite the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, starting down a "dangerous and slippery" path, as the UN High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, has said, adding that we are without doubt facing "the greatest existential threat" to Bosnia and Herzegovina. For if it succeeds, the country could break up.

While the EU ponders whether to impose sanctions of any kind, Hungarian President Viktor Orban, known for his clearly illiberal stances, has travelled to Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska, to lend support to Dodic, who says he also has the support of Serbia, although without much enthusiasm (because of the consequences it could bring), and of Russia itself, where he travelled to meet Putin, who should not be unhappy to see another cause for concern for Europe and who in any case should not see what is happening in a bad light because it puts stones in the way of a future and still distant eventual EU and NATO membership for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Jorge Dezcallar, Ambassador of Spain