Solidarity with our southern neighbours

The saying goes that there is no bad situation that cannot get worse. And that is what is happening around the Mediterranean Sea, where the pandemic has exacerbated the legacy of the Arab Spring because such serious problems as the peoples' frustrated yearnings for freedom and dignity and the failure of their political and economic modernisation processes remain unresolved, the integration of religious movements into public life (except in the case of Ennahda in Tunisia and the Justice and Development Party in Morocco, which have opted for cohabitation), or the struggle between Shia and Sunni, among other equally serious and pressing issues, such as the wars under way in Syria, Libya and Yemen, or the constitutional instability in Lebanon. There is no shortage of problems.

In the Mediterranean basin, Spain, France and Italy have paid a high price for the COVID-19 both in human lives and in economic terms (Portugal and Greece have been better off, at least for the time being), but they are countries with a strong health and economic structure that has enabled them to address the situation with sufficient resources to ease the serious social crisis that accompanies the economic recession. At least so far. They have put in place Keynesian policies to put money into the system to try and keep jobs, they have added ERTEs, living wages and other support to the people and companies most affected and they have powerful support programmes from the European Union. In spite of this, we have created one million unemployed in Spain in the last quarter.

But this is unfortunately not the case in the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the old Mare Nostrum that lack this financial muscles, whose high indebtedness and low reserves do not allow them to rejoice, have high percentages of informal economy that requires people to go out to work in order to eat every day, and on top of which, in addition to the pandemic, four problems that are difficult to manage have suddenly been brought down, even more so when they arrive together: the fall in tourism, that of remittances from emigrants, that of exports and, as if that were not enough, the drop in the price of crude oil. Individually speaking, these are very severe blows; together they are a catastrophe: as an example, tourism accounts for 15% of Egypt's GDP, 14% in Jordan, 12% in Tunisia and 8% in Morocco. And remittances from migrants working in Europe account for 11% of the GDP in Egypt, 10% in Jordan, 6% in Morocco... while Iraq's income is 90% dependent on oil and something similar occurs in Algeria. The economic recession and the drop in European imports do the rest. These are just a few examples that are further complicated by the health crisis if we consider that half the population has no medical coverage, two-thirds have no retirement pension, and their health systems are insufficient with the exception of those of the Gulf countries, which are much better equipped. Younger populations, and therefore perhaps more resistant to the virus, can play in their favour. Their statistics are also more inaccurate because of the difficulties of tracing and diagnosis.

Under these conditions, tightening one's belt is not an option, but a necessity: Iran's GDP will fall by 15% this year and it has already had to double the price of petrol, while Lebanon, with an external debt of 176% of GDP and runaway inflation, has devalued the pound and stopped paying its debt. People are not happy and the end of subsidies and the rise in unemployment are bringing protests that are being harshly suppressed in some countries such as Iraq, Lebanon or Iran; while in others demonstrations are banned, conveniently invoking the risk of contagion, as in Algeria. But the malaise is growing and although we in Europe now have a difficult situation, it is a mistake to ignore the situation of our southern neighbours.

Added to that are unresolved political problems that run from one end of this turbulent region to the other: such as the Sahara problem, which continues to hinder the desirable process of Maghreb integration, Turkey's tension with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel over the gas reserves discovered in the eastern Mediterranean, and the same dispute between the United States and Iran over their regional and uranium enrichment policy, This would put an end to the Oslo process in one fell swoop, to the possibility of two states living together, and to the Palestinian Authority itself, which would not easily survive or would be badly affected in the best of cases. For the time being, the risk has been postponed in view of the recent agreement on the normalisation of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, sponsored by Donald Trump's administration, which is designed to postpone this annexation and sell sophisticated security and military equipment to Abu Dhabi (there is talk of F-35 fighters). And as if that were not enough, the three wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya show no signs of abating, creating terrible humanitarian problems that are exacerbated by the intervention of foreign powers, each with its own agenda that is incompatible with the others. The same foreign interference is affecting Lebanon's constitutional crisis, which has been worsened by the catastrophe caused by the explosion of ammonium nitrate carelessly stored in its port.

And together with these unresolved problems, the regional importance of non-state actors is growing and must be taken into account, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Hutus in Yemen, the Kurds in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran, and the Southern Yemeni Council itself, which is calling for a secession that would split the country in two. Never forgetting Daesh, who is showing signs of wanting to revive after the military defeat, and the old al-Qaeda. The more actors there are, the more complicated the agreements are.

All these problems make it very difficult for many of the countries on the southern shore to muster the attention and effort required to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. And it is in our interest to help them not only out of humanitarian solidarity but also out of selfishness, because if there is one thing we are learning from the outbreaks it is that the pandemic does not stop at borders and that it is a threat to humanity as a whole. In other words, we will not be safe as long as others - and in particular our neighbours on the southern flank - are not safe too. And I am not just talking about the pandemic. That is why it is in our interest to help you in this time of great need.

Jorge Dezcallar.

Ambassador of Spain