Transformation in Venezuela
- Attention to possible asymmetric warfare
- Economic situation
- Social and humanitarian situation
- International implications
- Future prospects
These include the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who were transferred to US territory to face serious charges related to activities linked to narco-terrorism, according to the indictment by the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, which could lead to more than 20 years in prison.
Maduro, who took power in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chávez, had consolidated a government characterised by authoritarian control, with constant and corroborated allegations of electoral manipulation, suppression of dissent and connections to transnational criminal networks, such as groups involved in drug trafficking. This arrest has sparked an outburst of jubilation among large sectors of the opposition population, who perceive this event as the closing of a chapter of oppression that has led to economic ruin and a mass exodus of citizens. However, the US intervention has drawn global criticism for being considered a violation of basic principles of sovereignty and has raised questions about the country's immediate future.
In this context, the Venezuelan opposition emerges as a major player, albeit fragmented and weakened by years of repression. Key figures such as María Corina Machado, a charismatic leader with strong popular support, were politically disqualified by the regime, limiting their participation in recent electoral processes. Machado represents a conservative and liberal sector that advocates for profound economic reforms and a restoration of democracy, emphasising the need for transparent elections and the dismantling of corrupt structures. Another relevant name is Edmundo González, who in the 2024 elections obtained broad support according to independent records, demonstrating that he won the real victory (currently in Spain). However, the opposition faces internal challenges: divisions between moderate and radical factions, forced exile of leaders, and a lack of strategic unity. Many opponents, from exile in places such as Madrid or Miami, cautiously celebrate Maduro's fall but insist on a peaceful transition led by Venezuelans, fearing that a prolonged external administration will generate more instability. The opposition has documented for years how the regime turned the country into a sanctuary for criminal activities, with strategic alliances with foreign powers complicating any change. Now, with Maduro out, there is an opportunity for the opposition to push for an interim government, but the risk of a power vacuum could dilute their influence if they do not organise quickly.
Attention to possible asymmetric warfare
Another critical element is the latent danger of militias organised by the regime. These forces, known as the ‘Bolivarian Militia,’ number millions of civilian and military members trained in guerrilla tactics, conventional weapons handling, and improvised explosives. Created as a popular reserve to defend the ‘revolution,’ they have been trained in asymmetric warfare scenarios, inspired by models such as historical insurgencies in the region. Their doctrine emphasises dispersion in difficult terrain, sabotage, ambushes, and surprise attacks to wear down an enemy superior in technology and resources. In the coming weeks, if effective demobilisation is not achieved, these groups could reorganise into autonomous cells, operating as guerrillas in rural or urban areas, exacerbating the chaos. The regular Venezuelan army, although weakened by desertion and lack of maintenance, could fragment into ‘decapitated units’ that form criminal fiefdoms, allying themselves with loyal Chavista remnants. This threat is not hypothetical; previous military exercises have simulated responses to invasions, prioritising the creation of a ‘strategic quagmire’ that would make any occupation unsustainable. Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, who is assuming interim duties, faces internal and external pressure to call elections, but the spectre of armed resistance complicates the picture. International leaders have expressed alarm at the humanitarian potential of an escalation, while the US government has warned against any cooperation with residual elements of the regime.
Economic situation
Venezuela's economy has suffered a deep collapse under the Chavista-Madurista model, with GDP falling by nearly 80% since 2013 and episodes of hyperinflation exceeding one million per cent in recent years. The country's almost total dependence on oil, which accounts for the bulk of its exports, has been exacerbated by production falling from millions of barrels per day to critical levels due to corruption, lack of investment and external restrictions. Currently, inflation remains high, unemployment affects a third of the population, and per capita income is minimal, leaving most in extreme poverty. Basic wages are laughably low, insufficient to cover basic needs, while policies such as expropriations and price controls have stifled private initiative.
Maduro's removal could open avenues for recovery, with plans to revitalise the oil sector through foreign investment, which would influence global markets by increasing supply. However, deteriorating infrastructure and accumulated debt represent significant barriers. Resources that were previously allocated to control apparatus could now be redirected to reconstruction, but the transition depends on stability to attract capital.
Social and humanitarian situation
The country faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, primarily affecting hundreds of political prisoners who are tortured in opaque detention centres, such as El Helicoide, which is run by Minister Diosdado Cabello, who is also accused in the same case as Maduro. In the region, millions have emigrated since 2014, constituting one of the largest global displacements. Malnutrition, medicine shortages and the collapse of public services have led to massive weight loss in the population and an increase in preventable diseases. Hospitals and schools operate intermittently, with frequent power and water cuts. Society is divided, with daily violence and polarisation that has eroded the social fabric.
Following the capture, there are reports of relief in the streets, but also concern about the uncertainty. The intervention could exacerbate divisions, although it offers hope for a return to democracy. Remittances from emigrants remain vital for the survival of families.
International implications
US action alters the regional balance: allies of the regime such as Russia, Iran and China see their influence diminished, while warnings are issued against other countries. Critics point to inconsistencies in anti-drug trafficking policies. Europe and Latin America are divided, with some supporting the change and others warning of risky precedents. Venezuela had served as a base for activities affecting its neighbours, including migration and criminal flows.
Future prospects
Without Maduro, there is room for free elections and economic reforms, but risks of instability remain, such as armed resistance or prolonged interventions. Diversification beyond oil, along with institutional reconstruction and humanitarian aid, are essential. Vast reserves of natural resources attract external interests, but without profound changes, the cycle of crisis could repeat itself.