Depolarising Washington

Various Spanish correspondents and most polls on voting intentions in the United States agree that the manifest destiny of the 2024 presidential elections will be a confrontation between President Biden and Donald Trump.  

With a more than 27-point lead over the Republican Party candidates in the run-up to the primaries that begin in ten weeks, the former president holds a commanding lead over his rivals. Even as the pre-election debates, in which Trump does not participate, are gaining interest in public opinion and his two main opponents, the moderate Nikki Haley and the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, reach a voting intention of 16%, which encourages expectations for the first consultations in Iowa and New Hampshire.  

Haley drew on her foreign policy experience as ambassador to the United Nations in the last debate, when the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have partially displaced domestic issues. And she wore dainty heels to make credible the candidacy of a liberal woman who aspires to mobilise the Republican centrist vote, silenced for several elections by the spectre of polarisation.  

But polarisation, or in other words the radicalisation of American politics, has become a topic for reflection in many American households, where the clashes between Washington politicians are seen as a corrosive trend that is undermining the values of democracy. "We share common values about family, freedom, democracy, dignity and the belief that together we can meet any challenge," said Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. A conservative profile of the Democratic Party to whom some close followers attribute the intention of leading a third party with a centrist orientation far removed from the proposals of the ultra-progressive sectors. A party that would have its origins in the new "No Labels" movement, which brings together leaders and citizens fed up with the demagogic and radicalised drift into which the world's leading democracy has entered.  

Wishful thinking and reality are often confused in politics. But the emergence of new politicians in the Republican Party and moderate groups could open up the bland landscape of the 2024 presidential elections. Moreover, given that the wars in Ukraine and Palestine and the active foreign policy of Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the public is now aware of the need for the United States to regain international prominence in order to stabilise the complex world order.  

If cultural battles lose weight and allow Haley to overlook issues such as abortion, and economic and international cooperation issues gain prominence, the 2024 elections could dispel three doubts that are now present in the press and in a growing part of American public opinion: whether any of the new Republican candidates will be able to beat Donald Trump, which is unlikely; whether Biden would be able to beat any candidate other than Trump himself, which is even less likely; and whether Donald Trump himself could serve as president, even if he is convicted in any of his current trials, which is inconceivable.