More than fish and sausages
Paris and London have long been "at each other's throats" and Brexit is to blame because the British want it all, the advantages of being outside Europe by regaining sovereignty and independence, without losing those of being inside in economic and commercial matters, and Paris does not agree and says so loud and clear. Fish and sausages seem and are minor issues, and yet they are at the heart of the dispute that these days has pitted the French and British against each other and which, naturally, covers major disagreements between the two countries since the UK voted for Brexit in Cameron's frivolously called referendum.
The dispute over fish is insignificant from an economic point of view, as what the French fish in British waters barely amounts to 5 million euros in a very important bilateral trade relationship. But it rains on wet ground because it strikes a chord, as the French believe that London is not complying with the Brexit agreement that allowed the fishing boats that have traditionally done so to continue fishing in its waters, and because the reduction in licences affects an influential sector on the eve of elections that do not allow Macron's government to show signs of weakness in the face of the threat from the nationalist right of Marie Le Pen and Eric Zémmour. And so, it reacted firmly by raising the tone of the dispute, at one point threatening to cut off the electricity it sends across the English Channel, to make the passage of goods more difficult by further controlling lorries and to open up the possibility of a trade war. Since then, the waters seem to have calmed down somewhat.
The problem is greater because the UK's exit from Europe breaks the balance of power between the big three and leaves France alone as a junior partner vis-à-vis Germany, even though it has the advantage of being the continent's only nuclear power. Moreover, France is in a "standoff" with the UK, which is a party to the AUKUS Treaty that has led to Australia cancelling a dozen French diesel-powered submarines in exchange for American technology to build them with nuclear propulsion. The aggravating factor is that Paris, which has possessions in the Pacific Ocean, has seen "political neglect" in addition to the economic loss and loss of prestige that the sale entailed. French anger has been directed primarily at Australia and then at the United States, while maliciously implying that the British had little say in the matter because they are a junior partner in the pact. But it has undoubtedly been one more element that has contributed to further inflaming the atmosphere.
Macron and Johnson already engaged in another dispute over sausages entering Northern Ireland at a meeting in Cornwall last June. London has made no secret of its irritation that the agreement it signed with Brussels obliges it to set up a maritime border to avoid undermining the Good Friday Agreement by installing a land border between Ireland and Ulster. Johnson is under great pressure from the Unionist parties who consider the agreement "a betrayal" and who have brought violence back to the streets of Belfast and Derry, although he probably played dirty from the outset and never intended to comply with the agreement, which also gives the EU Court of Justice oversight of compliance. Another flag of fire! Brussels has made some concessions by softening the controls in place, but flatly refusing to reopen the signed text and threatening to suspend the Trade Agreement concluded last January, and if that were to happen things would get very complicated between Brussels and London, and not only in the commercial but also in the political sphere.
As long as things do not get out of hand, the dispute is good for Macron to inflame nationalist sentiments and take votes away from the right, and it is not bad for Johnson either at a time when he is seeing harmful effects of Brexit, which he does not want to acknowledge, in the form of petrol, food and medicine shortages, which are problems he blames on Europe and not on Brexit.