China, the size of the machines and the strategic crossroads of offshore wind power
- Optimal size of offshore wind turbines and LCoE
- Power per unit versus standardised technology
- Planning variables: logistics, grid and global competition
- Wind power as a systemic challenge
In recent months, news from Europe has reported a new wave that could sweep away the old balance in the wind industry: large Chinese companies manufacturing wind turbines and their entry into the European market is no longer a hypothesis: it is a reality in the making. After years of technological leadership, Europe is seeing companies with enormous industrial capacity and state support positioning themselves in its territory, driven by competitive costs, excess production capacity in Asia and aggressive commercial strategies, including deferred payment terms that are now tempting even the most cautious developers.
It is not just about price. A deeper reflection is on the table: what does it mean for European industrial security that a substantial part of critical equipment comes from outside its own technological base? The question has even been raised in terms of defence and technological sovereignty, with debates about whether certain equipment could, in the worst case, be vectors of vulnerability rather than clean energy generation.
Optimal size of offshore wind turbines and LCoE
Meanwhile, the offshore wind industry faces its own technical-economic conundrum: the optimal size of offshore turbines. The logic of growth has guided the progress of wind turbines since their inception: ever-larger rotors, imposing heights, blades that resemble helicopter blades, and a constant promise of reducing the LCoE (Levelised Cost of Energy) as nominal power increases.
However, experts and more recent analyses point out that this race for size has practical limits. Studies on farm optimisation and cost minimisation show that, for typical parameters in the North Sea (with constant and well-characterised winds), the balance between cost and optimal production is around ~15–16 MW turbines with ~230 m rotors. Beyond this threshold, marginal improvements in LCoE become increasingly smaller, and technical, logistical and grid integration complexity grows non-linearly.
This conclusion does not contradict the general trend: the engineering and market community is pushing towards larger and more efficient machines. Various analyses (including studies by organisations such as the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory) show that the technology platform is consolidating around these power ranges while advanced designs are being adapted to reduce costs and risks associated with size.
Power per unit versus standardised technology
But here comes the paradox: what weighs more heavily in the planning of a large-scale offshore project: the ambition for maximum power per unit or the robustness and simplicity of standardised and proven technology?
Responding sensibly requires looking beyond nominal megawatts. It involves considering:
Planning variables: logistics, grid and global competition
Logistics and supply chain: the transport, installation and maintenance of gigantic machines have a direct impact on CAPEX and the construction schedule.
Grid and market effects: how that energy is absorbed into electricity systems with different demand profiles and wholesale markets with variable prices.
Industrial innovation versus global competition: while Europe debates protection and openness, China and other players are expanding production capacity, with products increasingly adapted to different climatic and economic conditions.
Wind power as a systemic challenge
In conclusion, the challenge for professionals in the sector is not technological or economic in isolation, but systemic. Offshore wind (and wind power in general) is no longer just a race towards bigger machines or more efficient panels. It is a strategic competition involving supply, financing, industrial policy, technological integration and long-term vision.
The wind will continue to blow, but the direction we take to capture it will determine which industries survive and which are transformed.
Juan Antonio Vidal, plant manager InCom Composites Morocco SARL