Palestine, the eternal conflict

At the end of January 2020, the White House hosted one of the most eagerly awaited events by many citizens of the United States, Israel and the Arab world. President Donald Trump unveiled the so-called "Deal of the Century": a peace agreement that aims to end seven decades of ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian authorities. According to the main architect of the proposal, Jared Kushner (a businessman with no experience in the world of diplomacy who is married to Trump's daughter, Ivanka), the Deal of the Century is a historic achievement that will succeed in unblocking the Arab-Israeli conflict. However, there are reasons to doubt the viability of the deal.

For one thing, for a deal to be a deal, it must integrate the two parties concerned, in this case Israel and Palestine. But the Deal of the Century has been negotiated exclusively by the governments of the United States and Israel. Trump made it clear from the beginning of his term that he would favor the state of Israel like few presidents before him, and this was reflected in several controversial decisions, such as recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel (an old claim of most Israelis). That decision, in December 2017, led to the Palestinian authorities breaking off all contact with the White House, as Jerusalem is considered the capital of the Palestinians. As a result, the government of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas did not participate in the negotiations of the Deal of the Century.

That brings us to 2020. After several months of delay, the US administration made public the peace treaty which, as expected, is clearly tilted in favour of Israel or, at least, of the demands of its government, led by Binyamin Netanyahu. One of the most striking components of the agreement is the annexation of the Jordan Valley to Israel. Although officially part of Palestine, the Jordan Valley has been controlled by Israel since 1994. The annexation of this narrow border region with Jordan is an old election promise of Netanyahu and the Israeli right-wing parties, which is fulfilled thanks to Trump and his Deal of the Century.

The concessions to Israel do not end there. The agreement also allows for the annexation to Israel of almost a third of the West Bank, one of the two separate territories that make up Palestine (the other is the sadly known Gaza Strip). It also allows for the annexation of the dozens of Israeli settlements scattered throughout Palestinian territory, considered illegal by most of the international community (including the European Union). As they are scattered throughout Palestine, the consequences of such annexations would be unpredictable, as ensuring Israeli sovereignty in the colonies would require the development of an intricate (and costly) network of roads and security systems that would effectively segregate Palestinian population centres. For Palestinian President Abbas, the Deal of the Century would cause Palestine to end up like a "Swiss cheese", pierced, crossed, segregated.

In exchange for giving up a large part of the West Bank, Israel would give up a deserted and virtually uninhabited area south of the Gaza Strip to be populated by Palestinian workers. According to the agreement, the idea is to transform this barren area into a centre of technological development in which both Israel and Palestine participate, but this seems too ambitious and even unrealistic a proposal, at least in the mid-term. Nor will Israel be able to expand its aforementioned colonies for four years, although it will be able to annex the existing ones.

Nor will the Palestinians see their historic demand for Jerusalem as their capital fulfilled: the Deal of the Century envisages that the Palestinian capital will be the small town of Abu Dis, east of Jerusalem and separated from it by a wall. This is a cession without any real value, since Abu Dis does not have the political, cultural or religious relevance for Palestine that Jerusalem does.

So, given that the Palestinian government refuses the deal outright, it looks dead on arrival, dead at birth. Even so, it is possible that, in the mid-term, the Palestinian Authority, which Trump has allowed a few years to reconsider its position, will have no choice but to accept at least some of the conditions of the pact in order to have a voice in the international arena.

The Palestinian demand for self-determination, once one of the main common causes of the entire Arab community, has less and less support. At the White House presentation of the Deal of the Century, the presence of the ambassadors of Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates was remarkable. This seems to indicate that these Arab countries have stopped prioritizing the Palestinian cause and instead are gradually normalizing their relations with Israel. Support for the Deal of the Century has been timid on the part of the Saudi Arabian government, but sufficient to make it clear that they will not oppose the conditions agreed between Netanyahu and Trump. Without the support of the Arab community, the formation of a Palestinian state is an increasingly remote possibility.

There remains one unanswered question in the Palestinian-Israeli mess. In November 2020, the United States will hold presidential elections, and should the Democratic Party candidate (or, very unlikely, female candidate) win, more measured support for Israel's government can be expected thereafter. Although all Democratic candidates have declared their support for Israel, they are usually more critical of Netanyahu's policies, and several have rejected the Deal of the Century.

In any case, whoever is in the White House a year from now, it is clear that the Palestinian Authority is losing allies in the international community, and with it, its demands (mainly self-determination, sovereignty and the recovery of the pre-Treaty of the Century borders) are progressively falling into oblivion.